Dataset Information

Uncertainty in model predictions of Vibrio vulnificus response to climate variability and change: a Chesapeake Bay case study.

ABSTRACT: The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4°C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

SUBMITTER: Urquhart EA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4038616 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Uncertainty in model predictions of Vibrio vulnificus response to climate variability and change: a Chesapeake Bay case study.

Urquhart Erin A EA Zaitchik Benjamin F BF Waugh Darryn W DW Guikema Seth D SD Del Castillo Carlos E CE

PloS one 20140529 5

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4°C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vib ...[more]

PMID: 24874082

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Project description:Vibrio vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus in the estuarine-marine environment are of human health significance and may be increasing in pathogenicity and abundance. Vibrio illness originating from dermal contact with Vibrio laden waters or through ingestion of seafood originating from such waters can cause deleterious health effects, particularly if the strains involved are resistant to clinically important antibiotics. The purpose of this study was to evaluate antimicrobial susceptibility among these pathogens. Surface-water samples were collected from three sites of recreational and commercial importance from July to September 2009. Samples were plated onto species-specific media and resulting V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus strains were confirmed using polymerase chain reaction assays and tested for antimicrobial susceptibility using the Sensititre® microbroth dilution system. Descriptive statistics, Friedman two-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA were used to analyze the data. Vibrio vulnificus (n = 120) and V. parahaemolyticus (n = 77) were isolated from all sampling sites. Most isolates were susceptible to antibiotics recommended for treating Vibrio infections, although the majority of isolates expressed intermediate resistance to chloramphenicol (78% of V. vulnificus, 96% of V. parahaemolyticus). Vibrio parahaemolyticus also demonstrated resistance to penicillin (68%). Sampling location or month did not significantly impact V. parahaemolyticus resistance patterns, but V. vulnificus isolates from St. Martin's River had lower overall intermediate resistance than that of the other two sampling sites during the month of July (p = 0.0166). Antibiotics recommended to treat adult Vibrio infections were effective in suppressing bacterial growth, while some antibiotics recommended for pediatric treatment were not effective against some of the recovered isolates. To our knowledge, these are the first antimicrobial susceptibility data of V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus recovered from the Chesapeake Bay. These data can serve as a baseline against which future studies can be compared to evaluate whether susceptibilities change over time.

Project description:Vibrio parahaemolyticus naturally-occurs in brackish and marine waters and is one of the leading causes of seafood-borne illness. Previous work studying the ecology of V. parahaemolyticus is often limited in geographic extent and lacking a full range of environmental measures. This study used a unique, large dataset of surface water samples in the Chesapeake Bay (n=1,385) collected from 148 monitoring stations from 2007 to 2010. Water was analyzed for over 20 environmental parameters with additional meteorological and surrounding land use data. V. parahaemolyticus-specific genetic markers thermolabile hemolysin (tlh), thermostable direct hemolysin (tdh), and tdh-related hemolysin (trh) were assayed using quantitative PCR (qPCR), and interval-censored regression models with non-linear effects were estimated to account for limits of detection and quantitation. tlh was detected in 19.6% of water samples; tdh or trh markers were not detected. Results confirmed previously reported positive associations for V. parahaemolyticus abundance with temperature and turbidity and negative associations with high salinity (> 10-23‰). Furthermore, the salinity relationship was determined to be a function of both low temperature and turbidity, with an increase of either nullifying the high salinity effect. Associations with dissolved oxygen and phosphate also appeared stronger when samples were taken nearby human developments. Renewed focus on the V. parahaemolyticus ecological paradigm is warranted to protect public health.ImportanceVibrio parahaemolyticus is one of the leading causes of seafood-borne illness in the United States and across the globe. Exposure is often through consuming raw or undercooked shellfish. Given the natural presence of the bacterium in the marine environment, improved understanding of its environmental determinants is necessary for future preventative measures. This analysis of environmental Vibrio parahaemolyticus is one of only a few that utilize a large dataset measured over a wide geographic and temporal range. The analysis also includes a large number of environmental parameters for Vibrio modeling, many of which have previously only been tested sporadically, and some of which have not been considered before. The results of the analysis revealed previously unknown relationships between salinity, turbidity, and temperature that provide significant insight into the abundance and persistence of V.parahaemolyticus bacterium in the environment. This information will be essential for developing environmental forecast models for the bacterium.

Project description:The Chesapeake Bay watershed has been the focus of pioneering studies of the role of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition as a nutrient source and driver of estuarine trophic status. Here, we review the history and evolution of scientific investigations of the role of atmospheric N deposition, examine trends from wet and dry deposition networks, and present century-long (1950-2050) atmospheric N deposition estimates. Early investigations demonstrated the importance of atmospheric deposition as an N source to the Bay, providing 25%-40% among all major N sources. These early studies led to the unprecedented inclusion of targeted decreases in atmospheric N deposition as part of the multi-stakeholder effort to reduce N loads to the Bay. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and deposition of wet nitrate, oxidized dry N, and dry ammonium (NH4+) sharply and synchronously declined by 60%-73% during 1995-2019. These decreases largely resulted from implementation of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, which began in 1995. Wet NH4+ deposition shows no significant trend during this period. The century-long atmospheric N deposition estimates indicate an increase in total atmospheric N deposition in the Chesapeake watershed from 1950 to a peak of ~15 kg N/ha/yr in 1979, trailed by a slight decline of <10% through the mid-1990s, and followed by a sharp decline of about 40% thereafter through 2019. An additional 21% decline in atmospheric N deposition is projected from 2015 to 2050. A comparison of the Potomac River and James River watersheds indicates higher atmospheric N deposition in the Potomac, likely resulting from greater emissions from higher proportions of agricultural and urban land in this basin. Atmospheric N deposition rose from 30% among all N sources to the Chesapeake Bay watershed in 1950 to a peak of 40% in 1973, and a decline to 28% by 2015. These data highlight the important role of atmospheric N deposition in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and present a potential opportunity for decreases in deposition to contribute to further reducing N loads and improving the trophic status of tidal waters.

Dataset Information

Uncertainty in model predictions of Vibrio vulnificus response to climate variability and change: a Chesapeake Bay case study.

Publications

Uncertainty in model predictions of Vibrio vulnificus response to climate variability and change: a Chesapeake Bay case study.

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