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Framingham score and LV mass predict events in young adults: CARDIA study.

ABSTRACT: Framingham risk score (FRS) underestimates risk in young adults. Left ventricular mass (LVM) relates to cardiovascular disease (CVD), with unclear value in youth. In a young biracial cohort, we investigate how FRS predicts CVD over 20 years and the incremental value of LVM. We also explore the predictive ability of different cut-points for hypertrophy.We assessed FRS and echocardiography-derived LVM (indexed by body surface area or height2.7) from 3980 African-American and white Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) participants (1990-1991); and followed over 20 years for a combined endpoint: cardiovascular death; nonfatal myocardial infarction, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral artery disease. We assessed the predictive ability of FRS for CVD and also calibration, discrimination, and net reclassification improvement for adding LVM to FRS.Mean age was 30±4 years, 46% males, and 52% white. Event incidence (n=118) across FRS groups was, respectively, 1.3%, 5.4%, and 23.1% (p<0.001); and was 1.4%, 1.3%, 3.7%, and 5.4% (p<0.001) across quartiles of LVM (cut-points 117 g, 144 g, and 176 g). LVM predicted CVD independently of FRS, with the best performance in normal weight participants. Adding LVM to FRS modestly increased discrimination and had a statistically significant reclassification. The 85th percentile (?116 g/m2 for men; ?96 g/m2 for women) showed event prediction more robust than currently recommended cut-points for hypertrophy.In a biracial cohort of young adults, FRS and LVM are helpful independent predictors of CVD. LVM can modestly improve discrimination and reclassify participants beyond FRS. Currently recommended cut-points for hypertrophy may be too high for young adults.

SUBMITTER: Armstrong AC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4068332 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Framingham score and LV mass predict events in young adults: CARDIA study.

Armstrong Anderson C AC Jacobs David R DR Gidding Samuel S SS Colangelo Laura A LA Gjesdal Ola O Lewis Cora E CE Bibbins-Domingo Kirsten K Sidney Stephen S Schreiner Pamela J PJ Williams O D OD Goff David C DC Liu Kiang K Lima Joao A C JA

International journal of cardiology 20140116 2

<h4>Background</h4>Framingham risk score (FRS) underestimates risk in young adults. Left ventricular mass (LVM) relates to cardiovascular disease (CVD), with unclear value in youth. In a young biracial cohort, we investigate how FRS predicts CVD over 20 years and the incremental value of LVM. We also explore the predictive ability of different cut-points for hypertrophy.<h4>Methods</h4>We assessed FRS and echocardiography-derived LVM (indexed by body surface area or height2.7) from 3980 African- ...[more]

PMID: 24507735

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Project description:Background Diminished peak lung function in young adulthood is a risk factor for future chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The association between lung disease and cardiovascular disease later in life is well documented. Whether peak lung function measured in young adulthood is associated with risk of future cardiovascular events is unknown. Methods and Results CARDIA (The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study is a prospective, multicenter, community-based, longitudinal cohort study including 4761 participants aged 18 to 30 years with lung function testing we investigated the association between lung health in young adulthood and risk of subsequent cardiovascular events. We performed Cox proportional hazards regression to test the association between baseline and years 10 and 20 pulmonary function with incident cardiovascular events. Linear and logistic regression was performed to explore the associations of lung function with development of risk factors for cardiovascular disease as well as carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcified plaque. At baseline, mean age (± SD ) was 24.9±3.6 years. Baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 second (hazard ratio) per -10-unit decrement in percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.06-1.31 [ P=0.002]) and FVC per -10-unit decrement in percent predicted FVC (hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.06-1.33 [ P=0.003]) were associated with future cardiovascular events independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Baseline lung function was associated with heart failure and cerebrovascular events but not coronary artery disease events. Conclusions Lung function in young adulthood is independently associated with cardiovascular events into middle age. This association appears to be driven by heart failure and cerebrovascular events rather than coronary heart disease. Clinical Trial Registration URL : https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT 00005130.

Project description:Background The endogenous steroidal inhibitor of sodium-potassium-dependent adenosine triphosphate and natriuretic hormone, marinobufagenin, plays a physiological role in ionic homeostasis. Animal models suggest that elevated marinobufagenin adversely associates with cardiac and renal, structural and functional alterations. It remains uncertain whether marinobufagenin relates to the early stages of target organ damage development, especially in young adults without cardiovascular disease. We therefore explored whether elevated 24-hour urinary marinobufagenin excretion was related to indices of subclinical target organ damage in young healthy adults. Design This cross-sectional study included 711 participants from the African-PREDICT study (black 51%, men 42%, 24.8 ± 3.02 years). Methods We assessed cardiac geometry and function by two-dimensional echocardiography and pulse wave Doppler imaging. 24-Hour urinary marinobufagenin and sodium excretion were measured, and the estimated glomerular filtration rate determined. Results Across marinobufagenin excretion quartiles, left ventricular mass ( P < 0.001), end diastolic volume ( P < 0.001), stroke volume ( P = 0.004) and sodium excretion ( P < 0.001) were higher within the fourth compared with the first quartile. Partial regression analyses indicated that left ventricular mass ( r = 0.08, P = 0.043), end diastolic volume ( r = 0.10, P = 0.010) and stroke volume ( r = 0.09, P = 0.022) were positively related to marinobufagenin excretion. In multivariate-adjusted regression analysis, left ventricular mass associated positively with marinobufagenin excretion only in the highest marinobufagenin excretion quartile (adjusted R2 = 0.20; β = 0.15; P = 0.043). This relationship between left ventricular mass and marinobufagenin excretion was evident in women (adjusted R2 = 0.06; β = 0.127; P = 0.015) but not in men (adjusted R2 = 0.06; β = 0.007; P = 0.92). Conclusions Left ventricular mass positively and independently associates with marinobufagenin excretion in young healthy adults with excessively high marinobufagenin excretion. Women may be more sensitive to the effects of marinobufagenin on early structural cardiac changes.

Project description:Importance:Few tools exist for assessing the risk for early atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in young adults. Objective:To assess the performance of the Healthy Heart Score (HHS), a lifestyle-based tool that estimates ASCVD events in older adults, for ASCVD events occurring before 55 years of age. Design, Setting, and Participants:This prospective cohort study included 4893 US adults aged 18 to 30 years from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study. Participants underwent measurement of lifestyle factors from March 25, 1985, through June 7, 1986, and were followed up for a median of 27.1 years (interquartile range, 26.9-27.2 years). Data for this study were analyzed from February 24 through December 12, 2016. Exposures:The HHS includes age, smoking status, body mass index, alcohol intake, exercise, and a diet score composed of self-reported daily intake of cereal fiber, fruits and/or vegetables, nuts, sugar-sweetened beverages, and red and/or processed meats. The HHS in the CARDIA study was calculated using sex-specific equations produced by its derivation cohorts. Main Outcomes and Measures:The ability of the HHS to assess the 25-year risk for ASCVD (death from coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke) in the total sample, in race- and sex-specific subgroups, and in those with and without clinical ASCVD risk factors at baseline. Model discrimination was assessed with the Harrell C statistic; model calibration, with Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino statistics. Results:The study population of 4893 participants included 2205 men (45.1%) and 2688 women (54.9%) with a mean (SD) age at baseline of 24.8 (3.6) years; 2483 (50.7%) were black; and 427 (8.7%) had at least 1 clinical ASCVD risk factor (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, or diabetes types 1 and 2). Among these participants, 64 premature ASCVD events occurred in women and 99 in men. The HHS showed moderate discrimination for ASCVD risk assessment in this diverse population of mostly healthy young adults (C statistic, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.66-0.76); it performed better in men (C statistic, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.68-0.79) than in women (C statistic, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.62-0.75); in white (C statistic, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.71-0.84) than in black (C statistic, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.60-0.72) participants; and in those without (C statistic, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.66-0.76) vs with (C statistic, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.55-0.73) clinical risk factors at baseline. The HHS was adequately calibrated overall and within each subgroup. Conclusions and Relevance:The HHS, when measured in younger persons without ASCVD risk factors, performs moderately well in assessing risk for ASCVD events by early middle age. Its reliance on self-reported, modifiable lifestyle factors makes it an attractive tool for risk assessment and counseling for early ASCVD prevention.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Identifying potentially modifiable risk factors is critically important for reducing the burden of chronic kidney disease. We sought to examine the association of body mass index (BMI) with kidney function decline in a cohort of young adults with preserved glomerular filtration at baseline. STUDY DESIGN:Longitudinal cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS:2,839 black and white young adults with cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcys)>90mL/min/1.73m(2) taking part in the year-10 examination (in 1995-1996) of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study. PREDICTOR:BMI, categorized as 18.5-24.9 (reference), 25.0-29.9, 30.0-39.9, and ?40.0kg/m(2). OUTCOMES:Trajectory of kidney function decline, rapid decline (>3% per year), and incident eGFRcys <60mL/min/1.73m(2) over 10 years of follow-up. MEASUREMENTS:GFRcys estimated from the CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) equation for calibrated cystatin C at CARDIA years 10, 15, and 20. RESULTS:At year 10, participants had a mean age of 35.1 years, median eGFRcys of 114mL/min/1.73m(2), and 24.5% had BMI?30.0kg/m(2). After age 30 years, average eGFRcys was progressively lower with each increment in BMI after adjustment for baseline age, race, sex, hyperlipidemia, smoking status, and physical activity. Higher BMI category was associated with successively higher odds of rapid decline (for 25.0-29.9, 30.0-39.9, and ?40.0kg/m(2), adjusted ORs were 1.50 [95% CI, 1.21-1.87], 2.01 [95% CI, 1.57-2.87], and 2.57 [95% CI, 1.67-3.94], respectively). 18 participants (0.6%) had incident eGFRcys<60mL/min/1.73m(2). In unadjusted analysis, higher BMI category was associated with incident eGFRcys<60mL/min/1.73m(2) (for 25.0-29.9, 30.0-39.9, and ?40.0kg/m(2), ORs were 5.17 [95% CI, 1.10-25.38], 7.44 [95% CI, 1.54-35.95], and 5.55 [95% CI, 0.50-61.81], respectively); adjusted associations were no longer significant. LIMITATIONS:Inability to describe kidney function before differences by BMI category were already evident. Absence of data for measured GFR or GFR estimated from serum creatinine level. CONCLUSIONS:Higher BMI categories are associated with greater declines in kidney function in a cohort of young adults with preserved GFR at baseline. Clinicians should vigilantly monitor overweight and obese patients for evidence of early kidney function decline.

Project description:BACKGROUND & AIMS:Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is an epidemic. Identifying modifiable risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease development is essential to design effective prevention programmes. We tested whether 25-year patterns of body mass index change are associated with midlife non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. METHODS:In all, 4423 participants from Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults, a prospective population-based biracial cohort (age 18-30), underwent body mass index measurement at baseline (1985-1986) and 3 or more times over 25 years. At Year 25, 3115 had liver fat assessed by non-contrast computed tomography. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was defined as liver attenuation ?40 Hounsfield Units after exclusions. Latent mixture modelling identified 25-year trajectories in body mass index per cent change (%?) from baseline. RESULTS:We identified four distinct trajectories of BMI%?: stable (26.2% of cohort, 25-year BMI %? = 3.1%), moderate increase (46.0%, BMI%? = 21.7%), high increase (20.9%, BMI%? = 41.9%) and extreme increase (6.9%, BMI%? = 65.9%). Y25 non-alcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence was higher in groups with greater BMI %?: 4.1%, 9.3%, 13.0%, and 17.6%, respectively (P-trend <.0001). In multivariable analyses, participants with increasing BMI%? had increasingly greater odds of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease compared to the stable group: OR: 3.35 (95% CI: 2.07-5.42), 7.80 (4.60-13.23) and 12.68 (6.68-24.09) for moderate, high and extreme body mass index increase, respectively. Associations were only moderately attenuated when adjusted for baseline or Y25 body mass index. CONCLUSIONS:Trajectories of weight gain during young adulthood are associated with greater non-alcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence in midlife independent of metabolic covariates and baseline or concurrent body mass index highlighting the importance of weight maintenance throughout adulthood as a target for primary non-alcoholic fatty liver disease prevention.

Project description:Prediction models to identify healthy individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease have limited accuracy. A low ankle brachial index (ABI) is an indicator of atherosclerosis and has the potential to improve prediction.To determine if the ABI provides information on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality independently of the Framingham risk score (FRS) and can improve risk prediction.Relevant studies were identified. A search of MEDLINE (1950 to February 2008) and EMBASE (1980 to February 2008) was conducted using common text words for the term ankle brachial index combined with text words and Medical Subject Headings to capture prospective cohort designs. Review of reference lists and conference proceedings, and correspondence with experts was conducted to identify additional published and unpublished studies.Studies were included if participants were derived from a general population, ABI was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up to detect total and cardiovascular mortality.Prespecified data on individuals in each selected study were extracted into a combined data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted on individuals who had no previous history of coronary heart disease.Sixteen population cohort studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included. During 480,325 person-years of follow-up of 24,955 men and 23,339 women, the risk of death by ABI had a reverse J-shaped distribution with a normal (low risk) ABI of 1.11 to 1.40. The 10-year cardiovascular mortality in men with a low ABI (< or = 0.90) was 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.3%-24.1%) and with normal ABI (1.11-1.40) was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.7%) (hazard ratio [HR], 4.2; 95% CI, 3.3-5.4). Corresponding mortalities in women were 12.6% (95% CI, 6.2%-19.0%) and 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2%-6.1%) (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.4-5.1). The HRs remained elevated after adjusting for FRS (2.9 [95% CI, 2.3-3.7] for men vs 3.0 [95% CI, 2.0-4.4] for women). A low ABI (< or = 0.90) was associated with approximately twice the 10-year total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and major coronary event rate compared with the overall rate in each FRS category. Inclusion of the ABI in cardiovascular risk stratification using the FRS would result in reclassification of the risk category and modification of treatment recommendations in approximately 19% of men and 36% of women.Measurement of the ABI may improve the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the FRS.

Dataset Information

Framingham score and LV mass predict events in young adults: CARDIA study.

Publications

Framingham score and LV mass predict events in young adults: CARDIA study.

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