Dataset Information

Nine scoring models for short-term mortality in alcoholic hepatitis: cross-validation in a biopsy-proven cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Several prognostic models have emerged in alcoholic hepatitis (AH), but lack of external validation precludes their universal use.

Aim

To validate the Maddrey Discriminant Function (DF); Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS); Mayo End-stage Liver Disease (MELD); Age, Bilirubin, INR, Creatinine (ABIC); MELD-Na, UK End-stage Liver Disease (UKELD), and three scores of corticosteroid response at 1 week: an Early Change in Bilirubin Levels (ECBL), a 25% fall in bilirubin, and the Lille score.

Methods

Seventy-one consecutive patients with biopsy-proven AH, admitted between November 2007-September 2011, were evaluated. The clinical and biochemical parameters were analysed to assess prognostic models with respect to 30- and 90-day mortality.

Results

There were no significant differences in the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCs) relative to 30-day/90-day mortality: MELD 0.79/0.84, DF 0.71/0.74, GAHS 0.75/0.78, ABIC 0.71/0.78, MELD-Na 0.68/0.76, UKELD 0.56/0.68. One-week rescoring yielded a trend towards improved predictive accuracies (30-day/90-day AUROCs: 0.69–0.84/0.77–0.86). In patients with admission DF ? 32 (n = 31), response to corticosteroids according to ECBL, 25% fall in bilirubin and the Lille model yielded AUROCs of 0.73/0.73, 0.78/0.72 and 0.81/0.82 for a 30-day/90-day outcome respectively. All models showed excellent negative predictive values (NPVs; range: 86–100%), while the positive ones were low (range: 17–50%).

Conclusions

MELD, DF, GAHS, ABIC and scores of corticosteroid response proved to be valid in an independent cohort of biopsy-proven alcoholic hepatitis. MELD modifications incorporating sodium did not confer any prognostic advantage over classical MELD. Based on excellent NPVs, the models are best to identify patients at low risk of death.

SUBMITTER: Papastergiou V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4015369 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nine scoring models for short-term mortality in alcoholic hepatitis: cross-validation in a biopsy-proven cohort.

Papastergiou V V Tsochatzis E A EA Pieri G G Thalassinos E E Dhar A A Bruno S S Karatapanis S S Luong T V TV O'Beirne J J Patch D D Thorburn D D Burroughs A K AK

Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics 20140401 7

<h4>Background</h4>Several prognostic models have emerged in alcoholic hepatitis (AH), but lack of external validation precludes their universal use.<h4>Aim</h4>To validate the Maddrey Discriminant Function (DF); Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS); Mayo End-stage Liver Disease (MELD); Age, Bilirubin, INR, Creatinine (ABIC); MELD-Na, UK End-stage Liver Disease (UKELD), and three scores of corticosteroid response at 1 week: an Early Change in Bilirubin Levels (ECBL), a 25% fall in bilirubin, ...[more]

PMID: 24612165

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Project description:ObjectiveSeveral single-nucleotide polymorphisms have been identified to be disadvantageous or protective in regard to disease severity in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, it is unclear, whether including genetic risk factor(s) either alone or combined into risk stratification algorithms for NAFLD actually provides incremental benefit over clinical risk factors.DesignPatients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were genotyped for the PNPLA3-rs738409(minor allele:G), TM6SF2-rs58542926(minor allele:T) and HSD17B13- rs72613567 (minor allele:TA) variants. The NAFLD activity score (NAS) and fibrosis stage (F0-F4) were used to grade and stage all liver biopsy samples. Patients from seven centers throughout Central Europe were considered for the study.Results703 patients were included: NAS ≥ 5:173(24.6%); Fibrosis: F3-4:81(11.5%). PNPLA3 G/G genotype was associated with a NAS ≥ 5(aOR 2.23, p = 0.007) and advanced fibrosis (aOR-3.48, p < 0.001).TM6SF2 T/- was associated with advanced fibrosis (aOR 1.99, p = 0.023). HSD17B13 TA/- was associated with a lower probability of NAS ≥ 5(TA/T: aOR 0.65, p = 0.041, TA/TA: aOR 0.40, p = 0.033). Regarding the predictive capability for NAS ≥ 5, well-known risk factors (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, and ALT; baseline model) had an AUC of 0.758, Addition of PNPLA3(AUC 0.766), HSB17B13(AUC 0.766), and their combination(AUC 0.775), but not of TM6SF2(AUC 0.762), resulted in a higher diagnostic accuracy of the model. Addition of genetic markers for the prediction of advanced fibrosis (baseline model: age, sex, BMI, diabetes: AUC 0.777) resulted in a higher AUC if PNPLA3(AUC 0.789), and TM6SF2(AUC 0.786) but not if HSD17B13(0.777) were added.ConclusionIn biopsy-proven NAFLD, PNPLA3 G/-, TM6SF2 T/- and HSD17B13 TA/- carriage are associated with severity of NAFLD. Incorporating these genetic risk factors into risk stratification models might improve their predictive accuracy for severity of NAFLD and/or advanced fibrosis on liver biopsy.

Dataset Information

Nine scoring models for short-term mortality in alcoholic hepatitis: cross-validation in a biopsy-proven cohort.

Background

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Nine scoring models for short-term mortality in alcoholic hepatitis: cross-validation in a biopsy-proven cohort.

Similar Datasets

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