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Risk factors for adverse prognosis and death in American visceral leishmaniasis: a meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In the current context of high fatality rates associated with American visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the appropriate use of prognostic factors to identify patients at higher risk of unfavorable outcomes represents a potential tool for clinical practice. This systematic review brings together information reported in studies conducted in Latin America, on the potential predictors of adverse prognosis (continued evolution of the initial clinical conditions of the patient despite the implementation of treatment, independent of the occurrence of death) and death from VL. The limitations of the existing knowledge, the advances achieved and the approaches to be used in future research are presented. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:The full texts of 14 studies conforming to the inclusion criteria were analyzed and their methodological quality examined by means of a tool developed in the light of current research tools. Information regarding prognostic variables was synthesized using meta-analysis. Variables were grouped according to the strength of evidence considering summary measures, patterns and heterogeneity of effect-sizes, and the results of multivariate analyses. The strongest predictors identified in this review were jaundice, thrombocytopenia, hemorrhage, HIV coinfection, diarrhea, age <5 and age >40-50 years, severe neutropenia, dyspnoea and bacterial infections. Edema and low hemoglobin concentration were also associated with unfavorable outcomes. The main limitation identified was the absence of validation procedures for the few prognostic models developed so far. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Integration of the results from different investigations conducted over the last 10 years enabled the identification of consistent prognostic variables that could be useful in recognizing and handling VL patients at higher risk of unfavorable outcomes. The development of externally validated prognostic models must be prioritized in future investigations.

SUBMITTER: Belo VS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4109848 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk factors for adverse prognosis and death in American visceral leishmaniasis: a meta-analysis.

Belo Vinícius Silva VS Struchiner Claudio José CJ Barbosa David Soeiro DS Nascimento Bruno Warlley Leandro BW Horta Marco Aurélio Pereira MA da Silva Eduardo Sérgio ES Werneck Guilherme Loureiro GL

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20140724 7

<h4>Background</h4>In the current context of high fatality rates associated with American visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the appropriate use of prognostic factors to identify patients at higher risk of unfavorable outcomes represents a potential tool for clinical practice. This systematic review brings together information reported in studies conducted in Latin America, on the potential predictors of adverse prognosis (continued evolution of the initial clinical conditions of the patient despite t ...[more]

PMID: 25058582

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Project description:BackgroundDespite a historical association with poor tolerability, a comprehensive review on safety of antileishmanial chemotherapies is lacking. We carried out an update of a previous systematic review of all published clinical trials in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) from 1980 to 2019 to document any reported serious adverse events (SAEs).MethodsFor this updated systematic review, we searched the following databases from 1st Jan 2016 through 2nd of May 2019: PUBMED, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane, clinicaltrials.gov, WHO ICTRP, and the Global Index Medicus. We included randomised and non-randomised interventional studies aimed at assessing therapeutic efficacy and extracted the number of SAEs reported within the first 30 days of treatment initiation. The incidence rate of death (IRD) from individual treatment arms were combined in a meta-analysis using random effects Poisson regression.ResultsWe identified 157 published studies enrolling 35,376 patients in 347 treatment arms. Pentavalent antimony was administered in 74 (21.3%), multiple-dose liposomal amphotericin B (L-AmB) in 52 (15.0%), amphotericin b deoxycholate in 51 (14.7%), miltefosine in 33 (9.5%), amphotericin b fat/lipid/colloid/cholesterol in 31 (8.9%), and single-dose L-AmB in 17 (4.9%) arms. There was a total of 804 SAEs reported of which 793 (including 428 deaths) were extracted at study arm level (11 SAEs were reported at study level only). During the first 30 days, there were 285 (66.6%) deaths with the overall IRD estimated at 0.068 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.041-0.114; I2 = 81.4%; 95% prediction interval (PI): 0.001-2.779] per 1,000 person-days at risk; the rate was 0.628 [95% CI: 0.368-1.021; I2 = 82.5%] in Eastern Africa, and 0.041 [95% CI: 0.021-0.081; I2 = 68.1%] in the Indian Subcontinent. In 21 study arms which clearly indicated allowing the inclusion of patients with HIV co-infections the IRD was 0.575 [95% CI: 0.244-1.355; I2 = 91.9%] compared to 0.043 [95% CI: 0.020-0.090; I2 = 62.5%] in 160 arms which excluded HIV co-infections.ConclusionMortality within the first 30 days of VL treatment initiation was a rarely reported event in clinical trials with an overall estimated rate of 0.068 deaths per 1,000 person-days at risk, though it varied across regions and patient populations. These estimates may serve as a benchmark for future trials against which mortality data from prospective and pharmacovigilance studies can be compared. The methodological limitations exposed by our review support the need to assemble individual patient data (IPD) to conduct robust IPD meta-analyses and generate stronger evidence from existing trials to support treatment guidelines and guide future research.

Project description:BackgroundStill today, more than 30 years after the beginning of the process of visceral leishmaniasis' urbanization, there is little knowledge about the risk factors for its occurrence, despite their relevance to the control and understanding of disease dynamics. The present study is the first systematic review with meta-analysis about factors associated with Leishmania infantum infection in humans in the Americas.Methods and findingsAfter searching different databases, consultations to the reference lists of articles and to experts in the field, 51 studies were reviewed. Theoretical discussions or meta-analysis of p-values or of effect sizes were used to pool information about each variable. The Q test and the I(2) statistic were used to assess heterogeneities among the studies. Male sex was associated with visceral leishmaniasis in studies which used the leishmanin skin test for diagnosis and in those where the outcome was the clinical disease; the opposite occurred when serological diagnosis was applied. Younger individuals were less frequently infected than adults, but were more prone to illness. Although with different levels of evidence and of heterogeneity, the presence of dogs at home, higher dog seropositivity in nearby areas, lower socioeconomic status and highly vegetated areas were associated with L. infantum infection. This was not noticed for the presence of chickens in the house and with nutritional status. Susceptibilities to bias and limitations in the analysis and in the description of results were often identified in the studies analyzed.ConclusionsResults showed the existence of consistent patterns for some of the factors analyzed and should be taken into account in developing more effective and well-targeted control measures. Studies must be conducted in new areas of the continent, with improved methodological quality and prioritizing the investigation of the patterns identified and their causes, as well as variables for which knowledge is poor.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease that is deadly if left untreated. Understanding which factors have prognostic value may help to focus clinical management and reduce case fatality. However, information about prognostic factors is scattered and conflicting. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify prognostic factors for mortality among VL patients in East Africa. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:The review protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42016043112). We included studies published in English after 1970 describing VL patients treated in East African health facilities. To be included, studies had to report on associations between clinical or laboratory factors and mortality during admission or during VL treatment, with a minimal study size of ten patients. Conference abstracts and evaluations of genetic or immunological prognostic factors were excluded. We searched for studies in MEDLINE and four other databases in December 2018. To assess the risk of bias in observational studies and clinical trials, we used the Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool. We included 48 studies in the systematic review, describing 150,072 VL patients of whom 7,847 (5.2%) died. Twelve prognostic factors were evaluated in five or more studies and these results were submitted to meta-analysis producing one pooled crude odds ratio (OR) per prognostic factor. The following factors were strongly (OR>3) and significantly (P-value<0.05) associated with mortality: jaundice (OR = 8.27), HIV (OR = 4.60), tuberculosis (OR = 4.06), age >45 years (OR = 3.69), oedema (OR = 3.52), bleeding (OR = 3.37), and haemoglobin ?6.5 g/dl (OR = 3.26). Factors significantly and moderately (OR between one and three) associated with death were severe malnutrition, long duration of illness, young age (<5 years), and large spleen size. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:These prognostic factors can be identified by health professionals in resource-constrained settings. They should be considered as "core" prognostic factors in future studies that aim at improving the prognosis of VL patients.

Project description:BACKGROUND:In Brazil, lethality from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is high and few studies have addressed prognostic factors. This historical cohort study was designed to investigate the prognostic factors for death from VL in Belo Horizonte (Brazil). METHODOLOGY:The analysis was based on data of the Reportable Disease Information System-SINAN (Brazilian Ministry of Health) relating to the clinical manifestations of the disease. During the study period (2002-2009), the SINAN changed platform from a Windows to a Net-version that differed with respect to some of the parameters collected. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify variables associated with death from VL, and these were included in prognostic score. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Model 1 (period 2002-2009; 111 deaths from VL and 777 cured patients) included the variables present in both SINAN versions, whereas Model 2 (period 2007-2009; 49 deaths from VL and 327 cured patients) included variables common to both SINAN versions plus the additional variables included in the Net version. In Model 1, the variables significantly associated with a greater risk of death from VL were weakness (OR 2.9; 95%CI 1.3-6.4), Leishmania-HIV co-infection (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.2-4.8) and age ?60 years (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.5-4.3). In Model 2, the variables were bleeding (OR 3.5; 95%CI 1.2-10.3), other associated infections (OR 3.2; 95%CI 1.3-7.8), jaundice (OR 10.1; 95%CI 3.7-27.2) and age ?60 years (OR 3.1; 95%CI 1.4-7.1). The prognosis score was developed using the variables associated with death from VL of the latest version of the SINAN (Model 2). The predictive performance of which was evaluated by sensitivity (71.4%), specificity (73.7%), positive and negative predictive values (28.9% and 94.5%) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (75.6%). CONCLUSIONS:Knowledge regarding the factors associated with death from VL may improve clinical management of patients and contribute to lower mortality.

Project description:BackgroundTo date, there is no specific literature available on the determinants for therapeutic failure (TF) with meglumine antimoniate (MA) in Northwestern-Argentina. This study aimed to identify epidemiological, clinical, and treatment-related factors that could be involved in TF.Methodology/principal findingsWe performed a case-control study. Cases were represented by patients who showed TF after administration of the first course of MA treatment, whereas, controls were determined as patients who evolved towards healing after the first MA cycle received. Crude Odds Ratios and their corresponding 90% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, and risk factors were then tested by multivariate analysis using logistic binary regression. Three hundred and eighty-four patients with a presumptive diagnosis of ACL were recruited, and 153 with a positive diagnosis were selected. We included in the study 71 patients, who underwent specific treatment with MA, presented complete data on response to treatment, and had a minimum post-treatment follow-up of 6 months in cutaneous leishmaniasis, and 12 months in mucosal leishmaniasis. Of these, 34 (47.9%) presented TF. In the initial analysis, TF was significantly associated with the geographical area of disease acquisition (p = 0.036), the presence of mucosal lesions (p = 0.042), the presence of concomitant skin and mucosal lesions (p = 0.002), and lesion age ≥ 6 months (p = 0.018). Risk factors influencing TF in the final multivariate model included the geographical area where the disease was acquired (adjusted Odd Ratio 8.062; 95% CI 1.914-33.959; p = 0.004), and lesion age ≥ 6 months (adjusted Odd Ratio 10.037; 95% CI 1.383-72.843; p = 0.023).Conclusions/significanceThe results of the present study suggest the existence of some risk factors linked to TF in Northwestern-Argentina, which deserve further investigation. Herein we recorded a high percentage of TF and we described clinical and epidemiological characteristics associated with TF that could be taken into account improving the clinical management of patients.

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Risk factors for adverse prognosis and death in American visceral leishmaniasis: a meta-analysis.

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Risk factors for adverse prognosis and death in American visceral leishmaniasis: a meta-analysis.

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