Estimating the burden of paratyphoid a in Asia and Africa.
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SUBMITTER: Arndt MB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4046978 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundRheumatoid arthritis (RA) has an estimated worldwide prevalence of 1%. It is one of the leading causes of chronic morbidity in the developed world, but little is known about the disease burden in Africa. RA is often seen as a minor health problem and has been neglected in research and resource allocation throughout Africa despite potentially fatal systemic manifestations. This review aims to identify all relevant epidemiological literature pertaining to the occurrence of RA in Africa and calculate the prevalence and burden of disease.MethodsA systematic literature review of Medline, Embase and Global Health Library retrieved a total of 335 publications, of which 10 population studies and 11 hospital studies met pre-defined minimum criteria for relevance and quality. Data on prevalence was extracted, analysed and compared between population and hospital studies. Differences between genders were also analysed.FindingsThe estimated crude prevalence of RA in Africa based on the available studies was 0.36% in 1990, which translates to a burden of 2.3 million affected individuals in 1990. Projections for the African population in 2010 based on the same prevalence rates would suggest a crude prevalence of 0.42% and the burden increased to 4.3 million. Only 2 population studies have been conducted after 1990, so projections for 2010 are uncertain. Hospital-based studies under-report the prevalence by about 6 times in comparison to population-based studies.ConclusionThe availability of epidemiological information on RA in Africa is very limited. More studies need to be conducted to estimate the true burden and patterns of RA before appropriate health policies can be developed.
| S-EPMC3529310 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Severe forms of α-thalassaemia, haemoglobin H disease and haemoglobin Bart's hydrops fetalis, are an important public health concern in Southeast Asia. Yet information on the prevalence, genetic diversity and health burden of α-thalassaemia in the region remains limited. We compiled a geodatabase of α-thalassaemia prevalence and genetic diversity surveys and, using geostatistical modelling methods, generated the first continuous maps of α-thalassaemia mutations in Thailand and sub-national estimates of the number of newborns with severe forms in 2020. We also summarised the current evidence-base for α-thalassaemia prevalence and diversity for the region. We estimate that 3595 (95% credible interval 1,717-6,199) newborns will be born with severe α-thalassaemia in Thailand in 2020, which is considerably higher than previous estimates. Accurate, fine-scale epidemiological data are necessary to guide sustainable national and regional health policies for α-thalassaemia management. Our maps and newborn estimates are an important first step towards this aim.Editorial noteThis article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).
| S-EPMC6533055 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTyphoid is an important public health challenge for India, especially with the spread of antimicrobial resistance. The decision about whether to introduce a public vaccination programme needs to be based on an understanding of disease burden and the age-groups and geographic areas at risk.MethodsWe searched Medline and Web of Science databases for studies reporting the incidence or prevalence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever confirmed by culture and/or serology, conducted in India and published between 1950 and 2015. We used binomial and Poisson mixed-effects meta-regression models to estimate prevalence and incidence from hospital and community studies, and to identify risk-factors.ResultsWe identified 791 titles and abstracts, and included 37 studies of typhoid and 18 studies of paratyphoid in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The estimated prevalence of laboratory-confirmed typhoid and paratyphoid among individuals with fever across all hospital studies was 9.7% (95% CI: 5.7-16.0%) and 0.9% (0.5-1.7%) respectively. There was significant heterogeneity among studies (p-values<0.001). Typhoid was more likely to be detected among clinically suspected cases or during outbreaks and showed a significant decline in prevalence over time (odds ratio for each yearly increase in study date was 0.96 (0.92-0.99) in the multivariate meta-regression model). Paratyphoid did not show any trend over time and there was no clear association with risk-factors. Incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid was reported in 3 and 2 community cohort studies respectively (in Kolkata and Delhi, or Kolkata alone). Pooled estimates of incidence were 377 (178-801) and 105 (74-148) per 100,000 person years respectively, with significant heterogeneity between locations for typhoid (p<0.001). Children 2-4 years old had the highest incidence.ConclusionsTyphoid remains a significant burden in India, particularly among young children, despite apparent declines in prevalence. Infant immunisation with newly-licensed conjugate vaccines could address this challenge.
| S-EPMC4833325 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRapid increase in life expectancy in low- and middle-income countries including the World Health Organization's Southeast Asia Region (SEAR) has resulted in an increase in the global burden of dementia, which is expected to become a leading cause of morbidity. Accurate burden estimates are key for informing policy and planning. Given the paucity of data, estimates were developed using both a Bayesian methodology and as well as a traditional frequentist approach to gain better insights into methodological approaches for disease burden estimates.MethodsSeven databases were searched for studies published between 2010-2018 regarding dementia prevalence in SEAR, generating 8 relevant articles. A random-effects model (REM) and a Bayesian normal-normal hierarchical model (NNHM) were used to obtain the pooled prevalence estimate of dementia for people aged 60 and above in SEAR. The latter model was also developed to estimate age-specific dementia prevalence. Using UN population estimates for SEAR, total and age-specific projections of the burden of dementia in 2015, 2020 and 2030 were calculated.ResultsThe prevalence of dementia in SEAR was found to be 3% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2-6%) in those above age 60 based on REM, and 3.1% (95% credible interval = 1.5-5.0%) based on the NNHM. The estimated prevalence varies with age, increasing from 1.6% (95% credible interval = 0.8-2.5%) in people aged 60-69 to 12.4% (95% credible interval = 5.6-20%) in people above the age of 80. The risk of developing dementia increased exponentially with age. The number of people living with dementia in SEAR in 2015 was estimated at 5.51 million (95% credible interval = 2.66-8.82), with projections of 6.66 million (95% credible interval = 3.21-10.7) in 2020 and 9.6 million (95% credible interval = 4.62-15.36) in 2030.ConclusionThe burden of dementia in SEAR is substantial and will continue to increase rapidly by 2030. The lack of research focusing on dementia in SEAR points to a significant under-recognition of this disease. The projected rise in dementia cases in the future should prompt urgent governmental response to address this growing public health issue. We also argue that given the overall paucity of data for the region, the Bayesian approach offers a promising methodology for improved estimates of disease prevalence and burden and should continue to be explored.
| S-EPMC7688200 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEfforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them.MethodsFor this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers.FindingsGlobally, 14·3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·5-16·3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44·6% (42·2-47·0) decline from 25·9 million (22·0-29·9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54·9% (53·4-56·5), from 439·2 (376·7-507·7) per 100 000 person-years in 1990, to 197·8 (172·0-226·2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76·3% (71·8-80·5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0·95% (0·54-1·53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135·9 thousand (76·9-218·9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41·0% (33·6-48·3) decline from 230·5 thousand (131·2-372·6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9·8 million (5·6-15·8) DALYs in 2017, down 43·0% (35·5-50·6) from 17·2 million (9·9-27·8) DALYs in 1990.InterpretationDespite notable progress, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers remain major causes of disability and death, with billions of people likely to be exposed to the pathogens. Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use (including with typhoid conjugate vaccines that are effective in infants and young children and protective for longer periods) and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the disease.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC6437314 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEnteric fever is a serious public health concern in many low-income and middle-income countries. Numerous data gaps exist concerning the epidemiology of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) and Salmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi (S Paratyphi), which are the causative agents of enteric fever. We aimed to determine the burden of enteric fever in three urban sites in Africa and Asia.MethodsIn this multicentre population-based study, we did a demographic census at three urban sites in Africa (Blantyre, Malawi) and Asia (Kathmandu, Nepal and Dhaka, Bangladesh) between June 1, 2016, and Sept 25, 2018. Households were selected randomly from the demographic census. Participants from within the geographical census area presenting to study health-care facilities were approached for recruitment if they had a history of fever for 72 h or more (later changed to >48 h) or temperature of 38·0°C or higher. Facility-based passive surveillance was done between Nov 11, 2016, and Dec 31, 2018, with blood-culture collection for febrile illness. We also did a community-based serological survey to obtain data on Vi-antibody defined infections. We calculated crude incidence for blood-culture-confirmed S Typhi and S Paratyphi infection, and calculated adjusted incidence and seroincidence of S Typhi blood-culture-confirmed infection.Findings423 618 individuals were included in the demographic census, contributing 626 219 person-years of observation for febrile illness surveillance. 624 S Typhi and 108 S Paratyphi A isolates were collected from the blood of 12 082 febrile patients. Multidrug resistance was observed in 44% S Typhi isolates and fluoroquinolone resistance in 61% of S Typhi isolates. In Blantyre, the overall crude incidence of blood-culture confirmed S Typhi was 58 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% CI 48-70); the adjusted incidence was 444 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% credible interval [CrI] 347-717). The corresponding rates were 74 (95% CI 62-87) and 1062 (95% CrI 683-1839) in Kathmandu, and 161 (95% CI 145-179) and 1135 (95% CrI 898-1480) in Dhaka. S Paratyphi was not found in Blantyre; overall crude incidence of blood-culture-confirmed S Paratyphi A infection was 6 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% CI 3-11) in Kathmandu and 42 (95% CI 34-52) in Dhaka. Seroconversion rates for S Typhi infection per 100 000 person-years estimated from anti-Vi seroconversion episodes in serological surveillance were 2505 episodes (95% CI 1605-3727) in Blantyre, 7631 (95% CI 5913-9691) in Kathmandu, and 3256 (95% CI 2432-4270) in Dhaka.InterpretationHigh disease incidence and rates of antimicrobial resistance were observed across three different transmission settings and thus necessitate multiple intervention strategies to achieve global control of these pathogens.FundingWellcome Trust and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC8609278 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Numerous population-based studies have documented high prevalence of aflatoxin associated childhood stunting in low income countries. We provide an estimate of the disease burden of aflatoxin related stunting using data from the four African countries. For this empirical analysis, we obtained blood aflatoxin albumin adduct biomarker based exposure data as measured using ELISA technique and anthropometric measurement data from surveys done over a 12-year period from 2001 to 2012 in four low income countries in Africa. We used these data to calculate population attributable risk (PAR), life time disease burden for children under five by comparing two groups of stunted children using both prevalence and incidence-based approaches. We combined prevalence estimates with a disability weight, measuring childhood stunting and co-occurrence of stunting-underweight to produce years lived with disability. Using a previously reported mortality, years of life lost were estimated. We used probabilistic analysis to model these associations to estimate the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and compared these with those given by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. The PAR increased from 3 to 36% for aflatoxin-related stunting and 14-50% for co-occurrence of stunting and underweight. Using prevalence-based approach, children with aflatoxin related stunting resulted in 48,965.20 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 45,868.75-52,207.53) DALYs per 100,000 individuals. Children with co-occurrence of stunting and underweight due to exposure to aflatoxin resulted in 40,703.41 (95% UI: 38,041.57-43,517.89) DALYs per 100,000 individuals. Uncertainty analysis revealed that reducing aflatoxin exposure in high exposure areas upto non-detectable levels could save the stunting DALYs up to 50%. The burden of childhood all causes stunting is greater in countries with higher aflatoxin exposure such as Benin. In high exposure areas, these results might help guide research protocols and prioritisation efforts and focus aflatoxin exposure reduction. HEFCE Global Challenge Research Fund Aflatoxin project.
| S-EPMC7810982 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundYellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods.Methods and findingsGeneralised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone. The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000-380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000-180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%-31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys.ConclusionsWith the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns.
| S-EPMC4011853 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPrecise enteric fever disease burden data are needed to inform prevention and control measures, including the use of newly available typhoid vaccines. We established the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP) to inform these strategies.MethodsFrom September, 2016, to September, 2019, we conducted prospective clinical surveillance for Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) and Paratyphi (S Paratyphi) A, B, and C at health facilities in predetermined catchment areas in Dhaka, Bangladesh; Kathmandu and Kavrepalanchok, Nepal; and Karachi, Pakistan. Patients eligible for inclusion were outpatients with 3 or more consecutive days of fever in the last 7 days; inpatients with suspected or confirmed enteric fever; patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever from the hospital laboratories not captured by inpatient or outpatient enrolment and cases from the laboratory network; and patients with non-traumatic ileal perforation under surgical care. We used a hybrid surveillance model, pairing facility-based blood culture surveillance with community surveys of health-care use. Blood cultures were performed for enrolled patients. We calculated overall and age-specific typhoid and paratyphoid incidence estimates for each study site. Adjusted estimates accounted for the sensitivity of blood culture, the proportion of eligible individuals who consented and provided blood, the probability of care-seeking at a study facility, and the influence of wealth and education on care-seeking. We additionally calculated incidence of hospitalisation due to typhoid and paratyphoid.FindingsA total of 34 747 patients were enrolled across 23 facilitates (six tertiary hospitals, surgical wards of two additional hospitals, and 15 laboratory network sites) during the study period. Of the 34 303 blood cultures performed on enrolled patients, 8705 (26%) were positive for typhoidal Salmonella. Adjusted incidence rates of enteric fever considered patients in the six tertiary hospitals. Adjusted incidence of S Typhi, expressed per 100 000 person-years, was 913 (95% CI 765-1095) in Dhaka. In Nepal, the adjusted typhoid incidence rates were 330 (230-480) in Kathmandu and 268 (202-362) in Kavrepalanchok. In Pakistan, the adjusted incidence rates per hospital site were 176 (144-216) and 103 (85-126). The adjusted incidence rates of paratyphoid (of which all included cases were due to S Paratyphi A) were 128 (107-154) in Bangladesh, 46 (34-62) and 81 (56-118) in the Nepal sites, and 23 (19-29) and 1 (1-1) in the Pakistan sites. Adjusted incidence of hospitalisation was high across sites, and overall, 2804 (32%) of 8705 patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever were hospitalised.InterpretationAcross diverse communities in three south Asian countries, adjusted incidence exceeded the threshold for "high burden" of enteric fever (100 per 100 000 person-years). Incidence was highest among children, although age patterns differed across sites. The substantial disease burden identified highlights the need for control measures, including improvements to water and sanitation infrastructure and the implementation of typhoid vaccines.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC9210262 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate whole-brain microinfarct burden from microinfarct counts in routine postmortem examination.MethodsWe developed a simple mathematical method to estimate the total number of cerebral microinfarcts from counts obtained in the small amount of tissue routinely examined in brain autopsies. We derived estimates of total microinfarct burden from autopsy brain specimens from 648 older participants in 2 community-based clinical-pathologic cohort studies of aging and dementia.ResultsOur results indicate that observing 1 or 2 microinfarcts in 9 routine neuropathologic specimens implies a maximum-likelihood estimate of 552 or 1,104 microinfarcts throughout the brain. Similar estimates were obtained when validating in larger sampled brain volumes.ConclusionsThe substantial whole-brain burden of cerebral microinfarcts suggested by even a few microinfarcts on routine pathologic sampling suggests a potential mechanism by which these lesions could cause neurologic dysfunction in individuals with small-vessel disease. The estimation framework developed here may generalize to clinicopathologic correlations of other imaging-negative micropathologies.
| S-EPMC3662273 | biostudies-literature