Dataset Information

Modeling the impact of quadrivalent HPV vaccination on the incidence of Pap test abnormalities in the United States.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:We present data on Pap test results and HPV prevalence from the HPV Sentinel Surveillance project, a multiyear surveillance project enrolling women from a diverse set of 26 clinics throughout the US from 2003 to 2005. We use mathematical modeling to illustrate the potential timing and magnitude of decreases in Pap test abnormalities in sexually transmitted disease (STD), family planning, and primary care clinics in the US as a result of HPV vaccination. METHODS:The probability of an abnormal Pap result was based on three factors: (1) infection with HPV 16/18, or both; (2) infection with high-risk HPV types other than HPV 16/18; and (3) infection with HPV 6/11, or both. We estimated the relative reduction in the probability of an abnormal Pap result over the first 25 years of a female-only, quadrivalent HPV vaccination program, compared to a scenario of no HPV vaccination in which the probability of abnormal Pap results was assumed constant. RESULTS:The probability of an abnormal Pap result ranged from 7.0% for the lowest risk group (those without any high-risk HPV types and without HPV 6/11) to 45.2% for the highest risk group (those with HPV 16/18 and at least one other high-risk HPV type). Estimated reductions in abnormal Pap results among women in the 21- to 29-year age group were 0.8%, 10.2%, and 11.3% in years 5, 15, and 25 of the vaccine program respectively, in the lower vaccine coverage scenario, and 7.4%, 21.4%, and 22.2%, respectively, in the higher coverage scenario. CONCLUSIONS:Our results suggest that HPV vaccination will have a discernable impact on the probability of Pap abnormalities, but the timing and magnitude of the reduction will depend substantially on vaccine coverage and the degree of cross-protection against high risk HPV types other than HPV 16/18.

SUBMITTER: Chesson HW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3998647 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling the impact of quadrivalent HPV vaccination on the incidence of Pap test abnormalities in the United States.

Chesson Harrell W HW Flagg Elaine W EW Koutsky Laura L Hsu Katherine K Unger Elizabeth R ER Shlay Judith C JC Kerndt Peter P Ghanem Khalil G KG Zenilman Jonathan M JM Hagensee Michael M Weinstock Hillard H Datta S Deblina SD

Vaccine 20130510 29

<h4>Background</h4>We present data on Pap test results and HPV prevalence from the HPV Sentinel Surveillance project, a multiyear surveillance project enrolling women from a diverse set of 26 clinics throughout the US from 2003 to 2005. We use mathematical modeling to illustrate the potential timing and magnitude of decreases in Pap test abnormalities in sexually transmitted disease (STD), family planning, and primary care clinics in the US as a result of HPV vaccination.<h4>Methods</h4>The prob ...[more]

PMID: 23664991

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Project description:The cost-effectiveness of prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus types 16 (HPV-16) and 18 (HPV-18) is an important consideration for guidelines for immunization in the United States.We synthesized epidemiologic and demographic data using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to compare the health and economic outcomes of vaccinating preadolescent girls (at 12 years of age) and vaccinating older girls and women in catch-up programs (to 18, 21, or 26 years of age). We examined the health benefits of averting other HPV-16-related and HPV-18-related cancers, the prevention of HPV-6-related and HPV-11-related genital warts and juvenile-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis by means of the quadrivalent vaccine, the duration of immunity, and future screening practices.On the assumption that the vaccine provided lifelong immunity, the cost-effectiveness ratio of vaccination of 12-year-old girls was $43,600 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, as compared with the current screening practice. Under baseline assumptions, the cost-effectiveness ratio for extending a temporary catch-up program for girls to 18 years of age was $97,300 per QALY; the cost of extending vaccination of girls and women to the age of 21 years was $120,400 per QALY, and the cost for extension to the age of 26 years was $152,700 per QALY. The results were sensitive to the duration of vaccine-induced immunity; if immunity waned after 10 years, the cost of vaccination of preadolescent girls exceeded $140,000 per QALY, and catch-up strategies were less cost-effective than screening alone. The cost-effectiveness ratios for vaccination strategies were more favorable if the benefits of averting other health conditions were included or if screening was delayed and performed at less frequent intervals and with more sensitive tests; they were less favorable if vaccinated girls were preferentially screened more frequently in adulthood.The cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination will depend on the duration of vaccine immunity and will be optimized by achieving high coverage in preadolescent girls, targeting initial catch-up efforts to women up to 18 or 21 years of age, and revising screening policies.

Project description:ImportanceIn 2005, the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended routine quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate (MenACWY) vaccine for all adolescents aged 11 to 12 years, and in 2010, a booster dose for adolescents aged 16 years. Measuring the association between MenACWY vaccination and the incidence of meningococcal disease in adolescents is critical for evaluating the adolescent vaccination program and informing future vaccine policy.ObjectiveTo describe the association between MenACWY vaccination and the incidence of meningococcal disease in US adolescents.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cohort study, analysis of surveillance data included all confirmed and probable cases of Neisseria meningitidis reported to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2017. Statistical analysis was conducted from October 1, 2018, to August 31, 2019.ExposuresRoutine MenACWY vaccination among US adolescents.Main outcomes and measuresPoisson segmented regression analysis was used to model the annual incidence of meningococcal disease among adolescents aged 11 to 15 years and 16 to 22 years before the introduction of the MenACWY vaccine (2000-2005), after the primary dose recommendation (2006-2010), and after the booster dose recommendation (2011-2017); 95% CIs were used to determine significant differences between time periods.ResultsThe national incidence of meningococcal disease declined from 0.61 cases per 100 000 population during the prevaccine period (2000-2005) to 0.15 cases per 100 000 population during the post-booster dose period (2011-2017). The greatest percentage decline was observed for serogroup C, W, and Y combined (CWY) among adolescents aged 11 to 15 years and 16 to 22 years in the periods after vaccine introduction. Incidence of serogroup CWY meningococcal disease among adolescents aged 11 to 15 years decreased by 16.3% (95% CI, 12.1%-20.3%) annually during the prevaccine period and 27.8% (95% CI, 20.6%-34.4%) during the post-primary dose period (P = .02); among adolescents aged 16 to 22 years, the incidence decreased by 10.6% (95% CI, 6.8%-14.3%) annually in the post-primary dose period and 35.6% (95% CI, 29.3%-41.0%) annually in the post-booster dose period (P < .001). An estimated 222 cases of meningococcal disease due to serogroup CWY among adolescents were averted through vaccination during the evaluation period.Conclusions and relevanceAfter introduction of a primary and booster MenACWY dose, the rates of decline in incidence of meningococcal disease due to serogroup C, W, or Y accelerated nearly 2-fold to 3-fold in vaccinated adolescent age groups. Although the MenACWY vaccine alone cannot explain the decline of meningococcal disease in the United States, these data suggest that MenACWY vaccination is associated with reduced disease rates in adolescents.

Project description:This study is the first to examine associations between several area-based socioeconomic factors and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake among boys in the United States (U.S.).Data from the 2012-2013 National Immunization Survey-Teen restricted-use data were analyzed to examine associations of HPV vaccination initiation (receipt of ?1 dose) and series completion (receipt of three doses) among boys aged 13-17 years (N = 19,518) with several individual-level and ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) census measures. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of HPV vaccination initiation and series completion separately.In 2012-2013 approximately 27.9% (95% CI 26.6%-29.2%) of boys initiated and 10.38% (95% CI 9.48%-11.29%) completed the HPV vaccine series. Area-based poverty was not statistically significantly associated with HPV vaccination initiation. It was, however, associated with series completion, with boys living in high-poverty areas (?20% of residents living below poverty) having higher odds of completing the series (AOR 1.22, 95% CI 1.01-1.48) than boys in low-poverty areas (0-4.99%). Interactions between race/ethnicity and ZIP code-level poverty indicated that Hispanic boys living in high-poverty areas had a statistically significantly higher odds of HPV vaccine initiation (AOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.03-1.97) and series completion (AOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.05-2.32) than Hispanic boys in low-poverty areas. Non-Hispanic Black boys in high poverty areas had higher odds of initiation (AOR 2.23, 95% CI 1.33-3.75) and completion (AOR 2.61, 95% CI 1.06-6.44) than non-Hispanic Black boys in low-poverty areas. Rural/urban residence and population density were also significant factors, with boys from urban or densely populated areas having higher odds of initiation and completion compared to boys living in non-urban, less densely populated areas.Higher HPV vaccination coverage in urban areas and among racial/ethnic minorities in areas with high poverty may be attributable to factors such as vaccine acceptance, health-care practices, and their access to HPV vaccines through the Vaccines for Children Program, which provides free vaccines to uninsured and under-insured children. Given the low HPV vaccination rates among boys in the U.S., these results provide important evidence to inform public health interventions to increase HPV vaccination.

Dataset Information

Modeling the impact of quadrivalent HPV vaccination on the incidence of Pap test abnormalities in the United States.

Publications

Modeling the impact of quadrivalent HPV vaccination on the incidence of Pap test abnormalities in the United States.

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