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Prediction of mortality in adult patients with severe acute lung failure receiving veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a prospective observational study.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (vvECMO) can be a life-saving therapy in patients with severe acute lung failure refractory to conventional therapy. Nevertheless, vvECMO is a procedure associated with high costs and resource utilization. The aim of this study was to assess published models for prediction of mortality following vvECMO and optimize an alternative model. METHODS: Established mortality risk scores were validated to assess their usefulness in 304 adult patients undergoing vvECMO for refractory lung failure at the University Medical Center Regensburg from 2008 to 2013. A parsimonious prediction model was developed based on variables available before ECMO initiation using logistic regression modelling. We then assessed whether addition of variables available one day after ECMO implementation enhanced mortality prediction. Models were internally validated and calibrated by bootstrapping (400 runs). Predictive ability, goodness-of-fit and model discrimination were compared across the different models. RESULTS: In the present study population, existing mortality prediction tools for vvECMO patients showed suboptimal performance. Evaluated before vvECMO initiation, a logistic prediction model comprising age, immunocompromised state, artificial minute ventilation, pre-ECMO serum lactate and hemoglobin concentrations showed best mortality prediction in our patients (area under curve, AUC: 0.75). Additional information about norepinephrine dosage, fraction of inspired oxygen, C-reactive protein and fibrinogen concentrations the first day following ECMO initiation further improved discrimination (AUC: 0.79, P?=?0.03) and predictive ability (likelihood ratio test, P?80%) risk based on their predicted mortality, the pre-ECMO and day1-on-ECMO models had negative/positive predictive values of 76%/82% and 82%/81%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While pre-ECMO mortality prediction remains a challenge due to large patient heterogeneity, evaluation one day after ECMO initiation may improve the ability to separate lower- and higher-risk patients. Our findings support the clinical perception that chronic health condition, high comorbidity and reduced functional reserves are strongly related to survival during and following ECMO support. Renewed evaluation the first day after ECMO initiation may provide enhanced guidance for further handling of ECMO patients. Despite the usefulness of prediction models, thorough clinical evaluation should always represent the cornerstone in decision for ECMO.

SUBMITTER: Enger T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4057201 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of mortality in adult patients with severe acute lung failure receiving veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a prospective observational study.

Enger Tone T Philipp Alois A Videm Vibeke V Lubnow Matthias M Wahba Alexander A Fischer Marcus M Schmid Christof C Bein Thomas T Müller Thomas T

Critical care (London, England) 20140409 2

<h4>Introduction</h4>Veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (vvECMO) can be a life-saving therapy in patients with severe acute lung failure refractory to conventional therapy. Nevertheless, vvECMO is a procedure associated with high costs and resource utilization. The aim of this study was to assess published models for prediction of mortality following vvECMO and optimize an alternative model.<h4>Methods</h4>Established mortality risk scores were validated to assess their usefulness i ...[more]

PMID: 24716510

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Project description:BackgroundWe tested the effect of different blood flow levels in the extracorporeal circuit on the measurements of cardiac stroke volume (SV), global end-diastolic volume index (GEDVI) and extravascular lung water index derived from transpulmonary thermodilution (TPTD) in 20 patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) treated with veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).MethodsComparative SV measurements with transesophageal echocardiography and TPTD were performed at least 5 times during the treatment of the patients. The data were interpreted with a Bland-Altman analysis corrected for repeated measurements. The interchangeability between both measurement modalities was calculated and the effects of extracorporeal blood flow on SV measurements with TPTD was analysed with a linear mixed effect model. GEDVI and EVLWI measurements were performed immediately before the termination of the ECMO therapy at a blood flow of 6 l/min, 4 l/min and 2 l/min and after the disconnection of the circuit in 7 patients.Results170 pairs of comparative SV measurements were analysed. Average difference between the two modalities (bias) was 0.28 ml with an upper level of agreement of 40 ml and a lower level of agreement of -39 ml within a 95% confidence interval and an overall interchangeability rate between TPTD and Echo of 64%. ECMO blood flow did not influence the mean bias between Echo and TPTD (0.03 ml per l/min of ECMO blood flow; p = 0.992; CI - 6.74 to 6.81). GEDVI measurement was not significantly influenced by the blood flow in the ECMO circuit, whereas EVLWI differed at a blood flow of 6 l/min compared to no ECMO flow (25.9 ± 10.1 vs. 11.0 ± 4.2 ml/kg, p = 0.0035).ConclusionsIrrespectively of an established ECMO therapy, comparative SV measurements with Echo and TPTD are not interchangeable. Such caveats also apply to the interpretation of EVLWI, especially with a high blood flow in the extracorporeal circulation. In such situations, the clinician should rely on other methods of evaluation of the amount of lung oedema with the haemodynamic situation, vasopressor support and cumulative fluid balance in mind.Trial registrationGerman Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00021050). Registered 03/30/2020 https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00017237.

Dataset Information

Prediction of mortality in adult patients with severe acute lung failure receiving veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a prospective observational study.

Publications

Prediction of mortality in adult patients with severe acute lung failure receiving veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a prospective observational study.

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