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Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states.

ABSTRACT: An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We examine political disintegration across eras, cultures and geographical scale to form a simple hypothesis that can be expressed verbally yet formulated mathematically. Factions within a state make choices described by game-theory about whether to accept the political status quo, or to attempt to better their circumstances through costly rebellion. In lieu of precise data we verify our model using sensitivity analysis. We find that a small amount of dissatisfaction is typically harmless to the state, but can trigger sudden collapse when there is a sufficient buildup of political inequality. Contrary to intuition, a state is predicted to be least stable when its leadership is at the height of its political power and thus most able to exert its influence through external warfare, lavish expense or autocratic decree.

SUBMITTER: Lawson DJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4014536 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states.

Lawson Daniel John DJ Oak Neeraj N

PloS one 20140508 5

An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We examine political disintegration across eras, cultures and geographical scale to form a simple hypothesis that can be expressed verbally yet formulated mathematically. Factions within a state make choices described by game-theory about whether to accept the political status quo, or to attempt to better their circum ...[more]

PMID: 24810228

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Project description:BackgroundA comprehensive understanding of how anesthetics facilitate a reversible collapse of system-wide neuronal function requires measurement of neuronal activity with single-cell resolution. Multineuron recording was performed in Caenorhabditis elegans to measure neuronal activity at varying depths of anesthesia. The authors hypothesized that anesthesia is characterized by dyssynchrony between neurons resulting in a collapse of organized system states.MethodsUsing light-sheet microscopy and transgenic expression of the calcium-sensitive fluorophore GCaMP6s, a majority of neurons (n = 120) in the C. elegans head were simultaneously imaged in vivo and neuronal activity was measured. Neural activity and system-wide dynamics were compared in 10 animals, progressively dosed at 0%, 4%, and 8% isoflurane. System-wide neuronal activity was analyzed using principal component analysis.ResultsUnanesthetized animals display distinct global neuronal states that are reflected in a high degree of correlation (R = 0.196 ± 0.070) between neurons and low-frequency, large-amplitude neuronal dynamics. At 4% isoflurane, the average correlation between neurons is significantly diminished (R = 0.026 ± 0.010; P < 0.0001 vs. unanesthetized) and neuron dynamics shift toward higher frequencies but with smaller dynamic range. At 8% isoflurane, interneuronal correlations indicate that neuronal activity remains uncoordinated (R = 0.053 ± 0.029; P < 0.0001 vs. unanesthetized) with high-frequency dynamics that are even further restricted. Principal component analysis of unanesthetized neuronal activity reveals distinct structure corresponding to known behavioral states. At 4% and 8% isoflurane this structure is lost and replaced with randomized dynamics, as quantified by the percentage of total ensemble variance captured by the first three principal components. In unanesthetized worms, this captured variance is high (88.9 ± 5.4%), reflecting a highly organized system, falling significantly at 4% and 8% isoflurane (57.9 ± 11.2%, P < 0.0001 vs. unanesthetized, and 76.0 ± 7.9%, P < 0.001 vs. unanesthetized, respectively) and corresponding to increased randomization and collapse of system-wide organization.ConclusionsAnesthesia with isoflurane in C. elegans corresponds to high-frequency randomization of individual neuron activity, loss of coordination between neurons, and a collapse of system-wide functional organization.

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Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states.

Publications

Apparent strength conceals instability in a model for the collapse of historical states.

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