What is the best predictor of mortality in perforated peptic ulcer disease? A population-based, multivariable regression analysis including three clinical scoring systems.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Mortality rates in perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) have remained unchanged. The aim of this study was to compare known clinical factors and three scoring systems (American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), Boey and peptic ulcer perforation (PULP)) in the ability to predict mortality in PPU.Material and methods
This is a consecutive, observational cohort study of patients surgically treated for perforated peptic ulcer over a decade (January 2001 through December 2010). Primary outcome was 30-day mortality.Results
A total of 172 patients were included, of whom 28 (16 %) died within 30 days. Among the factors associated with mortality, the PULP score had an odds ratio (OR) of 18.6 and the ASA score had an OR of 11.6, both with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79. The Boey score had an OR of 5.0 and an AUC of 0.75. Hypoalbuminaemia alone (≤37 g/l) achieved an OR of 8.7 and an AUC of 0.78. In multivariable regression, mortality was best predicted by a combination of increasing age, presence of active cancer and delay from admission to surgery of >24 h, together with hypoalbuminaemia, hyperbilirubinaemia and increased creatinine values, for a model AUC of 0.89.Conclusion
Six clinical factors predicted 30-day mortality better than available risk scores. Hypoalbuminaemia was the strongest single predictor of mortality and may be included for improved risk estimation.
SUBMITTER: Thorsen K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4057623 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Perforated peptic ulcer is a common emergency condition worldwide, with associated mortality rates of up to 30%. A scarcity of high-quality studies about the condition limits the knowledge base for clinical decision making, but a few published randomised trials are available. Although Helicobacter pylori and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are common causes, demographic differences in age, sex, perforation location, and underlying causes exist between countries, and mortality rates also vary. Clinical prediction rules are used, but accuracy varies with study population. Early surgery, either by laparoscopic or open repair, and proper sepsis management are essential for good outcome. Selected patients can be managed non-operatively or with novel endoscopic approaches, but validation of such methods in trials is needed. Quality of care, sepsis care bundles, and postoperative monitoring need further assessment. Adequate trials with low risk of bias are urgently needed to provide better evidence. We summarise the evidence for perforated peptic ulcer management and identify directions for future clinical research.
| S-EPMC4618390 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background/objectiveEarly identification of mortality risk in perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) patients is important for triage and risk stratification. This study aimed to compare clinical and laboratory factors and three scoring systems to predict mortality in PPU patients.MethodsRetrospective data on PPU patients at M. Djamil Hospital who underwent emergency laparotomy repair surgery were collected from December 2018 to May 2021. The data included demographics, clinical characteristics, and three scoring systems. Data analysis used bivariate, multivariate, and ROC analysis.ResultsA total 72 patients were included and mortality rate was 52.8%. Bivariate analysis showed a significant association between age (p = 0.029), onset of illness (p = 0.001), alteration of consciousness (p = <0.001), respiratory rate (p = 0.04), duration of surgery (p = 0.040), preoperative shock (p = 0.049), preoperative creatinine (p = <0.001), Boey's scores (p = 0.002), ASA (p = 0.001), and qSOFA scores (p = <0.001) with mortality in PPU patients. From multivariate analysis, the strongest clinical factors associated with mortality were alteration of consciousness (p = <0.001) and preoperative creatinine (p = 0.001). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis showed the area under the curve (AUC) of Boey's Score 0.73, ASA classification 0.69, qSOFA score 0.77, alteration of consciousness 0.74, and preoperative creatinine 0.78.ConclusionPreoperative creatinine and altered consciousness had the strongest association with mortality in PPU patients. The qSOFA score predicted mortality better than Boey's score and ASA classification. Preoperative creatinine was the best single predictor of mortality.
| S-EPMC8385391 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Peptic ulcer disease is common with a lifetime prevalence in the general population of 5-10% and an incidence of 0.1-0.3% per year. Despite a sharp reduction in incidence and rates of hospital admission and mortality over the past 30?years, complications are still encountered in 10-20% of these patients. Peptic ulcer disease remains a significant healthcare problem, which can consume considerable financial resources. Management may involve various subspecialties including surgeons, gastroenterologists, and radiologists. Successful management of patients with complicated peptic ulcer (CPU) involves prompt recognition, resuscitation when required, appropriate antibiotic therapy, and timely surgical/radiological treatment. Methods:The present guidelines have been developed according to the GRADE methodology. To create these guidelines, a panel of experts was designed and charged by the board of the WSES to perform a systematic review of the available literature and to provide evidence-based statements with immediate practical application. All the statements were presented and discussed during the 5th WSES Congress, and for each statement, a consensus among the WSES panel of experts was reached. Conclusions:The population considered in these guidelines is adult patients with suspected complicated peptic ulcer disease. These guidelines present evidence-based international consensus statements on the management of complicated peptic ulcer from a collaboration of a panel of experts and are intended to improve the knowledge and the awareness of physicians around the world on this specific topic. We divided our work into the two main topics, bleeding and perforated peptic ulcer, and structured it into six main topics that cover the entire management process of patients with complicated peptic ulcer, from diagnosis at ED arrival to post-discharge antimicrobial therapy, to provide an up-to-date, easy-to-use tool that can help physicians and surgeons during the decision-making process.
| S-EPMC6947898 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:As the U.S. population ages and the number of emergent surgical repairs for perforated peptic ulcer disease (PUD) rise, contemporary national data evaluating operative outcomes for open surgical repair for perforated PUD among the elderly are lacking. MATERIALS AND METHODS:The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2007-2014) was queried for patients ?65 y who underwent open surgical repair for perforated PUD. The primary outcome was 30-d mortality. Secondary outcomes included 30-d postoperative complications. Univariate and multivariable regression analyses were performed. RESULTS:Overall, 2131 patients underwent open surgical repair for perforated PUD. Among those who died, more used steroids preoperatively (15% versus 9%, P = 0.001) and fewer were independent preoperatively (55% versus 83%, P < 0.0001) compared to those who were alive 30-d postoperatively. Common postoperative complications were septic shock (15%) and pneumonia (12%). The overall 30-d mortality rate was 17.7%, with more deaths in subsequent decades of life (65-75 y 13% versus 75-84 y 18% versus >85 y 24%, P < 0.0001). After adjustment for other factors, mortality was significantly associated with older age (85+ versus 65-74 y) (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8, 1.7), dependent functional status preoperatively ([OR], 0.2; 95% CI, 0.2, 0.3), and American Society of Anesthesiologist classification ?4 (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.4, 4.3). CONCLUSIONS:At U.S. hospitals, open surgical repair, the accepted treatment of perforated PUD, among the elderly is associated with significant 30-d morbidity and mortality rates that are unacceptably high in our contemporary era. Furthermore, mortality rates are associated with older age. Therefore, as the elderly population continues to increase in the United States, preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative measures must be taken to reduce this high morbidity and mortality rates.
| S-EPMC6889865 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWith dwindling rates of postoperative mortality in perforated peptic ulcer that is attributable to H2-receptor blocker usage, there is a need to shift the focus towards the prevention of postoperative morbidity. Further, the simultaneous contribution of several putative clinical predictors to this postoperative morbidity is not fully appreciated. Our objective was to assess the predictors of the risk, rate and number of postoperative complications in surgically treated patients of perforated peptic ulcer.MethodsIn a prospective cohort study of 96 subjects presenting as perforated peptic ulcer and treated using Graham's omentoplatsy patch or gastrojejunostomy (with total truncal vagotomy), we assessed the association of clinical predictors with three domains of postoperative complications: the risk of developing a complication, the rate of developing the first complication and the risk of developing higher number of complications. We used multiple regression methods - logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards regression and Poisson regression, respectively - to examine the association of the predictors with these three domains.ResultsWe observed that the risk of developing a postoperative complication was significantly influenced by the presence of a concomitant medical illness [odds ratio (OR) = 8.9, p = 0.001], abdominal distension (3.8, 0.048) and a need of blood transfusion (OR = 8.2, p = 0.027). Using Poisson regression, it was observed that the risk for a higher number of complications was influenced by the same three factors [relative risk (RR) = 2.6, p = 0.015; RR = 4.6, p < 0.001; and RR = 2.4, p = 0.002; respectively]. However, the rate of development of complications was influenced by a history suggestive of shock [relative hazards (RH) = 3.4, p = 0.002] and A- blood group (RH = 4.7, p = 0.04).ConclusionAbdominal distension, presence of a concomitant medical illness and a history suggestive of shock at the time of admission warrant a closer and alacritous postoperative management in patients of perforated peptic ulcer.
| S-EPMC1544354 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite availability of effective therapies, peptic ulcer disease (PUD) remains a major global disease, resulting from a combination of persistent Helicobacter pylori infection and widespread use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Albeit endoscopy definitely represents the mainstay diagnostic technique, patients presenting to emergency departments with unexplained abdominal pain generally undergo multidetector CT as an initial investigation. Although superficial ulcers generally remain inconspicuous, careful multiplanar CT interpretation may allow to detect deep ulcers, secondary mural and extraluminal signs of peptic gastroduodenitis, thereby allowing timely endoscopic verification and appropriate treatment. This pictorial essay aims to provide radiologists with an increased familiarity with CT diagnosis of non-perforated PUD, with emphasis on differential diagnosis. Following an overview of current disease epidemiology and complications, it explains the appropriate CT acquisition and interpretation techniques, and reviews with several examples the cross-sectional findings of uncomplicated PUD. Afterwards, the CT features of PUD complications such as ulcer haemorrhage, gastric outlet obstruction, biliary and pancreatic fistulisation are presented.• Gastric and duodenal peptic ulcers are increasingly caused by nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs • Multiplanar CT interpretation allows detecting deep ulcers and secondary signs of gastroduodenitis • CT diagnosis of uncomplicated peptic disease relies on direct and indirect signs • Currently the commonest complication, haemorrhage may be treated with transarterial embolisation • Other uncommon complications include gastric outlet obstruction and biliopancreatic fistulisation.
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Project description:BackgroundPerforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with serious health and economic outcomes. However, few studies have estimated the incidence and health outcomes of PPU using a nationally representative sample in Asia. We estimated age- and sex-specific incidence and short-term mortality from PPU among Koreans and investigated the risk factors for mortality associated with PPU development.MethodsA retrospective population-based study was conducted from 2006 through 2007 using the Korean National Health Insurance claims database. A diagnostic algorithm was derived and validated to identify PPU patients, and PPU incidence rates and 30-day mortality rates were determined.ResultsFrom 2006 through 2007, the PPU incidence rate per 100 000 population was 4.4; incidence among men (7.53) was approximately 6 times that among women (1.24). Incidence significantly increased with advanced age, especially among women older than 50 years. Among 4258 PPU patients, 135 (3.15%) died within 30 days of the PPU event. The 30-day mortality rate increased with advanced age and reached almost 20% for patients older than 80 years. The 30-day mortality rate was 10% for women and 2% for men. Older age, being female, and higher comorbidity were independently associated with 30-day mortality rate among PPU patients in Korea.ConclusionsSpecial attention should be paid to elderly women with high comorbidity who develop PPU.
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Project description:Laparoscopic repair (LR) for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) has been introduced since 1990. Although many studies comparing LR with open repair (OR) have been published, controversy remains regarding the clinical utility of laparoscopic techniques for the treatment of PPU. Thus, it is necessary for us to broaden our knowledge on this subject with the newly published articles. Twenty-four nonrandomized controlled studies (NRS) and five randomized controlled trails (RCTs) were included in our meta-analyses, which comprised 5,268 patients (1,890 in the LR group and 3,378 in the OR group). In the analysis of high quality NRS and RCTs, compared with OR, high quality evidence suggested that LR was associated with a lower incidence of overall postoperative complications; moderate evidence showed that the two procedures had the similar reoperation rate; based on the low quality evidence, LR had reduced hospital mortality and similar operative time; Moreover, LR was observed having the advantages of earlier resumption of oral intake, shorter hospital stay and less analgesic use, which were supported by very low evidence. All the evidences suggest that LR is better than OR for PPU, but more high-quality RCTs are still needed for further validation.
| S-EPMC4563564 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background. Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) use are considered the main risk to develop peptic ulcer disease (PUD). However, PUD also occurs in the absence of HP infection and/or NSAID use. Recently, we have found evidence that Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) reactivation increases the risk to develop premalignant and malignant gastric lesions. Objective. To study a possible association between EBV and PUD. Methods. Antibodies against an EBV reactivation antigen, HP, and the HP virulence factor CagA were measured in sera from 207 Mexican subjects, controls (healthy individuals, n = 129), and PUD patients (n = 78, 58 duodenal and 20 gastric ulcers). Statistical associations were estimated. Results. Duodenal PUD was significantly associated with high anti-EBV IgG titers (p = 0.022, OR = 2.5), while anti-EBV IgA was positively associated with gastric PUD (p = 0.002, OR = 10.1). Conclusions. Our study suggests that EBV reactivation in gastric and duodenal epithelium increases the risk to develop PUD.
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Project description:AbstractAlthough gastrointestinal diseases are reported at various times throughout the year, some particular seasons are associated with a higher incidence of these diseases. This study aimed to identify the seasonal variations of peptic ulcer (PU), peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB), and acute pancreatitis (AP) in South Korea.We conducted a retrospective, observational cohort study of all subjects aged >18 years between 2012 and 2016 using the Health Insurance Review and Assessment-National Patient Samples database, previously converted to the standardized Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership-Common Data Model. We assessed the overall seasonal variations of PU, PUB, and AP and further analyzed seasonal variations according to age and sex subgroups.In total, 14,626 patients with PU, 3575 with PUB, and 9023 with AP were analyzed for 5 years. A clear seasonal variation was noted in PU, with the highest incidence rate during winter, the second highest during spring, the third highest during summer, and the lowest incidence during autumn for 5 years (P < .001). PUB also showed significant seasonal fluctuations, with winter peak for 4 years, except 1 year, which had a spring peak (P < .001). However, AP showed no clear seasonal variations (P = .090). No significant differences in the seasonal variation of PU, PUB, and AP were observed according to sex and age subgroups (<60 years vs ≥60 years).Seasonal variation of PU and PUB should be considered when determining allocation of available health care resources.
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