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Hierarchical multiple informants models: examining food environment contributions to the childhood obesity epidemic.

ABSTRACT: Methods for multiple informants help to estimate the marginal effect of each multiple source predictor and formally compare the strength of their association with an outcome. We extend multiple informant methods to the case of hierarchical data structures to account for within cluster correlation. We apply the proposed method to examine the relationship between features of the food environment near schools and children's body mass index z-scores (BMIz). Specifically, we compare the associations between two different features of the food environment (fast food restaurants and convenience stores) with BMIz and investigate how the association between the number of fast food restaurants or convenience stores and child's BMIz varies across distance from a school. The newly developed methodology enhances the types of research questions that can be asked by investigators studying effects of environment on childhood obesity and can be applied to other fields.

SUBMITTER: Baek J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4103695 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Hierarchical multiple informants models: examining food environment contributions to the childhood obesity epidemic.

Baek Jonggyu J Sánchez Brisa N BN Sanchez-Vaznaugh Emma V EV

Statistics in medicine 20130913 4

Methods for multiple informants help to estimate the marginal effect of each multiple source predictor and formally compare the strength of their association with an outcome. We extend multiple informant methods to the case of hierarchical data structures to account for within cluster correlation. We apply the proposed method to examine the relationship between features of the food environment near schools and children's body mass index z-scores (BMIz). Specifically, we compare the associations ...[more]

PMID: 24038440

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Promising school policies to improve children's diets include providing fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) and competitive food restrictions on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), yet the impact of national implementation of these policies in US schools on cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk factors and outcomes is not known. Our objective was to estimate the impact of national implementation of F&V provision and SSB restriction in US elementary, middle, and high schools on dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) in children and future CMD mortality. METHODS:We used comparative risk assessment (CRA) frameworks to model the impacts of these policies with input parameters from nationally representative surveys, randomized-controlled trials, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For children ages 5-18 years, this incorporated national data on current dietary intakes and BMI, impacts of these policies on diet, and estimated effects of dietary changes on BMI. In adults ages 25 and older, we further incorporated the sustainability of dietary changes to adulthood, effects of dietary changes on CMD, and national CMD death statistics, modeling effects if these policies had been in place when current US adults were children. Uncertainty across inputs was incorporated using 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS:National F&V provision would increase daily fruit intake in children by as much as 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15.4, 37.7%), and would have small effects on vegetable intake. SSB restriction would decrease daily SSB intake by as much as 26.5% (95% UI: 6.4, 46.4%), and reduce BMI by as much as 0.7% (95% UI: 0.2, 1.2%). If F&V provision and SSB restriction were nationally implemented, an estimated 22,383 CMD deaths/year (95% UI: 18735, 25930) would be averted. CONCLUSION:National school F&V provision and SSB restriction policies implemented in elementary, middle, and high schools could improve diet and BMI in children and reduce CMD mortality later in life.

Dataset Information

Hierarchical multiple informants models: examining food environment contributions to the childhood obesity epidemic.

Publications

Hierarchical multiple informants models: examining food environment contributions to the childhood obesity epidemic.

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