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Predictors of pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes in South Korea: a prospective cohort study, 2005-2012.

ABSTRACT: Tuberculosis remains an important health concern in many countries. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of unfavorable outcomes at the end of treatment (EOT) and at the end of study (EOS; 40 months after EOT) in South Korea.New or previously treated tuberculosis patients were recruited into a prospective observational cohort study at two hospitals in South Korea. To identify predictors of unfavorable outcomes at EOT and EOS, logistic regression analysis was performed.The proportion of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) was 8.2% in new cases and 57.9% in previously treated cases. Of new cases, 68.6% were cured, as were 40.7% of previously treated cases. At EOT, diabetes, ?3 previous TB episodes, ?1 significant regimen change, and MDR-TB were significantly associated with treatment failure or death. At EOS, age ?35, body-mass index (BMI) <18.5, diabetes, and MDR-TB were significantly associated with treatment failure, death, or relapse. Among cases that were cured at EOT, age ?50 and a BMI <18.5 were associated with subsequent death or relapse during follow-up to EOS. Treatment interruption was associated with service sector employees or laborers, bilateral lesions on chest X-ray, and previous treatment failure or treatment interruption history.Risk factors for poor treatment outcomes at EOT and EOS include both patient factors (diabetes status, age, BMI) and disease factors (history of multiple previous treatment episodes, MDR-TB). In this longitudinal, observational cohort study, diabetes mellitus and MDR-TB were risk factors for poor treatment outcomes and relapse. Measures to help ensure that the first tuberculosis treatment episode is also the last one may improve treatment outcomes.ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT00341601.

SUBMITTER: Choi H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4094632 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) clinical prediction rules rely on presence of symptoms, however many undiagnosed cases in the community are asymptomatic. This study aimed to explore the utility of clinical factors in predicting TB among people with HIV not seeking care.MethodsBaseline data were analysed from an observational cohort of ambulant adults with HIV in South Africa. Participants were tested for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) sensitisation (interferon-γ release assay, IGRA) and microbiologically-confirmed prevalent pulmonary TB disease at baseline, and actively surveilled for incident TB through 15 months. Multivariable LASSO regression with post-selection inference was used to test associations with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease.FindingsBetween March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 861 participants were enrolled; Among 851 participants included in the analysis, 94·5% were asymptomatic and 45·9% sensitised to Mtb. TB prevalence was 2·0% at baseline and incidence 2·3/100 person-years through 15 months follow-up. Study site was associated with baseline Mtb sensitisation (p < 0·001), prevalent (p < 0·001), and incident TB disease (p = 0·037). Independent of site, higher CD4 counts (per 50 cells/mm3, aOR 1·48, 95%CI 1·12-1·77, p = 0·006) were associated with increased IGRA positivity, and participants without TB disease (aOR 0·80, 95%CI 0·69-0·94, p = 0·006) had reduced IGRA positivity; no variables were independently associated with prevalent TB. Mixed ancestry (aHR 1·49, 95%CI 1·30->1000, p = 0·005) and antiretroviral initiation (aHR 1·48, 95%CI 1·01-929·93, p = 0·023) were independently associated with incident TB. Models incorporating clinical features alone performed poorly in diagnosing prevalent (AUC 0·65, 95%CI 0·44-0·85) or predicting progression to incident (0·67, 0·46-0·88) TB.InterpretationCD4 count and antiretroviral initiation, proxies for immune status and HIV stage, were associated with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease. Inadequate performance of clinical prediction models may reflect predominantly subclinical disease diagnosed in this setting and unmeasured local site factors affecting transmission and progression.FundingThe CORTIS-HR study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1151915) and by the Strategic Health Innovation Partnerships Unit of the South African Medical Research Council with funds received from the South African Department of Science and Technology. The regulatory sponsor was the University of Cape Town.

Project description:BackgroundTimely pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis is a global health priority for interrupting transmission and optimizing treatment outcomes. The traditional dichotomous time-divided approach for addressing time delays in diagnosis has limited clinical application because the time delay significantly varies depending on each community in question.ObjectiveWe aimed to reevaluate the diagnosis time delay based on the PTB disease spectrum using a novel scoring system that was applied at the national level in the Republic of Korea.MethodsThe Pulmonary Tuberculosis Spectrum Score (PTBSS) was developed based on previously published proposals related to the disease spectrum, and its validity was assessed by examining both all-cause and PTB-related mortality. In our analysis, we integrated the PTBSS into the Korea Tuberculosis Cohort Registry. We evaluated various time delays, including patient, health care, and overall delays, and their system-associated variables in line with each PTBSS. Furthermore, we reclassified the scores into distinct categories of mild (PTBSS=0-1), moderate (PBTBSS=2-3), and severe (PBTBSS=4-6) using a multivariate regression approach.ResultsAmong the 14,031 Korean patients with active PTB whose data were analyzed from 2018 to 2020, 37% (n=5191), 38% (n=5328), and 25% (n=3512) were classified as having a mild, moderate, and severe disease status, respectively, according to the PTBSS. This classification can therefore reflect the disease spectrum of PTB by considering the correlation of the score with mortality. The time delay patterns differed according to the PTBSS. In health care delays according to the PTBSS, greater PTB disease progression was associated with a shorter diagnosis period, since the condition is microbiologically easy to diagnose. However, with respect to patient delays, the change in elapsed time showed a U-shaped pattern as PTB progressed. This means that a remarkable patient delay in the real-world setting might occur at both apical ends of the spectrum (ie, in both mild and severe cases of PTB). Independent risk factors for a severe PTB pattern were age (adjusted odds ratio 1.014) and male sex (adjusted odds ratio 1.422), whereas no significant risk factor was found for mild PTB.ConclusionsTimely PTB diagnosis should be accomplished. This can be improved with use of the PTBSS, a simple and intuitive scoring system, which can be more helpful in clinical and public health applications compared to the traditional dichotomous time-only approach.

Project description:ImportanceDespite posing a significant challenge to global tuberculosis (TB) elimination efforts, recurrent TB remains understudied due to the challenges of long-term observation.ObjectiveTo investigate the burden of recurrent TB using data from patients with pulmonary TB (PTB) in China.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study included all bacteriologically confirmed or clinically diagnosed PTB cases reported to the Tuberculosis Information Management System with completed or successful treatment outcomes from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2021. Data were analyzed from July 15, 2022, to October 28, 2023.ExposuresNewly diagnosed PTB was classified into primary, hematogenous disseminated, or secondary PTB.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was the annual recurrence rate, stratified by disease classification, over the 17-year observation period. The recurrence rate for year n was calculated by dividing the number of patients with recurrent TB in year n by observed person-years in year n. The secondary outcome was the annual proportion of recurrent TB among reported cases and associated risk factors.ResultsOf 13 833 249 patients with TB reported to the Tuberculosis Information Management System, 10 482 271 with PTB met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 68.9% were male, 22.3% were 65 years or older, 89.6% were of Han ethnicity, and 68.4% were agricultural workers. A total of 413 936 patients experienced a recurrent TB episode after successful treatment, resulting in an overall recurrence rate of 0.47 (95% CI, 0.47-0.48) per 100 person-years. The recurrence rate for patients with primary PTB was 0.24 (95% CI, 0.22-0.26) per 100 person-years; for hematogenous disseminated PTB, 0.37 (95% CI, 0.36-0.38) per 100 person-years; and for secondary PTB, 0.48 (95% CI, 0.47-0.48) per 100 person-years. The cumulative proportion of recurrences within the first 2 years accounted for 48.9% of all recurrent cases. The proportion of recurrent cases among notified incident cases increased 1.9-fold from 4.7% in 2015 to 8.8% in 2021. Among other factors, ages 45 to 64 years (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.77 [95% CI, 1.65-1.89]) and having completed treatment (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.14-1.18]) were identified as associated with recurrence.Conclusions and relevanceIn this retrospective cohort study, the PTB recurrence rate was substantially higher than the incidence, and the proportion of recurrent cases increased. Almost half of the recurrence occurred within the first 2 years, suggesting that routine posttreatment follow-up may represent an important strategy for accelerating TB elimination.

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Predictors of pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes in South Korea: a prospective cohort study, 2005-2012.

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