Dataset Information

Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Targeting most-at-risk individuals with HIV preventive interventions is cost-effective. We developed gender-specific indices to measure risk of HIV among sexually active individuals in Rakai, Uganda.

Methods

We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time-to-HIV infection associated with candidate predictors. Reduced models were determined using backward selection procedures with Akaike's information criterion (AIC) as the stopping rule. Model discrimination was determined using Harrell's concordance index (c index). Model calibration was determined graphically. Nomograms were used to present the final prediction models.

Results

We used samples of 7,497 women and 5,783 men. 342 new infections occurred among females (incidence 1.11/100 person years,) and 225 among the males (incidence 1.00/100 person years). The final model for men included age, education, circumcision status, number of sexual partners, genital ulcer disease symptoms, alcohol use before sex, partner in high risk employment, community type, being unaware of a partner's HIV status and community HIV prevalence. The Model's optimism-corrected c index was 69.1 percent (95% CI?=?0.66, 0.73). The final women's model included age, marital status, education, number of sex partners, new sex partner, alcohol consumption by self or partner before sex, concurrent sexual partners, being employed in a high-risk occupation, having genital ulcer disease symptoms, community HIV prevalence, and perceiving oneself or partner to be exposed to HIV. The models optimism-corrected c index was 0.67 (95% CI?=?0.64, 0.70). Both models were well calibrated.

Conclusion

These indices were discriminative and well calibrated. This provides proof-of-concept that population-based HIV risk indices can be developed. Further research to validate these indices for other populations is needed.

SUBMITTER: Kagaayi J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3976261 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.

Kagaayi Joseph J Gray Ronald H RH Whalen Christopher C Fu Pingfu P Neuhauser Duncan D McGrath Janet W JW Sewankambo Nelson K NK Serwadda David D Kigozi Godfrey G Nalugoda Fred F Reynolds Steven J SJ Wawer Maria J MJ Singer Mendel E ME

PloS one 20140404 4

<h4>Introduction</h4>Targeting most-at-risk individuals with HIV preventive interventions is cost-effective. We developed gender-specific indices to measure risk of HIV among sexually active individuals in Rakai, Uganda.<h4>Methods</h4>We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time-to-HIV infection associated with candidate predictors. Reduced models were determined using backward selection procedures with Akaike's information criterion (AIC) as the stopping rule. Model d ...[more]

PMID: 24704778

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Project description:BackgroundIn sub-Saharan Africa, migrants typically have higher HIV prevalence than non-migrants; however, whether HIV acquisition typically precedes or follows migration is unknown. We aimed to investigate the risk of HIV after migration in Rakai District, Uganda.MethodsIn a prospective population-based cohort of HIV-negative participants aged 15-49 years in Rakai, Uganda, between April 6, 1999, and Jan 30, 2015, we assessed the association between migration and HIV acquisition. Individuals were classified as recent in-migrants (≤2 years in community), non-recent in-migrants (>2 years in community), or permanent residents with no migration history. The primary outcome was incident HIV infection. We used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of HIV associated with residence status with adjustment for demographics, sexual behaviours, and time. Data were also stratified and analysed within three periods (1999-2004, 2005-11, and 2011-15) in relation to the introduction of combination HIV prevention (CHP; pre-CHP, early CHP, and late CHP).FindingsAmong 26 995 HIV-negative people who participated in the Rakai Community Cohort Study survey, 15 187 (56%) contributed one or more follow-up visits (89 292 person-years of follow-up) and were included in our final analysis. 4451 (29%) were ever in-migrants and 10 736 (71%) were permanent residents. 841 incident HIV events occurred, including 243 (29%) among in-migrants. HIV incidence per 100 person-years was significantly increased among recent in-migrants compared with permanent residents, for both women (1·92, 95% CI 1·52-2·43 vs 0·93, 0·84-1·04; IRR adjusted for demographics 1·75, 95% CI 1·33-2·33) and men (1·52, 0·99-2·33 vs 0·84, 0·74-0·94; 1·74, 1·12-2·71), but not among non-recent in-migrants (IRR adjusted for demographics 0·94, 95% CI 0·74-1·19 for women and 1·28, 0·94-1·74 for men). Between the pre-CHP and late-CHP periods, HIV incidence declined among permanent resident men (p<0·0001) and women (p=0·002) and non-recent in-migrant men (p=0·031), but was unchanged among non-recent in-migrant women (p=0·13) and recent in-migrants (men p=0·76; women p=0·84) INTERPRETATION: The first 2 years after migration are associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition. Prevention programmes focused on migrants are needed to reduce HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa.FundingNational Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Division of Intramural Research, National Institutes of Health; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research.

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Dataset Information

Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.

Similar Datasets

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