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New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model.

ABSTRACT: There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998) for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer and Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer et al., 2010) is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches) and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task.

SUBMITTER: Singmann H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4029011 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model.

Singmann Henrik H Klauer Karl Christoph KC Over David D

Frontiers in psychology 20140417

There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that f ...[more]

PMID: 24860516

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Project description:Demographic factors impact neuropsychological test performances and accounting for them may help to better elucidate current brain functioning. The NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery (NIHTB-CB) is a novel neuropsychological tool, yet the original norms developed for the battery did not adequately account for important demographic/cultural factors known to impact test performances. We developed norms fully adjusting for all demographic variables within each language group (English and Spanish) separately. The current study describes the standards for individuals tested in English. Neurologically healthy adults (n=1038) and children (n=2917) who completed the NIH Toolbox norming project in English were included. We created uncorrected scores weighted to the 2010 Census demographics, and applied polynomial regression models to develop age-corrected and fully demographically adjusted (age, education, sex, race/ethnicity) scores for each NIHTB-CB test and composite (i.e., Fluid, Crystallized, and Total Composites). On uncorrected NIHTB-CB scores, age and education demonstrated significant, medium-to-large associations, while sex showed smaller, but statistically significant effects. In terms of race/ethnicity, a significant stair-step effect on uncorrected NIHTB-CB scores was observed (African American<Hispanic<White). After applying normative corrections, NIHTB-CB no longer demonstrated any significant associations with demographic factors. The previously developed norms still maintained significant associations with demographic factors, and demonstrated more variable impairment rates in segments of the healthy normative sample. Similar to other neuropsychological tests, demographic factors demonstrated significant associations with unadjusted NIHTB-CB scores. Application of fully corrected scores will help account for unwanted variance that is associated with non-clinical factors to more accurately reflect effects of disease-related changes in brain function.

Project description:Hispanics are the fastest growing ethnicity in the United States, yet there are limited well-validated neuropsychological tools in Spanish, and an even greater paucity of normative standards representing this population. The Spanish NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery (NIHTB-CB) is a novel neurocognitive screener; however, the original norms were developed combining Spanish- and English-versions of the battery. We developed normative standards for the Spanish NIHTB-CB, fully adjusting for demographic variables and based entirely on a Spanish-speaking sample. A total of 408 Spanish-speaking neurologically healthy adults (ages 18-85 years) and 496 children (ages 3-7 years) completed the NIH Toolbox norming project. We developed three types of scores: uncorrected based on the entire Spanish-speaking cohort, age-corrected, and fully demographically corrected (age, education, sex) scores for each of the seven NIHTB-CB tests and three composites (Fluid, Crystallized, Total Composites). Corrected scores were developed using polynomial regression models. Demographic factors demonstrated medium-to-large effects on uncorrected NIHTB-CB scores in a pattern that differed from that observed on the English NIHTB-CB. For example, in Spanish-speaking adults, education was more strongly associated with Fluid scores, but showed the strongest association with Crystallized scores among English-speaking adults. Demographic factors were no longer associated with fully corrected scores. The original norms were not successful in eliminating demographic effects, overestimating children's performances, and underestimating adults' performances on the Spanish NIHTB-CB. The disparate pattern of demographic associations on the Spanish versus English NIHTB-CB supports the need for distinct normative standards developed separately for each population. Fully adjusted scores presented here will aid in more accurately characterizing acquired brain dysfunction among U.S. Spanish-speakers.

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New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model.

Publications

New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model.

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