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Validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in kidney transplant recipients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Predicting cardiovascular risk is of great interest in renal transplant recipients since cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review to assess the validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in this population. METHODS: Five databases were searched (MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, CINAHL, and Web of Science) and cohort studies with at least one year of follow-up were included. Variables that described population characteristics, study design, and prognostic performance were extracted. The Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool was used to evaluate bias. RESULTS: Seven studies met the criteria for inclusion, of which, five investigated the Framingham risk score and three used a transplant-specific model. Sample sizes ranged from 344 to 23,575, and three studies lacked sufficient event rates to confidently reach conclusion. Four studies reported discrimination (as measured by c-statistic), which ranged from 0.701 to 0.75, while only one risk model was both internally and externally validated. CONCLUSION: The Framingham has underestimated cardiovascular events in renal transplant recipients, but these studies have not been robust. A risk prediction model has been externally validated at least on one occasion, but comprehensive validation in multiple cohorts and impact analysis are recommended before widespread clinical application is advocated.

SUBMITTER: Mansell H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3996891 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in kidney transplant recipients.

Mansell Holly H Stewart Samuel Alan SA Shoker Ahmed A

TheScientificWorldJournal 20140408

<h4>Background</h4>Predicting cardiovascular risk is of great interest in renal transplant recipients since cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality.<h4>Objective</h4>To conduct a systematic review to assess the validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in this population.<h4>Methods</h4>Five databases were searched (MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, CINAHL, and Web of Science) and cohort studies with at least one year of follow-up were included. Variables that described populatio ...[more]

PMID: 24977223

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Project description:Rationale & objectiveThe Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) is a simple widely validated prediction model using age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio to predict the risk for end-stage kidney disease. Data are limited for its applicability to kidney transplant recipients.Study designValidation study of the KFRE as a post hoc analysis of the Folic Acid for Vascular Outcomes Reduction in Transplantation (FAVORIT) Trial.Setting & participantsAdult kidney transplant recipients with functioning kidney allografts at least 6 months posttransplantation from 30 centers in the United States, Canada, and Brazil. Participants with estimated glomerular filtration rates < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at study entry were included.Predictor2- and 5-year kidney failure risk predicted by the KFRE using variables at study entry.OutcomeGraft loss, defined by initiation of dialysis.Analytical approachDiscrimination of the KFRE was assessed using C statistics; calibration was assessed by plotting predicted risk against observed cumulative incidence of graft loss.Results2,889 participants were included. Within 2 years, 98 participants developed graft loss, 107 participants died with a functioning graft, and 129 participants were lost to follow-up, and by 5 years, 252 had developed graft loss, 265 died with a functioning graft, and 1,543 were lost to follow-up. The KFRE demonstrated accurate calibration and discrimination (C statistic, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.81-0.88] at 2 years and 0.81 [95% CI, 0.78-0.84] at 5 years); performance was similar regardless of donor type (living vs deceased) and graft vintage, with the noted exception of poorer calibration for graft vintage less than 2 years.LimitationsUnavailable cause of graft loss.ConclusionsThe KFRE accurately predicted the risk for graft loss among adult kidney transplant recipients with graft vintage longer than 2 years and may be a useful prognostic tool for nephrologists caring for kidney transplant recipients.

Project description:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:In kidney transplant recipients, elevated circulating advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) are the result of increased formation and decreased kidney clearance. AGEs trigger several intracellular mechanisms that ultimately yield excess cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that, in stable kidney transplant recipients, circulating AGEs are associated with long-term risk of cardiovascular mortality, and that such a relationship is mediated by inflammatory, oxidative stress, and endothelial dysfunction biomarkers. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS:Prospective cohort study of stable kidney transplant recipients recruited between 2001 and 2003 in a university setting. We performed multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses to assess the association of AGEs (i.e., N? -[Carboxymethyl]lysine (CML) and N? -[Carboxyethyl]lysine (CEL), measured by tandem mass spectrometry) with cardiovascular mortality. Mediation analyses were performed according to Preacher and Hayes's procedure. RESULTS:We included 555 kidney transplant recipients (age 51±12 years, 56% men). During a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 122 kidney transplant recipients died (52% deaths were due to cardiovascular causes). CML and CEL concentrations were directly associated with cardiovascular mortality (respectively, hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.24 to 1.95; P<0.001; and hazard ratio, 1.53; 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.98; P=0.002), independent of age, diabetes, smoking status, body mass index, eGFR and proteinuria. Further adjustments, including cardiovascular history, did not materially change these findings. In mediation analyses, free thiol groups and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 consistently explained approximately 35% of the association of CML and CEL with cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS:In stable kidney transplant recipients, circulating levels of AGEs are independently associated with long-term risk of cardiovascular mortality. PODCAST:This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2019_09_17_CJN00540119.mp3.

Project description:BackgroundPredicting allograft failure in kidney transplant recipients can help plan renal replacement therapy and guide patient-provider communication. The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) accurately predicts the need for dialysis in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but has not been validated in kidney transplant recipients.ObjectiveWe sought to validate the 4-variable KFRE (age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ACR]) for prediction of 2- and 5-year death-censored allograft failure.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingFour independent North American Cohorts from Ontario, Canada; Alberta, Canada; Manitoba, Canada; and Wisconsin, United States, between January 1999 and December 2017.PatientsAdult kidney transplant patients at 1-year posttransplantation.MeasurementsKidney failure risk as measured by the KFRE (eGFR, urine ACR, age, and sex).MethodsWe included all adult patients who had at least 1 serum creatinine and at least 1 urine ACR measurement approximately 1 year following kidney transplantation. The performance of the KFRE was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (C-statistic). C-statistics from the 4 cohorts were meta-analyzed using random-effects models.ResultsA total of 3659 patients were included. Pooled C-statistics were good in the entire population, at 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.91) for the 2-year KFRE and 0.73 (0.67-0.80) for the 5-year KFRE. Discrimination improved among patients with poorer kidney function (eGFR < 45 mL/min/1.73 m2), with a C-statistic of 0.88 (0.78-0.98) for the 2-year KFRE and 0.83 (0.74-0.91) for the 5-year KFRE.LimitationsThe KFRE does not predict episodes of acute rejection and there was heterogeneity between cohorts.ConclusionsThe KFRE accurately predicts kidney failure in kidney transplant recipients at 1-year posttransplantation. Further validation in larger cohorts with longer follow-up times can strengthen the case for clinical implementation.

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Validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in kidney transplant recipients.

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Validity of cardiovascular risk prediction models in kidney transplant recipients.

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