Dataset Information

Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To develop and validate 10-year cumulative incidence functions of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and ischemic stroke (IS).

Methods

We used data on 27,493 participants from 3 population-based cohort studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, median age 54 years, 45% male, median follow-up 20.7 years; the Rotterdam Study, median age 68 years, 38% male, median follow-up 14.3 years; and the Cardiovascular Health Study, median age 71 years, 41% male, median follow-up 12.8 years. Among these participants, 325 ICH events, 2,559 IS events, and 9,909 nonstroke deaths occurred. We developed 10-year cumulative incidence functions for ICH and IS using stratified Cox regression and competing risks analysis. Basic models including only established nonlaboratory risk factors were extended with diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and glomerular filtration rate. The cumulative incidence functions' performances were cross-validated in each cohort separately by Harrell C-statistic and calibration plots.

Results

High total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio decreased the ICH rates but increased IS rates (p for difference across stroke types <0.001). For both the ICH and IS models, C statistics increased more by model extension in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Cardiovascular Health Study cohorts. Improvements in C statistics were reproduced by cross-validation. Models were well calibrated in all cohorts. Correlations between 10-year ICH and IS risks were moderate in each cohort.

Conclusions

We developed and cross-validated cumulative incidence functions for separate prediction of 10-year ICH and IS risk. These functions can be useful to further specify an individual's stroke risk.

SUBMITTER: Ferket BS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4035707 | biostudies-literature | 2014 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke.

Ferket Bart S BS van Kempen Bob J H BJ Wieberdink Renske G RG Steyerberg Ewout W EW Koudstaal Peter J PJ Hofman Albert A Shahar Eyal E Gottesman Rebecca F RF Rosamond Wayne W Kizer Jorge R JR Kronmal Richard A RA Psaty Bruce M BM Longstreth W T WT Mosley Thomas T Folsom Aaron R AR Hunink M G Myriam MG Ikram M Arfan MA

Neurology 20140423 20

<h4>Objectives</h4>To develop and validate 10-year cumulative incidence functions of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and ischemic stroke (IS).<h4>Methods</h4>We used data on 27,493 participants from 3 population-based cohort studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, median age 54 years, 45% male, median follow-up 20.7 years; the Rotterdam Study, median age 68 years, 38% male, median follow-up 14.3 years; and the Cardiovascular Health Study, median age 71 years, 41% male, median foll ...[more]

PMID: 24759844

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Project description:Background Data on the relative contribution of clinical and neuroimaging risk factors to acute ischemic stroke (AIS) versus intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) occurring on oral anticoagulant treatment are scarce. Methods and Results Cross-sectional study was done on consecutive oral anticoagulant-treated patients presenting with AIS, transient ischemic attack (TIA), or ICH from the prospective observational NOACISP (Novel-Oral-Anticoagulants-In-Stroke-Patients)-Acute registry. We compared clinical and neuroimaging characteristics (small vessel disease markers and atherosclerosis) in ICH versus AIS/TIA (reference) using logistic regression. Among 734 patients presenting with stroke on oral anticoagulant treatment (404 [55%] direct oral anticoagulants, 330 [45%] vitamin K antagonists), 605 patients (82%) had AIS/TIA and 129 (18%) had ICH. Prior AIS/TIA, coronary artery disease, dyslipidemia, and worse renal function were associated with AIS/TIA (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] [95% CI] 0.51 [0.32-0.82], 0.48 [0.26-0.86], 0.55 [0.34-0.89], and 0.82 [0.75-0.90] per 10 mL/min). Prior ICH, older age, higher admission blood pressure, and statin treatment were associated with ICH (aOR [95% CI] 6.33 [2.87-14.04], 1.37 [1.04-1.81] per 10 years, 1.19 [1.10-1.29] per 10 mm Hg, and 1.81 [1.09-3.03]). Cerebral microbleeds and moderate-to-severe white matter hyperintensities contributed more to ICH (aOR [95% CI] 2.77 [1.34-6.18], and 2.62 [1.28-5.63]). Aortic arch, common and internal carotid artery atherosclerosis, and internal carotid artery stenosis ≥50% contributed more to AIS/TIA (aOR [95% CI] 0.54 [0.31-0.90], 0.29 [0.05-0.97], 0.48 [0.30-0.76], and 0.32 [0.13-0.67]). Conclusions In patients presenting with stroke on oral anticoagulant, AIS/TIA was 5 times more common than ICH. A high atherosclerotic burden (indicated by cardiovascular comorbidities and extracranial atherosclerosis) and prior AIS/TIA contributed more to AIS/TIA, while small vessel disease markers and prior ICH were stronger determinants for ICH. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02353585.

Project description:BackgroundIntracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. Whether there are racial and ethnic disparities in the risk of ischemic stroke after ICH is poorly understood. We therefore aimed to test the hypothesis that non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic ICH patients have a higher risk of ischemic stroke compared with non-Hispanic White ICH patients.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) on all hospitalizations at all nonfederal hospitals in Florida from 2005 to 2018 and New York from 2006 to 2016. Race and ethnicity were coded as a single variable in HCUP. We included patients with an ICH, and without a prior or concomitant diagnosis of ischemic stroke, ascertained using validated International Classification of Diseases-Clinical Modification-9 and 10 diagnosis codes. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we studied the relationship between race and risk of ischemic stroke starting from the time of discharge from ICH hospitalization, after adjustment of demographics and vascular comorbidities.ResultsWe included 91 342 patients with ICH-62% non-Hispanic White, 18% non-Hispanic Black, and 12% Hispanic patients. Non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients were younger and had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular comorbidities; however, atrial fibrillation was more prevalent among non-Hispanic White patients. During a median follow-up period of 4.4 years (interquartile range, 1.5-8.1), an incident ischemic stroke occurred in 3377 (6%) non-Hispanic White, 1323 (8%) non-Hispanic Black, and 844 (8%) Hispanic patients. In adjusted Cox models, the risk of an ischemic stroke was significantly higher among non-Hispanic Black patients (hazard ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.5-1.8]) and Hispanic patients (hazard ratio, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.3-1.5]), compared with non-Hispanic White patients. Similar results were obtained in sensitivity analyses when using death as a competing risk and after excluding patients with atrial fibrillation and valvular heart disease.ConclusionsIn a large heterogeneous cohort of patients with ICH, we found that non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients had a significantly higher risk of ischemic stroke compared with non-Hispanic White patients.

Project description:Background and Purpose- Patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are at risk for ischemic events. While risk calculators (CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED) have been validated to assess risk for ischemic stroke and major bleeding in AF patients, decisions about anticoagulation must consider the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation. Furthermore, stroke and bleeding risk are highly correlated, making decisions more difficult. Methods- We examined patients in the GERFHS III study (Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Hemorrhagic Stroke)-a population-based retrospective study of spontaneous ICH patients without a structural or traumatic cause in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region between July 2008 and December 2012. CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-B(L)ED (minus L because labile international normalized ratio was unavailable) scores were calculated for ICH patients with AF. Using a Markov state transition model, we estimated net clinical benefit of anticoagulation relative to no treatment in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We defined minimal clinically relevant benefit as 0.1 QALYs. Results- Among 1186 cases of spontaneous ICH, 95 cases had AF and met our survival criteria. Within 1 year, 8 of 95 (8%) would be expected to have a major bleeding event on anticoagulation, and 5 of 95 (5%) of patients would be expected to have an ischemic stroke off anticoagulation. Sixty-eight of 95 (71%) patients would have higher risk for major bleeding than for ischemic stroke. Anticoagulation with directly acting anticoagulants would result in no clinically significant gain or loss in 73%. Roughly 12% would gain >0.1 QALYs, and 15% would lose >0.1 QALYs. Among patients receiving aspirin, most have no significant net clinical benefit or loss. Overall, anticoagulation of the entire cohort would result in an aggregate loss of 0.92 QALYs. Conclusions- Our analysis suggests that universal anticoagulation after ICH would be associated with a net loss of QALY. Additional factors should be considered before anticoagulating patients with AF after ICH. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00930280.

Project description:Given that substantial genetic components have been shown in ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), heritability may be higher in early-onset than late-onset individuals with these conditions. Although genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified various genes and loci significantly associated with ischemic stroke, ICH, or intracranial aneurysm mainly in European ancestry populations, genetic variants that contribute to susceptibility to these disorders remain to be identified definitively. We performed exome-wide association studies (EWASs) to identify genetic variants that confer susceptibility to ischemic stroke, ICH, or SAH in early-onset subjects with these conditions. A total of 6,649 individuals aged ≤65 years were examined. For the EWAS of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, 6,224 individuals (450 subjects with ischemic stroke, 5,774 controls) or 6,179 individuals (261 subjects with ICH, 176 subjects with SAH, 5,742 controls), respectively, were examined. EWASs were performed with the use of Illumina Human Exome-12 v1.2 DNA Analysis BeadChip or Infinium Exome-24 v1.0 BeadChip. To compensate for multiple comparisons of allele frequencies with ischemic stroke, ICH, or SAH, we applied a false discovery rate (FDR) of <0.05 for statistical significance of association. The association of allele frequencies of 31,245 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that passed quality control to ischemic stroke was examined with Fisher's exact test, and 31 SNPs were significantly (FDR <0.05) associated with ischemic stroke. The association of allele frequencies of 31,253 or 30,970 SNPs to ICH or SAH, respectively, was examined with Fisher's exact test, and six or two SNPs were significantly associated with ICH or SAH, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis with adjustment for age, sex, and the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes mellitus revealed that 12 SNPs were significantly [P<0.0004 (0.05/124)] related to ischemic stroke. Similar analysis with adjustment for age, sex, and the prevalence of hypertension revealed that six or two SNPs were significantly [P<0.0016 (0.05/32)] related to ICH or SAH, respectively. After examination of linkage disequilibrium of identified SNPs and results of previous GWASs, we identified HHIPL2, CTNNA3, LOC643770, UTP20, and TRIB3 as susceptibility loci for ischemic stroke, DNTTIP2 and FAM205A as susceptibility loci for ICH, and FAM160A1 and OR52E4 as such loci for SAH. Therefore, to the best of our knowledge, we have newly identified nine genes that confer susceptibility to early-onset ischemic stroke, ICH, or SAH. Determination of genotypes for the SNPs in these genes may prove informative for assessment of the genetic risk for ischemic stroke, ICH, or SAH in Japanese.

Dataset Information

Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke.

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