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Advancing age and 30-day adverse outcomes after nonemergent general surgeries.

ABSTRACT: To determine whether 30-day postoperative mortality, complications, failure-to-rescue (FTR) rates, and postoperative length of stay increase with advancing age.Retrospective cohort study.Hospitals participating in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program.Individuals undergoing nonemergent major general surgeries between 2005 and 2008 were studied (N = 165,600).Postoperative outcomes of interest were complications occurring within 30 days of the index operation, return to the operating room within 30 days, FTR after a postoperative complication, postsurgical length of stay, and 30-day mortality.Postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, and each type of postoperative complication increased with increasing age. Rates of FTR after each type of postoperative complication also increased with age. Mortality in individuals aged 80 and older after renal insufficiency (43.3%), stroke (36.5%), myocardial infarction (MI) (35.6%), and pulmonary complications (25-39%) were particularly high. Median postoperative length of stay increased with age after surgical site infection, urinary tract infection, pneumonia, return to the operating room, and overall morbidity but not after venous thromboembolism, stroke, MI, renal insufficiency, failure to wean from the ventilator, or reintubation.Thirty-day mortality and complication and FTR rates increase with age after nonemergent general surgeries. Individuals aged 80 and older have especially high mortality after renal, cardiovascular, and pulmonary complications. Surgeons need to be more selective with advancing age regarding who will benefit from the surgical intervention.

SUBMITTER: Gajdos C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4119758 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Advancing age and 30-day adverse outcomes after nonemergent general surgeries.

Gajdos Csaba C Kile Deidre D Hawn Mary T MT Finlayson Emily E Henderson William G WG Robinson Thomas N TN

Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 20130808 9

<h4>Objectives</h4>To determine whether 30-day postoperative mortality, complications, failure-to-rescue (FTR) rates, and postoperative length of stay increase with advancing age.<h4>Design</h4>Retrospective cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Hospitals participating in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program.<h4>Participants</h4>Individuals undergoing nonemergent major general surgeries between 2005 and 2008 were studied (N = 165,600).<h4>Measurements</h4>Postope ...[more]

PMID: 23927841

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Project description:IntroductionNew financial incentives, such as reduced Medicare reimbursements, have led hospitals to closely monitor their readmission rates and initiate efforts aimed at reducing them. In this context, many surgical departments participate in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), which collects detailed demographic, laboratory, clinical, procedure and perioperative occurrence data. The availability of such data enables the development of data science methods which predict readmissions and, as done in this paper, offer specific recommendations aimed at preventing readmissions.Materials and methodsThis study leverages NSQIP data for 722,101 surgeries to develop predictive and prescriptive models, predicting readmissions and offering real-time, personalized treatment recommendations for surgical patients during their hospital stay, aimed at reducing the risk of a 30-day readmission. We applied a variety of classification methods to predict 30-day readmissions and developed two prescriptive methods to recommend pre-operative blood transfusions to increase the patient's hematocrit with the objective of preventing readmissions. The effect of these interventions was evaluated using several predictive models.ResultsPredictions of 30-day readmissions based on the entire collection of NSQIP variables achieve an out-of-sample accuracy of 87% (Area Under the Curve-AUC). Predictions based only on pre-operative variables have an accuracy of 74% AUC, out-of-sample. Personalized interventions, in the form of pre-operative blood transfusions identified by the prescriptive methods, reduce readmissions by 12%, on average, for patients considered as candidates for pre-operative transfusion (pre-operative hematoctic <30). The prediction accuracy of the proposed models exceeds results in the literature.ConclusionsThis study is among the first to develop a methodology for making specific, data-driven, personalized treatment recommendations to reduce the 30-day readmission rate. The reported predicted reduction in readmissions can lead to more than $20 million in savings in the U.S. annually.

Project description:IntroductionMitral valve repair has been established as the preferred treatment option in the management of degenerative mitral valve disease. Compared with other surgical treatment options, mitral valve repair is associated with increased survival and decreased rates of both complications and reoperations. However, among patients undergoing mitral valve repair, little is known about the predictors of postoperative outcomes. The purpose of this study is to identify preoperative patient risk factors associated with postoperative morbidity and mortality within 30 days of mitral valve repair.MethodsData was derived from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database to assess patients who underwent mitral valve repair from 2011 through 2017. Preoperative risk factors were analyzed to determine their association with a variety of postoperative 30-day outcome measures.ResultsOne thousand three hundred and sixty-six patients underwent mitral valve repair; 849 (62.2%) males and 517 (37.8%) females. Ages ranged from 18 to 90 years, with a mean age of 64 years. The overall 30-day mortality was 3.1% (43 patients). Among the 12 identified risk factors associated with increased mortality on univariate analysis, pre-operative hematocrit level was the only variable significantly correlated with mortality after undergoing multivariate analysis. 259 patients (19.1%) were discharged to a location other than home, an outcome associated with 22 identified risk factors. Among these risk factors, female gender, age, dialysis, pre-operative serum sodium, pre-operative serum albumin, and partial or full living dependency remained statistically significant following multivariate analysis. 126 patients (9.2%) experienced unplanned readmission. This outcome was associated with five risk factors, of which only dyspnea upon mild exertion was significant on multivariate analysis. Reoperation occurred in 105 patients (7.7%). Of the seven identified variables associated with reoperation, patient age, pre-operative platelet count, dyspnea upon mild exertion were independent predictors on multivariate analysis. 53 patients (3.9%) underwent reintubation, which was associated with 11 identified risk factors. Among them, patient age and pre-operative INR value were predictive of reintubation on multivariate analysis. 26 patients (1.9%) experienced stroke, of whom age was the only associated risk factor on both univariate and multivariate analysis. 31 patients (2.3%) experienced acute renal failure, which correlated with 11 risk factors on univariate analysis. Of these, only patient age and pre-operative hematocrit were identified as independent predictors on multivariate analysis.ConclusionsOutcomes are good following mitral valve repair. Although a substantial number of risk factors were found to be associated with adverse outcomes, only a small subset remained statistically significant following multivariate analysis. Identification of these risk factors may help guide clinical decision making with respect to which patients are the best candidates to undergo mitral valve repair.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:The purpose of this study was to examine the association of 30-day payments for an episode of heart failure (HF) care at the hospital level with patient outcomes. BACKGROUND:There is increased focus among policymakers on improving value for HF care, given its rising prevalence and associated financial burden in the United States; however, little is known about the relationship between payments and mortality for a 30-day episode of HF care. METHODS:Using Medicare claims data for all fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized for HF between July 1, 2011, and June 30, 2014, we examined the association between 30-day Medicare payments at the hospital level (beginning with a hospital admission for HF and across multiple settings following discharge) and patient 30-day mortality using mixed-effect logistic regression models. RESULTS:We included 1,343,792 patients hospitalized for HF across 2,948 hospitals. Mean hospital-level 30-day Medicare payments per beneficiary were $15,423 ± $1,523. Overall observed mortality in the cohort was 11.3%. Higher hospital-level 30-day payments were associated with lower patient mortality after adjustment for patient characteristics (odds ratio per $1,000 increase in payments: 0.961; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.954 to 0.967). This relationship was slightly attenuated after accounting for hospital characteristics and HF volume, but remained significant (odds ratio per $1,000 increase: 0.968; 95% CI: 0.962 to 0.975). Additional adjustment for potential mediating factors, including cardiac service capability and post-acute service use, did not significantly affect the relationship. CONCLUSIONS:Higher hospital-level 30-day episode payments were associated with lower patient mortality following a hospitalization for HF. This has implications for policies that incentivize reduction in payments without considering value. Further investigation is needed to understand the mechanisms that underlie this relationship.

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Advancing age and 30-day adverse outcomes after nonemergent general surgeries.

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Advancing age and 30-day adverse outcomes after nonemergent general surgeries.

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