Dataset Information

Natural history of anal dysplasia in an HIV-infected clinical care cohort: estimates using multi-state Markov modeling.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

(1) To model the natural history of anal neoplasia in HIV-infected patients using a 3-state Markov model of anal cancer pathogenesis, adjusting for cytology misclassification; and (2) to estimate the effects of selected time-varying covariates on transition probabilities.

Design

A retrospective cytology-based inception screening cohort of HIV-infected adults was analyzed using a 3-state Markov model of clinical pathogenesis of anal neoplasia.

Methods

Longitudinally ascertained cytology categories were adjusted for misclassification using estimates of cytology accuracy derived from the study cohort. Time-varying covariate effects were estimated as hazard ratios.

Results

(1) There was a moderate to high probability of regression of the high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) state (27-62%) at 2 years after initial cytology screening; (2) the probability of developing invasive anal cancer (IAC) during the first 2 years after a baseline HSIL cytology is low (1.9-2.8%); (3) infrared coagulation (IRC) ablation of HSIL lesions is associated with a 2.2-4.2 fold increased probability of regression to ConclusionsThe finding of moderate to high rates of regression of the HSIL state accompanied by low rates of progression to IAC should inform both screening and precursor treatment guideline development. There appears to be a consistent and robust beneficial effect of antiretroviral therapy, suppressed viral load, and higher CD4 on the transition from the

SUBMITTER: Mathews WC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4125167 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Natural history of anal dysplasia in an HIV-infected clinical care cohort: estimates using multi-state Markov modeling.

Mathews William C WC Agmas Wollelaw W Cachay Edward R ER Cosman Bard C BC Jackson Christopher C

PloS one 20140807 8

<h4>Objectives</h4>(1) To model the natural history of anal neoplasia in HIV-infected patients using a 3-state Markov model of anal cancer pathogenesis, adjusting for cytology misclassification; and (2) to estimate the effects of selected time-varying covariates on transition probabilities.<h4>Design</h4>A retrospective cytology-based inception screening cohort of HIV-infected adults was analyzed using a 3-state Markov model of clinical pathogenesis of anal neoplasia.<h4>Methods</h4>Longitudinal ...[more]

PMID: 25101757

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundThe progression rate and predictors of anal dysplastic lesions to squamous cell carcinoma of the anus remain unclear. Characterizing these parameters may help refine anal cancer screening guidelines.ObjectiveThis study aimed to determine the rate of progression of high-grade anal dysplasia to invasive carcinoma in HIV-infected persons.DesignUsing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database linked to Medicare claims from 2000 to 2011, we identified HIV-infected subjects with incident anal intraepithelial neoplasia III. To estimate the rate of progression of anal intraepithelial neoplasia III to invasive cancer, we calculated the cumulative incidence of anal cancer in this cohort. We then fitted Poisson models to evaluate the potential risk factors for incident anal cancer.SettingsThis is a population-based study.PatientsIncluded were 592 HIV-infected subjects with incident anal intraepithelial neoplasia III.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome measured was incident squamous cell carcinoma of the anus.ResultsStudy subjects were largely male (95%) with a median age of 45.7 years. Within the median follow-up period of 69 months, 33 subjects progressed to anal cancer. The incidence of anal cancer was 1.2% (95% CI, 0.7%-2.5%) and 5.7% (95% CI, 4.0%-8.1%) at 1 and 5 years, following a diagnosis of anal intraepithelial neoplasia III. Risk of progression did not differ by anal intraepithelial neoplasia III treatment status. On unadjusted analysis, black race (p = 0.02) and a history of anogenital condylomata (p = 0.03) were associated with an increased risk of anal cancer incidence, whereas prior anal cytology screening was associated with a decreased risk (p = 0.04).LimitationsThe identification of some incident cancer episodes used surrogate measures.ConclusionsIn our population-based cohort of HIV-infected subjects with long-term follow-up, the risk of progression from anal intraepithelial neoplasia III to anal squamous cell carcinoma was higher than reported in other studies and was not associated with the receipt of anal intraepithelial neoplasia III treatment. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A933.

Dataset Information

Natural history of anal dysplasia in an HIV-infected clinical care cohort: estimates using multi-state Markov modeling.

Objectives

Design

Methods

Results

Publications

Natural history of anal dysplasia in an HIV-infected clinical care cohort: estimates using multi-state Markov modeling.

Similar Datasets

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