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Predicting six-month mortality of patients with traumatic brain injury: usefulness of common intensive care severity scores.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score II) and SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) scores compared to simpler models based on age and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) in predicting long-term outcome of patients with moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) treated in the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: A national ICU database was screened for eligible TBI patients (age over 15 years, GCS 3-13) admitted in 2003-2012. Logistic regression was used for customization of APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA score-based models for six-month mortality prediction. These models were compared to an adjusted SOFA-based model (including age) and a reference model (age and GCS). Internal validation was performed by a randomized split-sample technique. Prognostic performance was determined by assessing discrimination, calibration and precision. RESULTS: In total, 1,625 patients were included. The overall six-month mortality was 33%. The APACHE II and SAPS II-based models showed good discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 0.82; and 0.80, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.83, respectively), calibration (P?>?0.05) and precision (Brier score 0.166 to 0.167). The SOFA-based model showed poor discrimination (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.72) and precision (Brier score 0.201) but good calibration (P?>?0.05). The AUC of the SOFA-based model was significantly improved after the insertion of age and GCS (?AUC +0.11, P??0.05) and precision (Brier score 0.181). CONCLUSIONS: A simple prognostic model, based only on age and GCS, displayed a fairly good prognostic performance in predicting six-month mortality of ICU-treated patients with TBI. The use of the more complex scoring systems APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA added little to the prognostic performance.

SUBMITTER: Raj R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4056363 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting six-month mortality of patients with traumatic brain injury: usefulness of common intensive care severity scores.

Raj Rahul R Skrifvars Markus M Bendel Stepani S Selander Tuomas T Kivisaari Riku R Siironen Jari J Reinikainen Matti M

Critical care (London, England) 20140403 2

<h4>Introduction</h4>The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score II) and SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) scores compared to simpler models based on age and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) in predicting long-term outcome of patients with moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) treated in the intensive care unit (ICU).<h4>Methods</h4>A national ICU database was scre ...[more]

PMID: 24708781

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Project description:RationaleUnderstanding long-term outcomes of critically ill patients may inform shared decision-making in the intensive care unit (ICU).ObjectivesTo quantify 6-month functional outcomes of general ICU patients, and develop a multivariable model comprising factors present during the first ICU day to predict which patients will return to their baseline function 6 months later.MethodsWe conducted a prospective cohort study in three medical ICUs and two surgical ICUs in three hospitals. We enrolled patients who spent at least 3 days in the ICU and received mechanical ventilation for more than 48 hours and/or vasoactive infusions for more than 24 hours.ResultsWe measured 6-month outcomes including survival, return to original place of residence, and physical and cognitive function. Of 303 enrolled patients, 299 (98.7%) had complete follow-up at 6 months. Among the 169 patients (56.5%) who survived to 6 months, 82.8% returned home, 81.9% were able to toilet, 71.3% were able to ambulate 10 stairs, and 62.4% reported normal cognition. Overall, 31.1% of patients returned to their baseline status on these measures. Factors associated with not returning to baseline included higher APACHE III score, being a medical patient, older age, nonwhite race, recent hospitalization, prior transplantation, and a history of cancer or of neurologic or liver disease. A model including only these Day 1 factors had good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.778; 95% confidence interval, 0.724-0.832) and calibration (difference between observed and expected P value, 0.36).ConclusionsAmong patients spending at least 3 days in an ICU and requiring even brief periods of life-sustaining therapy, nearly one-half will be dead and less than one-third will have returned to their baseline status at 6 months. Of those who survive, the majority of patients will be back at home at 6 months. Future research is needed to validate this multivariable model, including readily available patient characteristics available on the first ICU day, that seems to identify patients who will return to baseline at 6 months.

Project description:INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury (AKI) has high incidence among the critically ill and associates with dismal outcome. Not only the long-term survival, but also the quality of life (QOL) of patients with AKI is relevant due to substantial burden of care regarding these patients. We aimed to study the long-term outcome and QOL of patients with AKI treated in intensive care units. METHODS: We conducted a predefined six-month follow-up of adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients from the prospective, observational, multi-centre FINNAKI study. We evaluated the QOL of survivors with the EuroQol (EQ-5D) questionnaire. We included all participating sites with at least 70% rate of QOL measurements in the analysis. RESULTS: Of the 1,568 study patients, 635 (40.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 38.0-43.0%) had AKI according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. Of the 635 AKI patients, 224 (35.3%), as compared to 154/933 (16.5%) patients without AKI, died within six months. Of the 1,190 survivors, 959 (80.6%) answered the EQ-5D questionnaire at six months. The QOL (median with Interquartile range, IQR) measured with the EQ-5D index and compared to age- and sex-matched general population was: 0.676 (0.520-1.00) versus 0.826 (0.812-0.859) for AKI patients, and 0.690 (0.533-1.00) versus 0.845 (0.812-0.882) for patients without AKI (P?<0.001 in both). The EQ-5D at the time of ICU admission was available for 774 (80.7%) of the six-month respondents. We detected a mean increase of 0.017 for non-AKI and of 0.024 for AKI patients in the EQ-5D index (P?=?0.728). The EQ-5D visual analogue scores (median with IQR) of patients with AKI (70 (50-83)) and patients without AKI (75 (60-87)) were not different from the age- and sex-matched general population (69 (68-73) and 70 (68-77)). CONCLUSIONS: The health-related quality of life of patients with and without AKI was already lower on ICU admission than that of the age- and sex-matched general population, and did not change significantly during critical illness. Patients with and without AKI rate their subjective health to be as good as age and sex-matched general population despite statistically significantly lower QOL indexes measured by EQ-5D.

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Predicting six-month mortality of patients with traumatic brain injury: usefulness of common intensive care severity scores.

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Predicting six-month mortality of patients with traumatic brain injury: usefulness of common intensive care severity scores.

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