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Validation of methods to control for immortal time bias in a pharmacoepidemiologic analysis of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors in type 2 diabetes.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Pharmacoepidemiologic analysis can confirm whether drug efficacy in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) translates to effectiveness in real settings. We examined methods used to control for immortal time bias in an analysis of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors as the reference cardioprotective drug. METHODS:We analyzed data from 3928 patients with type 2 diabetes who were recruited into the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry between 1996 and 2005 and followed up to July 30, 2005. Different Cox models were used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with RAS inhibitors. These HRs were then compared to the HR of 0.92 reported in a recent meta-analysis of RCTs. RESULTS:During a median follow-up period of 5.45 years, 7.23% (n = 284) patients developed CVD and 38.7% (n = 1519) were started on RAS inhibitors, with 39.1% of immortal time among the users. In multivariable analysis, time-dependent drug-exposure Cox models and Cox models that moved immortal time from users to nonusers both severely inflated the HR, and time-fixed models that included immortal time deflated the HR. Use of time-fixed Cox models that excluded immortal time resulted in a HR of only 0.89 (95% CI, 0.68-1.17) for CVD associated with RAS inhibitors, which is closer to the values reported in RCTs. CONCLUSIONS:In pharmacoepidemiologic analysis, time-dependent drug exposure models and models that move immortal time from users to nonusers may introduce substantial bias in investigations of the effects of RAS inhibitors on CVD in type 2 diabetes.

SUBMITTER: Yang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4074630 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validation of methods to control for immortal time bias in a pharmacoepidemiologic analysis of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors in type 2 diabetes.

Yang Xilin X Kong Alice Ps AP Luk Andrea Oy AO Ozaki Risa R Ko Gary Tc GT Ma Ronald Cw RC Chan Juliana Cn JC So Wing Yee WY

Journal of epidemiology 20140419 4

<h4>Background</h4>Pharmacoepidemiologic analysis can confirm whether drug efficacy in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) translates to effectiveness in real settings. We examined methods used to control for immortal time bias in an analysis of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors as the reference cardioprotective drug.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed data from 3928 patients with type 2 diabetes who were recruited into the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry between 1996 and 2005 and followed up to Jul ...[more]

PMID: 24747198

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Project description:BackgroundRenin inhibitors (RIs) reduce blood pressure more than placebo, with the magnitude of this effect thought to be similar to that for angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors. However, a drug's efficacy in lowering blood pressure cannot be considered as a definitive indicator of its effectiveness in reducing mortality and morbidity. The effectiveness and safety of RIs compared to ACE inhibitors in treating hypertension is unknown.ObjectivesTo evaluate the benefits and harms of renin inhibitors compared to ACE inhibitors in people with primary hypertension.Search methodsThe Cochrane Hypertension Group Information Specialist searched the following databases for randomized controlled trials up to August 2020: the Cochrane Hypertension Specialized Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (from 1946), Embase (from 1974), the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and ClinicalTrials.gov. We also contacted authors of relevant papers about further published and unpublished work. The searches had no language restrictions.Selection criteriaWe included randomized, active-controlled, double-blinded studies (RCTs) with at least four weeks follow-up in people with primary hypertension, which compared renin inhibitors with ACE inhibitors and reported morbidity, mortality, adverse events or blood pressure outcomes. We excluded people with proven secondary hypertension.Data collection and analysisTwo review authors independently selected the included trials, evaluated the risks of bias and entered the data for analysis.Main resultsWe include 11 RCTs involving 13,627 participants, with a mean baseline age from 51.5 to 74.2 years. Follow-up duration ranged from four weeks to 36.6 months. There was no difference between RIs and ACE inhibitors for the outcomes: all-cause mortality: risk ratio (RR) 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93 to 1.18; 5 RCTs, 5962 participants; low-certainty evidence; total myocardial infarction: RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.22 to 3.39; 2 RCTs, 957 participants; very low-certainty evidence; adverse events: RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.03; 10 RTCs, 6007 participants; moderate-certainty evidence; serious adverse events: RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.64; 10 RTCs, 6007 participants; low-certainty evidence; and withdrawal due to adverse effects: RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.06; 10 RTCs, 6008 participants; low-certainty evidence. No data were available for total cardiovascular events, heart failure, stroke, end-stage renal disease or change in heart rate. Low-certainty evidence suggested that RIs reduced systolic blood pressure: mean difference (MD) -1.72, 95% CI -2.47 to -0.97; 9 RCTs, 5001 participants; and diastolic blood pressure: MD -1.18, 95% CI -1.65 to -0.72; 9 RCTs, 5001 participants, to a greater extent than ACE inhibitors, but we judged this to be more likely due to bias than a true effect. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: For the treatment of hypertension, we have low certainty that renin inhibitors (RI) and angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors do not differ for all-cause mortality and myocardial infarction. We have low to moderate certainty that they do not differ for adverse events. Small reductions in blood pressure with renin inhibitors compared to ACE inhibitors are of low certainty. More independent, large, long-term trials are needed to compare RIs with ACE inhibitors, particularly assessing morbidity and mortality outcomes, but also on blood pressure-lowering effect.

Project description:AIMS:To describe the characteristics of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (including their long-term at-home medication use), and compare them with regard to the course of the disease. To assess the association between renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASIs) and disease progression and critical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS:All consecutive hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in a university hospital in Amiens (France) were included in this study. The primary composite endpoint was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) or death before ICU admission. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with the composite endpoint. Between 28 February 2020 and 30 March 2020, a total of 499 local patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of these, 231 were not hospitalized {males 33%; median [interquartile range (IQR)] age: 44 (32-54)}, and 268 were hospitalized [males 58%; median (IQR) age: 73 (61-84)]. A total of 116 patients met the primary endpoint: 47 died before ICU admission, and 69 were admitted to the ICU. Patients meeting the primary endpoint were more likely than patients not meeting the primary endpoint to have coronary heart disease and to have been taking RASIs; however, the two subsets of patients did not differ with regard to median age. After adjustment for other associated variables, the risk of meeting the composite endpoint was 1.73 times higher (odds ratio 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.02-2.93) in patients treated at baseline with a RASI than in patients not treated with this drug class. This association was confirmed when the analysis was restricted to patients treated with antihypertensive agents. CONCLUSIONS:We highlighted a potential safety signal for RASIs, the long-term use of which was independently associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19 and a poor outcome. Due to the widespread use of this important drug class, formal proof based on clinical trials is needed to better understand the association between RASIs and complications of COVID-19.

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Validation of methods to control for immortal time bias in a pharmacoepidemiologic analysis of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors in type 2 diabetes.

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Validation of methods to control for immortal time bias in a pharmacoepidemiologic analysis of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors in type 2 diabetes.

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