Dataset Information

Spatial analysis on human brucellosis incidence in mainland China: 2004-2010.

ABSTRACT: China has experienced a sharply increasing rate of human brucellosis in recent years. Effective spatial monitoring of human brucellosis incidence is very important for successful implementation of control and prevention programmes. The purpose of this paper is to apply exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods and the empirical Bayes (EB) smoothing technique to monitor county-level incidence rates for human brucellosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2010 by examining spatial patterns.ESDA methods were used to characterise spatial patterns of EB smoothed incidence rates for human brucellosis based on county-level data obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP) in mainland China from 2004 to 2010.EB smoothed incidence rates for human brucellosis were spatially dependent during 2004-2010. The local Moran test identified significantly high-risk clusters of human brucellosis (all p values <0.01), which persisted during the 7-year study period. High-risk counties were centred in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and other Northern provinces (ie, Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces) around the border with the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region where animal husbandry was highly developed. The number of high-risk counties increased from 25 in 2004 to 54 in 2010.ESDA methods and the EB smoothing technique can assist public health officials in identifying high-risk areas. Allocating more resources to high-risk areas is an effective way to reduce human brucellosis incidence.

SUBMITTER: Zhang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3987733 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatial analysis on human brucellosis incidence in mainland China: 2004-2010.

Zhang Junhui J Yin Fei F Zhang Tao T Yang Chao C Zhang Xingyu X Feng Zijian Z Li Xiaosong X

BMJ open 20140408 4

<h4>Objectives</h4>China has experienced a sharply increasing rate of human brucellosis in recent years. Effective spatial monitoring of human brucellosis incidence is very important for successful implementation of control and prevention programmes. The purpose of this paper is to apply exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods and the empirical Bayes (EB) smoothing technique to monitor county-level incidence rates for human brucellosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2010 by examining sp ...[more]

PMID: 24713215

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Project description:BACKGROUND:This study aimed to describe the changing distribution of human brucellosis between 2004 and 2017 in mainland China and seek scientific evidence of the relationship between socio-economic, environmental, and ecological factors and human brucellosis incidence. METHODS:The annual numbers of brucellosis cases and incidence rates from 31 provinces in mainland China between 2004 and 2017 were obtained from the Data-Center for China Public Health Science. The number of monthly brucellosis cases in 2018 was obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The electronic map of the People's Republic of China was downloaded from the National Earth System Science Data Sharing Platform. Human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), and an inventory of cattle and sheep at the end of each year from 2004 to 2017 were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Annual rainfall data from 31 provinces in the People's Republic of China from 2004 to 2017 were collected from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. The risk distribution and changing trends of human brucellosis were mapped with ArcGIS. A cluster analysis was employed to identify geographical areas and periods with statistically significant incidence rates. Multivariate linear regression was used to determine possible factors that were significantly correlated with the presence of human brucellosis cases. RESULTS:Human brucellosis cases have spread throughout the whole country. Human brucellosis cases occurred mostly from March to August and were concentrated from April to July. The inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly correlated with the presence of brucellosis cases in mainland China. CONCLUSIONS:The geographical expansion of human brucellosis in mainland China was observed, so did the high-incidence clusters between 2004 and 2017. Most of the cases were reported during the early spring to early summer (February-August). Results from the multivariate linear regression suggested that the inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly associated with the incidence of human brucellosis in mainland China.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Despite the considerable efforts made to address the issue of brucellosis worldwide, its prevalence in dairy products continues to be difficult to estimate and represents a key public health issue around the world today. The aim of the present study was to better understand the epidemiology of this disease in mainland China. We set out to investigate the yearly spatial distribution and possible hotspots of the disease. METHODS:Human brucellosis data from mainland China between 2007 and 2016 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A geographic information system ArcGIS10.3 (ESRI, Redlands) was used to identify potential changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China during the study period. These distributions were evaluated using three-dimensional trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation analyse. A gravity-center was used to analyse the migration track of human brucellosis. RESULTS:A total of 399,578 cases of human brucellosis were reported during the 10-year study period. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in China demonstrates clear seasonality. Spring and summer are the peak seasons, while May is the peak month for brucellosis. Three-dimensional trend analysis suggests that brucellosis is on the rise from south to north, and that the epidemic situation in northern China is more severe. Between 2007 and 2016, the overall migration distance of the brucellosis incidence gravity-center was 906.43?km, and the direction was southwest. However, the overall gravity center of brucellosis was still in the northern part of China. In the global autocorrelation analysis, brucellosis in China demonstrated a non-random distribution between 2013 and 2014, with spatial autocorrelation (Z?>?1.96, P?<?0.05) and a clustering trend, while no clustering trend was found from 2007 to 2012 or from 2015 to 2016. In the local autocorrelation analysis, a Low-Low cluster phenomenon was found in the south of China in 2013 and 2014. CONCLUSION:Human brucellosis remains a widespread challenge, particularly in northern China. The hotspots highlight potential high-risk areas which may require special plans and resources for monitoring and controlling the disease.

Project description:BackgroundEstablishing epidemiological models and conducting predictions seems to be useful for the prevention and control of human brucellosis. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models can capture the long-term trends and the periodic variations in time series. However, these models cannot handle the nonlinear trends correctly. Recurrent neural networks can address problems that involve nonlinear time series data. In this study, we intended to build prediction models for human brucellosis in mainland China with Elman and Jordan neural networks. The fitting and forecasting accuracy of the neural networks were compared with a traditional seasonal ARIMA model.MethodsThe reported human brucellosis cases were obtained from the website of the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China. The human brucellosis cases from January 2004 to December 2017 were assembled as monthly counts. The training set observed from January 2004 to December 2016 was used to build the seasonal ARIMA model, Elman and Jordan neural networks. The test set from January 2017 to December 2017 was used to test the forecast results. The root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to assess the fitting and forecasting accuracy of the three models.ResultsThere were 52,868 cases of human brucellosis in Mainland China from January 2004 to December 2017. We observed a long-term upward trend and seasonal variance in the original time series. In the training set, the RMSE and MAE of Elman and Jordan neural networks were lower than those in the ARIMA model, whereas the MAPE of Elman and Jordan neural networks was slightly higher than that in the ARIMA model. In the test set, the RMSE, MAE and MAPE of Elman and Jordan neural networks were far lower than those in the ARIMA model.ConclusionsThe Elman and Jordan recurrent neural networks achieved much higher forecasting accuracy. These models are more suitable for forecasting nonlinear time series data, such as human brucellosis than the traditional ARIMA model.

Project description:BackgroundHuman brucellosis continues to be a great threat to human health in China. The present study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019, to analyze the socioeconomic factors, meteorological factors and seasonal effect affecting human brucellosis incidence in different geographical regions with the help of spatial panel model, and to provide a scientific basis for local health authorities to improve the prevention of human brucellosis.MethodsThe monthly reported number and incidence of human brucellosis in China from January 2004 to December 2019 were obtained from the Data Center for China Public Health Science. Monthly average air temperature and monthly average relative humidity of 31 provincial-level administrative units (22 provinces, 5 autonomous regions and 4 municipalities directly under the central government) in China from October 2003 to December 2019 were obtained from the National Meteorological Science Data Centre. The inventory of cattle, the inventory of sheep, beef yield, mutton yield, wool yield, milk yield and gross pastoral product of 31 provincial-level administrative units in China from 2004 to 2019 were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The temporal and geographical distribution of human brucellosis was displayed with Microsoft Excel and ArcMap software. The spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis was used to describe the association among different areas. Spatial panel model was constructed to explore the combined effects on the incidence of human brucellosis in China.ResultsA total of 569,016 cases of human brucellosis were reported in the 31 provincial-level administrative units in China from January 2004 to December 2019. Human brucellosis cases were concentrated between March and July, with a peak in May, showing a clear seasonal increase. The incidence of human brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019 showed significant spatial correlations, and hotspot analysis indicated that the high incidence of human brucellosis was mainly in the northern China, particularly in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Heilongjiang. The results from spatial panel model suggested that the inventory of cattle, the inventory of sheep, beef yield, mutton yield, wool yield, milk yield, gross pastoral product, average air temperature (the same month, 2-month lagged and 3-month lagged), average relative humidity (the same month) and season variability were significantly associated with human brucellosis incidence in China.ConclusionsThe epidemic area of human brucellosis in China has been expanding and the spatial clustering has been observed. Inner Mongolia and adjacent provinces or autonomous regions are the high-risk areas of human brucellosis. The inventory of cattle and sheep, beef yield, mutton yield, wool yield, milk yield, gross pastoral product, average air temperature, average relative humidity and season variability played a significant role in the progression of human brucellosis. The present study strengthens the understanding of the relationship between socioeconomic, meteorological factors and the spatial heterogeneity of human brucellosis in China, through which 'One Health'-based strategies and countermeasures can be provided for the government to tackle the brucellosis menace.

Dataset Information

Spatial analysis on human brucellosis incidence in mainland China: 2004-2010.

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Spatial analysis on human brucellosis incidence in mainland China: 2004-2010.

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