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Greater migratory propensity in hosts lowers pathogen transmission and impacts.

ABSTRACT: Animal migrations are spectacular and migratory species have been shown to transmit pathogens that pose risks to human health. Although migration is commonly assumed to enhance pathogen dispersal, empirical work indicates that migration can often have the opposite effect of lowering disease risk. Key to assessing disease threats to migratory species is the ability to predict how migratory behaviour influences pathogen invasion success and impacts on migratory hosts, thus motivating a mechanistic understanding of migratory host-pathogen interactions. Here, we develop a quantitative framework to examine pathogen transmission in animals that undergo two-way directed migrations between wintering and breeding grounds annually. Using the case of a pathogen transmitted during the host's breeding season, we show that a more extreme migratory strategy (defined by the time spent away from the breeding site and the total distance migrated) lowers the probability of pathogen invasion. Moreover, if migration substantially lowers the survival probability of infected animals, then populations that spend comparatively less time at the breeding site or that migrate longer distances are less vulnerable to pathogen-induced population declines. These findings provide theoretical support for two non-exclusive mechanisms proposed to explain how seasonal migration can lower infection risk: (i) escape from habitats where parasite transmission stages have accumulated and (ii) selective removal of infected hosts during strenuous journeys. Our work further suggests that barriers to long-distance movement could increase pathogen prevalence for vulnerable species, an effect already seen in some animal species undergoing anthropogenically induced migratory shifts.

SUBMITTER: Hall RJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4112027 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Greater migratory propensity in hosts lowers pathogen transmission and impacts.

Hall Richard J RJ Altizer Sonia S Bartel Rebecca A RA

The Journal of animal ecology 20140306 5

Animal migrations are spectacular and migratory species have been shown to transmit pathogens that pose risks to human health. Although migration is commonly assumed to enhance pathogen dispersal, empirical work indicates that migration can often have the opposite effect of lowering disease risk. Key to assessing disease threats to migratory species is the ability to predict how migratory behaviour influences pathogen invasion success and impacts on migratory hosts, thus motivating a mechanistic ...[more]

PMID: 24460702

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Project description:The spatial organization of populations determines their pathogen dynamics. This is particularly important for communally roosting species, whose aggregations are often driven by the spatial structure of their environment. We develop a spatially explicit model for virus transmission within roosts of Australian tree-dwelling bats (Pteropus spp.), parameterized to reflect Hendra virus. The spatial structure of roosts mirrors three study sites, and viral transmission between groups of bats in trees was modelled as a function of distance between roost trees. Using three levels of tree density to reflect anthropogenic changes in bat habitats, we investigate the potential effects of recent ecological shifts in Australia on the dynamics of zoonotic viruses in reservoir hosts. We show that simulated infection dynamics in spatially structured roosts differ from that of mean-field models for equivalently sized populations, highlighting the importance of spatial structure in disease models of gregarious taxa. Under contrasting scenarios of flying-fox roosting structures, sparse stand structures (with fewer trees but more bats per tree) generate higher probabilities of successful outbreaks, larger and faster epidemics, and shorter virus extinction times, compared to intermediate and dense stand structures with more trees but fewer bats per tree. These observations are consistent with the greater force of infection generated by structured populations with less numerous but larger infected groups, and may flag an increased risk of pathogen spillover from these increasingly abundant roost types. Outputs from our models contribute insights into the spread of viruses in structured animal populations, like communally roosting species, as well as specific insights into Hendra virus infection dynamics and spillover risk in a situation of changing host ecology. These insights will be relevant for modelling other zoonotic viruses in wildlife reservoir hosts in response to habitat modification and changing populations, including coronaviruses like SARS-CoV-2.

Dataset Information

Greater migratory propensity in hosts lowers pathogen transmission and impacts.

Publications

Greater migratory propensity in hosts lowers pathogen transmission and impacts.

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