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Estimating risks for variants of unknown significance according to their predicted pathogenicity classes with application to BRCA1.

ABSTRACT: Sequence-based testing of disease-susceptibility genes has identified many variants of unknown significance (VUSs) whose pathogenicity is unknown at the time of their measurement. Female breast cancer cases aged 20-49 years at diagnosis and who have VUSs in BRCA1 and no mutations in BRCA2 have previously been identified through the population-based Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program. These nominal BRCA1 VUSs have been classified as "low," "medium," and "high" risk by four classification methods: Align-GVGD, Polyphen, Grantham matrix scores, and sequence conservation in mammalian species. Average hazard ratios (HRs) for classes of variants, i.e., the age-specific incidences of cancer for carriers of such variants divided by the population incidences, were estimated from the cancer family histories of first- and second-degree relatives of the index cases using modified segregation analysis. The study sample comprised 270 index cases and 4,543 of their relatives. There was weak evidence that the risk of breast cancer increases with the degree of sequence conservation (P = 0.03) and that missense variants at highly conserved sites are associated with a 5.6-fold (95 % confidence interval 1.4-22.2; P = 0.05) increased incidence of breast cancer. An upper bound of 2.3 is given for the average breast cancer HRs corresponding to variants classified as "low risk" by any of the four VUS classification methods. In summary, we have given a method to estimate cancer risks for groups of VUSs by combining existing classification methods with traditional penetrance analyses. This analysis suggests that classification methods for BRCA1 variants based on sequence conservation might be useful in a clinical setting. We have shown in principle that our method can be used to classify VUSs into clinically useful risk categories, but our specific findings should not be put into clinical practice unless confirmed by larger studies.

SUBMITTER: Dowty JG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4059774 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating risks for variants of unknown significance according to their predicted pathogenicity classes with application to BRCA1.

Dowty J G JG Lee E E McKean-Cowdin R R Henderson B E BE Bernstein L L Ursin G G Hopper J L JL

Breast cancer research and treatment 20140131 1

Sequence-based testing of disease-susceptibility genes has identified many variants of unknown significance (VUSs) whose pathogenicity is unknown at the time of their measurement. Female breast cancer cases aged 20-49 years at diagnosis and who have VUSs in BRCA1 and no mutations in BRCA2 have previously been identified through the population-based Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program. These nominal BRCA1 VUSs have been classified as "low," "medium," and "high" risk by four classificat ...[more]

PMID: 24481681

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Project description:Malignant hyperthermia (MH) is a pharmacogenetic disorder of skeletal muscle metabolism characterized by generalized muscle rigidity, increased body temperature, rhabdomyolysis, hyperkalemia and severe metabolic acidosis. The underlying mechanism of MH involves excessive Ca2+ release from myotubes via the ryanodine receptor type 1 (RYR1) and the voltage-dependent L-type calcium channel (CACNA1S). As more than 300 variants of unknown significance have been detected to date, we examined whether freely available pathogenicity prediction tools are able to detect relevant MH causing variants. In this diagnostic accuracy study, blood samples from 235 individuals with a history of a clinical malignant hyperthermia or their close relatives were genetically screened for RYR1 variants of all 106 RYR1 exons and additionally for known variants of CACNA1S. In vitro contracture tests were conducted on muscle biopsies obtained from all individuals, independently of whether a pathogenic variant, a variant of unknown significance or no variant was detected. Comparisons were made to three established bioinformatic pathogenicity detection tools to identify the clinical impact of the variants of unknown significance. All detected genetic variants were tested for pathogenicity by three in silico approaches and compared to the in vitro contracture test. Sensitivity and specificity of exon screening of all individuals listed in our MH database was analyzed. Exon screening identified 97 (41%) of the 235 individuals as carriers of pathogenic variants. Variants of unknown significance were detected in 21 individuals. Variants of unknown significance were subdivided into 19 malignant-hyperthermia-susceptible individuals and 2 non-malignant-hyperthermia-susceptible individuals. All pathogenic variants as well as the malignant-hyperthermia-suspectible variants were correctly identified by the bioinformatic prediction tools. Sensitivity of in silico approaches ranged between 0.71 and 0.98 (Polyphen 0.94 [CI 95% 0.75; 0.99]; Sift 0.98 [CI 95% 0.81; 0.99]; MutationTaster 0.92 [CI 95% 0.75; 0.99]). Specificity differed depending on the used tool (Polphen 0.98 [CI 95% 0.32; 0.99]; Sift 0.98 [CI 95% 0.32; 0.99]; MutationTaster 0.00 [CI 95% 0.00; 0.60]). All pathogenic variants and variants of unknown significance were scored as probably damaging in individuals, demonstrating a high sensitivity. Specificity was very low in one of the three tested programs. However, due to potential genotype-phenotype discordance, bioinformatic prediction tools are currently of limited value in diagnosing pathogenicity of MH-susceptible variants.

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Dataset Information

Estimating risks for variants of unknown significance according to their predicted pathogenicity classes with application to BRCA1.

Publications

Estimating risks for variants of unknown significance according to their predicted pathogenicity classes with application to BRCA1.

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