Regional precipitation variability in East Asia related to climate and environmental factors during 1979-2012.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Deng Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4102078 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual ?18O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the ?18O of precipitation (?18Op) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual ?18Op between 18O-enriched and 18O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.
| S-EPMC7334498 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3-4%?K-1 globally, 4-5%?K-1 over land and 2-4%?K-1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.
| S-EPMC5740108 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The lack of a precisely-dated, unequivocal climate proxy from northern China, where precipitation variability is traditionally considered as an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indicator, impedes our understanding of the behaviour and dynamics of the EASM. Here we present a well-dated, pollen-based, ~20-yr-resolution quantitative precipitation reconstruction (derived using a transfer function) from an alpine lake in North China, which provides for the first time a direct record of EASM evolution since 14.7 ka (ka = thousands of years before present, where the "present" is defined as the year AD 1950). Our record reveals a gradually intensifying monsoon from 14.7-7.0 ka, a maximum monsoon (30% higher precipitation than present) from ~7.8-5.3 ka, and a rapid decline since ~3.3 ka. These insolation-driven EASM trends were punctuated by two millennial-scale weakening events which occurred synchronously to the cold Younger Dryas and at ~9.5-8.5 ka, and by two centennial-scale intervals of enhanced (weakened) monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (Little Ice Age). Our precipitation reconstruction, consistent with temperature changes but quite different from the prevailing view of EASM evolution, points to strong internal feedback processes driving the EASM, and may aid our understanding of future monsoon behaviour under ongoing anthropogenic climate change.
| S-EPMC4471663 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Natural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at adaptation-relevant scales and projection horizons. The relations to chaos theory, including sensitivity to initial conditions, have caused the resulting variability in projections to be viewed as the irreducible uncertainty component of climate. The multiplier effect of ensembles from emissions-trajectories, multiple-models and initial-conditions contribute to the challenge. We show that ignoring this variability results in underestimation of precipitation extremes return periods leading to maladaptation. However, we show that concatenating initial-condition ensembles results in reduction of hydroclimate uncertainty. We show how this reduced uncertainty in precipitation extremes percolates to adaptation-relevant-Depth-Duration Frequency curves. Hence, generation of additional initial condition ensembles therefore no longer needs to be viewed as an uncertainty explosion problem but as a solution that can lead to uncertainty reduction in assessment of extremes.
| S-EPMC6591321 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate-conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic controls, we analyze the many geographical factors that have been shown to be important in understanding the distribution and causes of violence while also considering yearly and country fixed effects. For our main climate indicators at gridded 1° resolution (~100 km), wetter deviations from the precipitation norms decrease the risk of violence, whereas drier and normal periods show no effects. The relationship between temperature and conflict shows that much warmer than normal temperatures raise the risk of violence, whereas average and cooler temperatures have no effect. These precipitation and temperature effects are statistically significant but have modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors. Large variations in the climate-conflict relationships are evident between the nine countries of the study region and across time periods.
| S-EPMC3494887 | biostudies-other
Project description:Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a "highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring" pattern which switches to the "increase in autumn, decrease in spring" pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier" paradigm.
| S-EPMC5849753 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Southeast Asia (SEA) and East Asia with circulation of multiple serotypes and multiple genotypes within each serotype of the virus. Although countries like Japan and South Korea in the Far East were free of FMD, in 2010 FMD serotype O (O/Mya-98) outbreaks were recorded and since then South Korea has experienced several FMD outbreaks despite regular vaccination. In this study a total of 85 serotype O FMD viruses (FMDV) isolated from 2007 to 2012 from SEA, East Asia and Far East were characterized by virus neutralisation tests using antisera to four existing (O/HKN/6/83, O/IND/R2/75, O/SKR/2010 and O/PanAsia-2) and one putative (O/MYA/2009) vaccine strains, and by full capsid sequencing. Serological studies revealed broad cross-reactivity with the vaccine strains; O/PanAsia-2 exhibited a good match with 95.3%, O/HKN/6/83 with 91.8%, O/IND/R2/75 with 80%, and the putative strain O/MYA/2009 with 89.4% isolates employed in this study. Similarly O/PanAsia-2 and O/IND/R2/75 vaccines showed a good match with all eight viruses belonging to O-Ind-2001d sublineage whereas the vaccines of O/Mya-98 lineage, O/MYA/2009 and O/SKR/2010 exhibited the lowest match indicating their unsuitability to protect infections from O-Ind-2001d viruses. A Bayesian analysis of the capsid sequence data indicated these circulating viruses (n?=?85) to be of either SEA or Middle East-South Asian (ME-SA) topotype. The ME-SA topotype viruses were mainly detected in Lao PDR, Vietnam, Myanmar and Thailand reflecting the trade links with the Indian subcontinent, and also within the SEA countries. Implications of these results in the context of FMD control in SEA and East Asian countries are discussed.
| S-EPMC5720463 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.
| S-EPMC5351813 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Aim:With a perplexing pathogenesis and an incidence rate of approximately 10% among women of reproductive age, endometriosis affects more women in Asia than in any other continent in the world. This paper reviews the available data on the epidemiology and risk factors associated with endometriosis in East Asia. Methods:Included studies were published between January 2000 and December 2016. Articles were required to include East Asian patients with a diagnosis of endometriosis and to study epidemiology, such as the prevalence and/or incidence, associated with inherited, environmental, and/or lifestyle factors. A total of 65 candidate articles were retrieved and 22 were included in the final review. Results:Only one study provided an estimate of prevalence (6.8%). Short menstrual cycle, family history of endometriosis, and some genetic polymorphisms are associated with the risk of developing endometriosis. Smoking, lower body mass index, and lower parity associated with increased risk of endometriosis were suggested as modifiable factors. Limitations of this study include the poor quality of data identified, and the language barriers behind the study retrieval. Conclusions:Data on the epidemiology of endometriosis in the East Asian populations are limited. The available data that examine potential genetic factors do not unveil whether such factors directly contribute to the increased risk of endometriosis. Further extensive studies on endometriosis in Asian women are required to improve the management of this disease.
| S-EPMC6367920 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The cycle of precipitation change is key to understanding the driving mechanism of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). However, the dominant cycles of EASM precipitation revealed by different proxy indicators are inconsistent, leading to the "Chinese 100 kyr problem". In this study, we examine a high-resolution, approximately 350,000-year record from a low-latitude loess profile in China. Our analyses show that variations in the ratio of dithionite-citrate-bicarbonate extractable iron to total iron are dominated by the ~20-kyr cycle, reflecting changes in precipitation. In contrast, magnetic susceptibility varies with the ~100-kyr cycle and may be mainly controlled by temperature-induced redox processes or precipitation-induced signal smoothing. Our results suggest that changes in the EASM, as indicated by precipitation in this region, are mainly forced by precession-dominated insolation variations, and that precipitation and temperature may have varied with different cycles over the past ~350,000 years.
| S-EPMC10838313 | biostudies-literature