Dataset Information

Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To develop and validate 10-year cumulative incidence functions of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and ischemic stroke (IS).

Methods

We used data on 27,493 participants from 3 population-based cohort studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, median age 54 years, 45% male, median follow-up 20.7 years; the Rotterdam Study, median age 68 years, 38% male, median follow-up 14.3 years; and the Cardiovascular Health Study, median age 71 years, 41% male, median follow-up 12.8 years. Among these participants, 325 ICH events, 2,559 IS events, and 9,909 nonstroke deaths occurred. We developed 10-year cumulative incidence functions for ICH and IS using stratified Cox regression and competing risks analysis. Basic models including only established nonlaboratory risk factors were extended with diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and glomerular filtration rate. The cumulative incidence functions' performances were cross-validated in each cohort separately by Harrell C-statistic and calibration plots.

Results

High total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio decreased the ICH rates but increased IS rates (p for difference across stroke types <0.001). For both the ICH and IS models, C statistics increased more by model extension in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Cardiovascular Health Study cohorts. Improvements in C statistics were reproduced by cross-validation. Models were well calibrated in all cohorts. Correlations between 10-year ICH and IS risks were moderate in each cohort.

Conclusions

We developed and cross-validated cumulative incidence functions for separate prediction of 10-year ICH and IS risk. These functions can be useful to further specify an individual's stroke risk.

SUBMITTER: Ferket BS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4035707 | biostudies-literature | 2014 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke.

Ferket Bart S BS van Kempen Bob J H BJ Wieberdink Renske G RG Steyerberg Ewout W EW Koudstaal Peter J PJ Hofman Albert A Shahar Eyal E Gottesman Rebecca F RF Rosamond Wayne W Kizer Jorge R JR Kronmal Richard A RA Psaty Bruce M BM Longstreth W T WT Mosley Thomas T Folsom Aaron R AR Hunink M G Myriam MG Ikram M Arfan MA

Neurology 20140423 20

<h4>Objectives</h4>To develop and validate 10-year cumulative incidence functions of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and ischemic stroke (IS).<h4>Methods</h4>We used data on 27,493 participants from 3 population-based cohort studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, median age 54 years, 45% male, median follow-up 20.7 years; the Rotterdam Study, median age 68 years, 38% male, median follow-up 14.3 years; and the Cardiovascular Health Study, median age 71 years, 41% male, median foll ...[more]

PMID: 24759844

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Project description:Background and Purpose- Patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are at risk for ischemic events. While risk calculators (CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED) have been validated to assess risk for ischemic stroke and major bleeding in AF patients, decisions about anticoagulation must consider the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation. Furthermore, stroke and bleeding risk are highly correlated, making decisions more difficult. Methods- We examined patients in the GERFHS III study (Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors for Hemorrhagic Stroke)-a population-based retrospective study of spontaneous ICH patients without a structural or traumatic cause in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region between July 2008 and December 2012. CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-B(L)ED (minus L because labile international normalized ratio was unavailable) scores were calculated for ICH patients with AF. Using a Markov state transition model, we estimated net clinical benefit of anticoagulation relative to no treatment in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We defined minimal clinically relevant benefit as 0.1 QALYs. Results- Among 1186 cases of spontaneous ICH, 95 cases had AF and met our survival criteria. Within 1 year, 8 of 95 (8%) would be expected to have a major bleeding event on anticoagulation, and 5 of 95 (5%) of patients would be expected to have an ischemic stroke off anticoagulation. Sixty-eight of 95 (71%) patients would have higher risk for major bleeding than for ischemic stroke. Anticoagulation with directly acting anticoagulants would result in no clinically significant gain or loss in 73%. Roughly 12% would gain >0.1 QALYs, and 15% would lose >0.1 QALYs. Among patients receiving aspirin, most have no significant net clinical benefit or loss. Overall, anticoagulation of the entire cohort would result in an aggregate loss of 0.92 QALYs. Conclusions- Our analysis suggests that universal anticoagulation after ICH would be associated with a net loss of QALY. Additional factors should be considered before anticoagulating patients with AF after ICH. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00930280.

Project description:Given that substantial genetic components have been shown in ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), heritability may be higher in early-onset than late-onset individuals with these conditions. Although genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified various genes and loci significantly associated with ischemic stroke, ICH, or intracranial aneurysm mainly in European ancestry populations, genetic variants that contribute to susceptibility to these disorders remain to be identified definitively. We performed exome-wide association studies (EWASs) to identify genetic variants that confer susceptibility to ischemic stroke, ICH, or SAH in early-onset subjects with these conditions. A total of 6,649 individuals aged ?65 years were examined. For the EWAS of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, 6,224 individuals (450 subjects with ischemic stroke, 5,774 controls) or 6,179 individuals (261 subjects with ICH, 176 subjects with SAH, 5,742 controls), respectively, were examined. EWASs were performed with the use of Illumina Human Exome-12 v1.2 DNA Analysis BeadChip or Infinium Exome-24 v1.0 BeadChip. To compensate for multiple comparisons of allele frequencies with ischemic stroke, ICH, or SAH, we applied a false discovery rate (FDR) of <0.05 for statistical significance of association. The association of allele frequencies of 31,245 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that passed quality control to ischemic stroke was examined with Fisher's exact test, and 31 SNPs were significantly (FDR <0.05) associated with ischemic stroke. The association of allele frequencies of 31,253 or 30,970 SNPs to ICH or SAH, respectively, was examined with Fisher's exact test, and six or two SNPs were significantly associated with ICH or SAH, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis with adjustment for age, sex, and the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes mellitus revealed that 12 SNPs were significantly [P<0.0004 (0.05/124)] related to ischemic stroke. Similar analysis with adjustment for age, sex, and the prevalence of hypertension revealed that six or two SNPs were significantly [P<0.0016 (0.05/32)] related to ICH or SAH, respectively. After examination of linkage disequilibrium of identified SNPs and results of previous GWASs, we identified HHIPL2, CTNNA3, LOC643770, UTP20, and TRIB3 as susceptibility loci for ischemic stroke, DNTTIP2 and FAM205A as susceptibility loci for ICH, and FAM160A1 and OR52E4 as such loci for SAH. Therefore, to the best of our knowledge, we have newly identified nine genes that confer susceptibility to early-onset ischemic stroke, ICH, or SAH. Determination of genotypes for the SNPs in these genes may prove informative for assessment of the genetic risk for ischemic stroke, ICH, or SAH in Japanese.

Project description:Background and Purpose- The risk of arterial ischemic events after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is poorly understood given the lack of a control group in prior studies. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of acute ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) among patients with and without ICH. Methods- We performed a retrospective cohort study using claims data from Medicare beneficiaries from 2008 to 2014. Our exposure was acute ICH, identified using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes. Our primary outcome was a composite of acute ischemic stroke and MI, whereas secondary outcomes were ischemic stroke alone and MI alone. We used Cox regression analysis to compute hazard ratios during 1-month intervals after ICH. Sensitivity analyses entailed exclusion of patients with atrial fibrillation and valvular heart disease. Results- Among 1 760 439 Medicare beneficiaries, 5924 had ICH. The 1-year cumulative incidence of an arterial ischemic event was 5.7% (95% CI, 4.8-6.8) in patients with ICH and 1.8% (95% CI, 1.7-1.9) in patients without ICH. After adjusting for potential confounders, the risk of an arterial ischemic event remained significantly increased for the first 6 months after ICH and was especially high in the first month (hazard ratio, 6.7 [95% CI, 5.0-8.6]). In secondary analysis, the risk of ischemic stroke was increased in the first 6 months after ICH (hazard ratio, 6.1 [95% CI, 3.5-9.3]) but the risk of MI was not (hazard ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 0.3-2.9]). In sensitivity analyses excluding patients with atrial fibrillation and valvular heart disease, the association between ICH and arterial ischemic events was similar to that of the primary analysis. Conclusions- In a large population-based cohort, we found that elderly patients with ICH had a substantially increased risk of ischemic stroke in the first 6 months after diagnosis. Further exploration of this risk is needed to determine optimal secondary prevention strategies for these patients.

Dataset Information

Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Separate prediction of intracerebral hemorrhage and ischemic stroke.

Similar Datasets

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