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Model-based analysis of costs and outcomes of non-invasive prenatal testing for Down's syndrome using cell free fetal DNA in the UK National Health Service.

ABSTRACT: Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down's syndrome (DS) using cell free fetal DNA in maternal blood has the potential to dramatically alter the way prenatal screening and diagnosis is delivered. Before NIPT can be implemented into routine practice, information is required on its costs and benefits. We investigated the costs and outcomes of NIPT for DS as contingent testing and as first-line testing compared with the current DS screening programme in the UK National Health Service.We used a pre-existing model to evaluate the costs and outcomes associated with NIPT compared with the current DS screening programme. The analysis was based on a hypothetical screening population of 10,000 pregnant women. Model inputs were taken from published sources. The main outcome measures were number of DS cases detected, number of procedure-related miscarriages and total cost.At a screening risk cut-off of 1?150 NIPT as contingent testing detects slightly fewer DS cases, has fewer procedure-related miscarriages, and costs the same as current DS screening (around UK£280,000) at a cost of £500 per NIPT. As first-line testing NIPT detects more DS cases, has fewer procedure-related miscarriages, and is more expensive than current screening at a cost of £50 per NIPT. When NIPT uptake increases, NIPT detects more DS cases with a small increase in procedure-related miscarriages and costs.NIPT is currently available in the private sector in the UK at a price of £400-£900. If the NHS cost was at the lower end of this range then at a screening risk cut-off of 1?150 NIPT as contingent testing would be cost neutral or cost saving compared with current DS screening. As first-line testing NIPT is likely to produce more favourable outcomes but at greater cost. Further research is needed to evaluate NIPT under real world conditions.

SUBMITTER: Morris S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3979704 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Model-based analysis of costs and outcomes of non-invasive prenatal testing for Down's syndrome using cell free fetal DNA in the UK National Health Service.

Morris Stephen S Karlsen Saffron S Chung Nancy N Hill Melissa M Chitty Lyn S LS

PloS one 20140408 4

<h4>Background</h4>Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down's syndrome (DS) using cell free fetal DNA in maternal blood has the potential to dramatically alter the way prenatal screening and diagnosis is delivered. Before NIPT can be implemented into routine practice, information is required on its costs and benefits. We investigated the costs and outcomes of NIPT for DS as contingent testing and as first-line testing compared with the current DS screening programme in the UK National Healt ...[more]

PMID: 24714162

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Project description:Objective To investigate the benefits and costs of implementing non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down's syndrome into the NHS maternity care pathway.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting Eight maternity units across the United Kingdom between 1 November 2013 and 28 February 2015.Participants All pregnant women with a current Down's syndrome risk on screening of at least 1/1000.Main outcome measures Outcomes were uptake of NIPT, number of cases of Down's syndrome detected, invasive tests performed, and miscarriages avoided. Pregnancy outcomes and costs associated with implementation of NIPT, compared with current screening, were determined using study data on NIPT uptake and invasive testing in combination with national datasets.Results NIPT was prospectively offered to 3175 pregnant women. In 934 women with a Down's syndrome risk greater than 1/150, 695 (74.4%) chose NIPT, 166 (17.8%) chose invasive testing, and 73 (7.8%) declined further testing. Of 2241 women with risks between 1/151 and 1/1000, 1799 (80.3%) chose NIPT. Of 71 pregnancies with a confirmed diagnosis of Down's syndrome, 13/42 (31%) with the diagnosis after NIPT and 2/29 (7%) after direct invasive testing continued, resulting in 12 live births. In an annual screening population of 698 500, offering NIPT as a contingent test to women with a Down's syndrome screening risk of at least 1/150 would increase detection by 195 (95% uncertainty interval -34 to 480) cases with 3368 (2279 to 4027) fewer invasive tests and 17 (7 to 30) fewer procedure related miscarriages, for a non-significant difference in total costs (£-46 000, £-1 802 000 to £2 661 000). The marginal cost of NIPT testing strategies versus current screening is very sensitive to NIPT costs; at a screening threshold of 1/150, NIPT would be cheaper than current screening if it cost less than £256. Lowering the risk threshold increases the number of Down's syndrome cases detected and overall costs, while maintaining the reduction in invasive tests and procedure related miscarriages.Conclusions Implementation of NIPT as a contingent test within a public sector Down's syndrome screening programme can improve quality of care, choices for women, and overall performance within the current budget. As some women use NIPT for information only, the Down's syndrome live birth rate may not change significantly. Future research should consider NIPT uptake and informed decision making outside of a research setting.

Project description:BackgroundMassively parallel sequencing of maternal cell-free DNA (cfDNA) is widely used to test fetal genetic abnormalities in non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). However, sequencing-based approaches are still of high cost. Building upon previous knowledge that placenta, the main source of fetal circulating DNA, is hypomethylated in comparison to maternal tissue counterparts of cfDNA, we propose that targeting either unmodified or 5-hydroxymethylated CG sites specifically enriches fetal genetic material and reduces numbers of required analytical sequencing reads thereby decreasing cost of a test.MethodsWe employed uTOPseq and hmTOP-seq approaches which combine covalent derivatization of unmodified or hydroxymethylated CG sites, respectively, with next generation sequencing, or quantitative real-time PCR.ResultsWe detected increased 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) levels in fetal chorionic villi (CV) tissue samples as compared with peripheral blood. Using our previously developed uTOP-seq and hmTOP-seq approaches we obtained whole-genome uCG and 5hmCG maps of 10 CV tissue and 38 cfDNA samples in total. Our results indicated that, in contrast to conventional whole genome sequencing, such epigenomic analysis highly specifically enriches fetal DNA fragments from maternal cfDNA. While both our approaches yielded 100% accuracy in detecting Down syndrome in fetuses, hmTOP-seq maintained such accuracy at ultra-low sequencing depths using only one million reads. We identified 2164 and 1589 placenta-specific differentially modified and 5-hydroxymethylated regions, respectively, in chromosome 21, as well as 3490 and 2002 Down syndrome-specific differentially modified and 5-hydroxymethylated regions, respectively, that can be used as biomarkers for identification of Down syndrome or other epigenetic diseases of a fetus.ConclusionsuTOP-seq and hmTOP-seq approaches provide a cost-efficient and sensitive epigenetic analysis of fetal abnormalities in maternal cfDNA. The results demonstrated that T21 fetuses contain a perturbed epigenome and also indicated that fetal cfDNA might originate from fetal tissues other than placental chorionic villi. Robust covalent derivatization followed by targeted analysis of fetal DNA by sequencing or qPCR presents an attractive strategy that could help achieve superior sensitivity and specificity in prenatal diagnostics.

Project description:ObjectiveTo identify pregnancies at increased risk for trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy attributable to low fetal fraction (FF).MethodsA FF-based risk (FFBR) model was built using data from more than 165 000 singleton pregnancies referred for single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). Based on maternal weight and gestational age (GA), FF distributions for normal, trisomy 13, trisomy 18 and triploid pregnancies were constructed and used to adjust prior risks for these abnormalities. A risk cut-off of ≥ 1% was chosen to define pregnancies at high risk for trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy (high FFBR score). The model was evaluated on an independent blinded set of pregnancies for which SNP-based NIPT did not return a result, and for which pregnancy outcome information was gathered retrospectively.ResultsThe evaluation cohort comprised 1148 cases, of which approximately half received a high FFBR score. Compared with rates expected based on maternal age (MA) and GA, cases with a high FFBR score had a significantly increased rate of trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy combined (5.7% vs 0.7%; P < 0.001) and also of unexplained pregnancy loss (14.7% vs 10.4%; P < 0.001). For cases that did not receive a high FFBR score, the incidence of a chromosomal abnormality or pregnancy loss was not significantly different from that expected based on MA and GA. In this study cohort, the sensitivity of the FFBR model for detection of trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy was 91.4% (95% CI, 76.9-98.2%) with a positive predictive value of 5.7% (32/564; 95% CI, 3.9-7.9%).ConclusionsFor pregnancies with a FF too low to receive a result on standard NIPT, the FFBR algorithm identified a subset of cases at increased risk for trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy. For the remainder of cases, the risk of a fetal chromosomal abnormality was unchanged from that expected based on MA and GA. © 2018 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Dataset Information

Model-based analysis of costs and outcomes of non-invasive prenatal testing for Down's syndrome using cell free fetal DNA in the UK National Health Service.

Publications

Model-based analysis of costs and outcomes of non-invasive prenatal testing for Down's syndrome using cell free fetal DNA in the UK National Health Service.

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