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The fossilized birth-death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates.

ABSTRACT: Time-calibrated species phylogenies are critical for addressing a wide range of questions in evolutionary biology, such as those that elucidate historical biogeography or uncover patterns of coevolution and diversification. Because molecular sequence data are not informative on absolute time, external data--most commonly, fossil age estimates--are required to calibrate estimates of species divergence dates. For Bayesian divergence time methods, the common practice for calibration using fossil information involves placing arbitrarily chosen parametric distributions on internal nodes, often disregarding most of the information in the fossil record. We introduce the "fossilized birth-death" (FBD) process--a model for calibrating divergence time estimates in a Bayesian framework, explicitly acknowledging that extant species and fossils are part of the same macroevolutionary process. Under this model, absolute node age estimates are calibrated by a single diversification model and arbitrary calibration densities are not necessary. Moreover, the FBD model allows for inclusion of all available fossils. We performed analyses of simulated data and show that node age estimation under the FBD model results in robust and accurate estimates of species divergence times with realistic measures of statistical uncertainty, overcoming major limitations of standard divergence time estimation methods. We used this model to estimate the speciation times for a dataset composed of all living bears, indicating that the genus Ursus diversified in the Late Miocene to Middle Pliocene.

SUBMITTER: Heath TA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4115571 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The fossilized birth-death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates.

Heath Tracy A TA Huelsenbeck John P JP Stadler Tanja T

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20140709 29

Time-calibrated species phylogenies are critical for addressing a wide range of questions in evolutionary biology, such as those that elucidate historical biogeography or uncover patterns of coevolution and diversification. Because molecular sequence data are not informative on absolute time, external data--most commonly, fossil age estimates--are required to calibrate estimates of species divergence dates. For Bayesian divergence time methods, the common practice for calibration using fossil in ...[more]

PMID: 25009181

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Project description:Bayesian total-evidence dating involves the simultaneous analysis of morphological data from the fossil record and morphological and sequence data from recent organisms, and it accommodates the uncertainty in the placement of fossils while dating the phylogenetic tree. Due to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, total-evidence dating can also incorporate additional sources of information. Here, we take advantage of this and expand the analysis to include information about fossilization and sampling processes. Our work is based on the recently described fossilized birth-death (FBD) process, which has been used to model speciation, extinction, and fossilization rates that can vary over time in a piecewise manner. So far, sampling of extant and fossil taxa has been assumed to be either complete or uniformly at random, an assumption which is only valid for a minority of data sets. We therefore extend the FBD process to accommodate diversified sampling of extant taxa, which is standard practice in studies of higher-level taxa. We verify the implementation using simulations and apply it to the early radiation of Hymenoptera (wasps, ants, and bees). Previous total-evidence dating analyses of this data set were based on a simple uniform tree prior and dated the initial radiation of extant Hymenoptera to the late Carboniferous (309 Ma). The analyses using the FBD prior under diversified sampling, however, date the radiation to the Triassic and Permian (252 Ma), slightly older than the age of the oldest hymenopteran fossils. By exploring a variety of FBD model assumptions, we show that it is mainly the accommodation of diversified sampling that causes the push toward more recent divergence times. Accounting for diversified sampling thus has the potential to close the long-discussed gap between rocks and clocks. We conclude that the explicit modeling of fossilization and sampling processes can improve divergence time estimates, but only if all important model aspects, including sampling biases, are adequately addressed.

Project description:Bayesian molecular dating is widely used to study evolutionary timescales. This procedure usually involves phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequence data, with fossil-based calibrations applied as age constraints on internal nodes of the tree. An alternative approach is tip-dating, which explicitly includes fossil data in the analysis. This can be done, for example, through the joint analysis of molecular data from present-day taxa and morphological data from both extant and fossil taxa. In the context of tip-dating, an important development has been the fossilized birth-death process, which allows non-contemporaneous tips and sampled ancestors while providing a model of lineage diversification for the prior on the tree topology and internal node times. However, tip-dating with fossils faces a number of considerable challenges, especially, those associated with fossil sampling and evolutionary models for morphological characters. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model. We simulated fossil occurrences and the evolution of nucleotide sequences and morphological characters under a wide range of conditions. Our analyses of these data show that the number and the maximum age of fossil occurrences have a greater influence than the degree of among-lineage rate variation or the number of morphological characters on estimates of node times and the tree topology. Tip-dating with the fossilized birth-death model generally performs well in recovering the relationships among extant taxa but has difficulties in correctly placing fossil taxa in the tree and identifying the number of sampled ancestors. The method yields accurate estimates of the ages of the root and crown group, although the precision of these estimates varies with the probability of fossil occurrence. The exclusion of morphological characters results in a slight overestimation of node times, whereas the exclusion of nucleotide sequences has a negative impact on inference of the tree topology. Our results provide an overview of the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model, which will inform further development of the method and its application to key questions in evolutionary biology.

Project description:Bayesian phylogenetic methods integrating simultaneously morphological and stratigraphic information have been applied increasingly among paleontologists. Most of these studies have used Bayesian methods as an alternative to the widely-used parsimony analysis, to infer macroevolutionary patterns and relationships among species-level or higher taxa. Among recently introduced Bayesian methodologies, the Fossilized Birth-Death (FBD) model allows incorporation of hypotheses on ancestor-descendant relationships in phylogenetic analyses including fossil taxa. Here, the FBD model is used to infer the relationships among an ingroup formed exclusively by fossil individuals, i.e., dipnoan tooth plates from four localities in the Ain el Guettar Formation of Tunisia. Previous analyses of this sample compared the results of phylogenetic analysis using parsimony with stratigraphic methods, inferred a high diversity (five or more genera) in the Ain el Guettar Formation, and interpreted it as an artifact inflated by depositional factors. In the analysis performed here, the uncertainty on the chronostratigraphic relationships among the specimens was included among the prior settings. The results of the analysis confirm the referral of most of the specimens to the taxa Asiatoceratodus, Equinoxiodus, Lavocatodus and Neoceratodus, but reject those to Ceratodus and Ferganoceratodus. The resulting phylogeny constrained the evolution of the Tunisian sample exclusively in the Early Cretaceous, contrasting with the previous scenario inferred by the stratigraphically-calibrated topology resulting from parsimony analysis. The phylogenetic framework also suggests that (1) the sampled localities are laterally equivalent, (2) but three localities are restricted to the youngest part of the section; both results are in agreement with previous stratigraphic analyses of these localities. The FBD model of specimen-level units provides a novel tool for phylogenetic inference among fossils but also for independent tests of stratigraphic scenarios.

Project description:BackgroundThe increase in availability of genomic sequences for a wide range of organisms has revealed gene duplication to be a relatively common event. Encounters with duplicate gene copies have consequently become almost inevitable in the context of collecting gene sequences for inferring species trees. Here we examine the effect of incorporating duplicate gene copies evolving at different rates on tree reconstruction and time estimation of recent and deep divergences in butterflies.ResultsSequences from ultraviolet-sensitive (UVRh), blue-sensitive (BRh), and long-wavelength sensitive (LWRh) opsins,EF-1 and COI were obtained from 27 taxa representing the five major butterfly families (5535 bp total). Both BRh and LWRh are present in multiple copies in some butterfly lineages and the different copies evolve at different rates. Regardless of the phylogenetic reconstruction method used, we found that analyses of combined data sets using either slower or faster evolving copies of duplicate genes resulted in a single topology in agreement with our current understanding of butterfly family relationships based on morphology and molecules. Interestingly, individual analyses of BRh and LWRh sequences also recovered these family-level relationships. Two different relaxed clock methods resulted in similar divergence time estimates at the shallower nodes in the tree, regardless of whether faster or slower evolving copies were used, with larger discrepancies observed at deeper nodes in the phylogeny. The time of divergence between the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus and the queen D. gilippus (15.3-35.6 Mya) was found to be much older than the time of divergence between monarch co-mimic Limenitis archippus and red-spotted purple L. arthemis (4.7-13.6 Mya), and overlapping with the time of divergence of the co-mimetic passionflower butterflies Heliconius erato and H. melpomene (13.5-26.1 Mya). Our family-level results are congruent with recent estimates found in the literature and indicate an age of 84-113 million years for the divergence of all butterfly families.ConclusionThese results are consistent with diversification of the butterfly families following the radiation of angiosperms and suggest that some classes of opsin genes may be usefully employed for both phylogenetic reconstruction and divergence time estimation.

Dataset Information

The fossilized birth-death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates.

Publications

The fossilized birth-death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates.

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