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A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts.

ABSTRACT: To develop a clinical eye-specific prediction model for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD).The Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) cohort followed up for 8 years served as the training dataset, and the Blue Mountains Eye Study (BMES) cohort followed up for 10 years served as the validation dataset.A total of 4507 AREDS participants (contributing 1185 affected vs. 6992 unaffected eyes) and 2169 BMES participants (contributing 69 affected vs. 3694 unaffected eyes).Using Bayes' theorem in a logistic model, we used 8 baseline predictors-age, sex, education level, race, smoking status, and presence of pigment abnormality, soft drusen, and maximum drusen size-to devise and validate a macular risk scoring system (MRSS). We assessed the performance of the MRSS by calculating sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (i.e., c-index).Advanced AMD.The internally validated c-indexAREDS (0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.89) and the externally validated c-indexBMES (0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.88-0.95) suggested excellent performance of the MRSS. The sensitivity and specificity at the optimal macular risk score cutoff point of 0 were 87.6% and 73.6%, respectively. An application for the iPhone and iPad also was developed as a practical tool for the MRSS.The MRSS was developed and validated to provide satisfactory accuracy and generalizability. It may be used to screen patients at risk of developing advanced AMD.

SUBMITTER: Chiu CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4082761 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts.

Chiu Chung-Jung CJ Mitchell Paul P Klein Ronald R Klein Barbara E BE Chang Min-Lee ML Gensler Gary G Taylor Allen A

Ophthalmology 20140318 7

<h4>Purpose</h4>To develop a clinical eye-specific prediction model for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD).<h4>Design</h4>The Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) cohort followed up for 8 years served as the training dataset, and the Blue Mountains Eye Study (BMES) cohort followed up for 10 years served as the validation dataset.<h4>Participants</h4>A total of 4507 AREDS participants (contributing 1185 affected vs. 6992 unaffected eyes) and 2169 BMES participants (contributing 69 a ...[more]

PMID: 24650555

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Project description:ImportanceRisk score models predicting the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) to its advanced forms may be useful for targeting high-risk individuals for lifestyle changes that reduce risk for AMD progression, helping with differential diagnosis of AMD and its subtypes, identifying high-risk subjects for participation in clinical trials, and selecting appropriate therapies.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a predictive model for progression to advanced stages of AMD in 2 independent cohorts. DESIGN Participants in a validation cohort and an independent derivation population were classified into 5 stages of AMD based on ocular examination and fundus photographs at baseline. Progression was defined as either eye progressing from stage 1, 2, or 3 to either stage 4 or stage 5 at any follow-up visit to the end of the study. Cox proportional hazards models were used for progression analyses. Covariates included demographic and environmental factors, 6 variants in 5 genes, and baseline AMD grades in both eyes. The algorithm developed with the derivation sample was assessed for calibration and discrimination in the validation data set.SettingClinic populations and referrals.ParticipantsThe derivation population comprised 2914 subjects with 809 progressors. The independent validation cohort comprised 980 individuals with no, early, or intermediate AMD in at least one eye at baseline, of whom 294 progressed to advanced stages of geographic atrophy or neovascular disease.Main outcome measureProgression to advanced AMD. RESULTS For the model with all nongenetic and genetic factors, the respective C statistics for progression to advanced AMD in the derivation and validation samples were 0.858 and 0.750 at 5 years and 0.884 and 0.809 at 10 years, and models also discriminated risk for progression to geographic atrophy and neovascular disease separately. For unilateral or bilateral intermediate AMD, 5-year cumulative incidence rates of progression to advanced AMD were 10% with the low-risk score and 50% with the high-risk score; for unilateral advanced disease, the progression rates were 22% and 80% for the fellow eye.Conclusions and relevanceThe risk prediction model was validated in an independent study of progression from no, early, or intermediate stages to advanced subtypes of AMD and will be useful for research, clinical trials, and personalized medicine.

Project description:ImportanceRecent reports suggest that cilioretinal arteries (CRAs) confer protection against developing advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD).ObjectiveTo further characterize the association between the presence of a CRA and incidence of geographic atrophy (GA) or choroidal neovascularization (CNV).DesignThis cohort study constituted an ad hoc secondary analysis of data from the Comparison of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Treatments Trials (CATT) and was performed at 44 clinical centers in the United States among participants in CATT with CNV in the study eye and without advanced AMD in the fellow eye at baseline. The presence of a CRA was determined by 2 graders, masked to clinical data, using color fundus photographs, red-free fundus photographs, and fluorescein angiography. The proportion with CRAs at baseline between the study eye with CNV and fellow eye without CNV was first compared. The association of a CRA with incidence of CNV or GA at 5 years among fellow eyes and with incidence of GA among study (treated) eyes was then assessed. In addition, the association of CRAs with the Age-Related Eye Disease Study severity scale among the fellow eyes at baseline was assessed. Data were collected from February 1, 2008, through April 30, 2015, and analyzed from July 1, 2018, through April 30, 2019.ExposuresPresence of a CRA.Main outcomes and measuresThe association between the presence of a CRA and incidence of CNV or GA at 5 years of follow-up.ResultsA total of 350 patients (700 eyes) (230 [65.7% women; mean [SD] age, 77 [7.2] years) were included in the analysis. Cilioretinal arteries were present in 67 of 345 (19.4%) fellow eyes without baseline CNV and 73 of 349 (20.9%) study eyes with baseline CNV (P = .60). Cilioretinal arteries in fellow eyes were not associated with incidence of CNV at 5 years (125 of 278 [45.0%] among eyes without CRAs and 30 of 67 [44.8%] among eyes with CRAs; P = .99) or with incidence of GA at 5 years (110 of 278 [39.6%] among eyes without CRAs and 25 of 67 [37.3%] among eyes with CRAs; P = .89). Cilioretinal arteries in study eyes were not associated with incidence of GA at 5 years (105 of 276 [38.0%] study eyes without CRAs and 26 of 73 [35.6%] study eyes with CRAs; P = .72).Conclusions and relevanceThe analysis did not find a protective association between CRAs and incidence of CNV or GA among CATT participants who had unilateral exudative AMD. Why these findings were different from those of previous publications is unclear but may be partially explained by the different techniques used to detect CRAs or by the baseline advanced disease in CATT participants.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00593450.

Dataset Information

A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts.

Publications

A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts.

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