Dataset Information

Heat Stress Increases Long-term Human Migration in Rural Pakistan.

ABSTRACT: Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities (1-2). Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited (3-9). A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991-2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite-derived measures of climate variability and control for potential confounders using a multivariate approach. We find that flooding-a climate shock associated with large relief efforts-has modest to insignificant impacts on migration. Heat stress, however-which has attracted relatively little relief-consistently increases the long-term migration of men, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Addressing weather-related displacement will require policies that both enhance resilience to climate shocks and lower barriers to welfare-enhancing population movements.

SUBMITTER: Mueller V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4132829 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Heat Stress Increases Long-term Human Migration in Rural Pakistan.

Mueller V V Gray C C Kosec K K

Nature climate change 20140301

Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities (1-2). Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited (3-9). A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991-2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite- ...[more]

PMID: 25132865

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Project description:BackgroundDecisions under risk and with outcomes that are delayed in time are ubiquitous in real life and can have a significant impact on the health and wealth of the decision-maker. Despite its potential relevance for real-world choices, the degree of aberrant risky and intertemporal decision-making in patients suffering from major depressive disorder (MDD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has received little attention to date.MethodWe used a case-control design to compare decision-making in healthy control subjects (N=16) versus untreated depressed subjects in a current major depressive episode (N=20). In order to examine how major depressive disorder (MDD) may impact decision-making, subjects made decisions over (1) risky outcomes and (2) delayed outcomes in the domain of gains and losses using choice paradigms from neuroeconomics. In a pre-planned analysis, depressed subjects were subdivided into those with primary PTSD along with comorbid MDD (MDD+PTSD) versus those with primary MDD without PTSD (MDD-only). Choice behavior was modeled via a standard econometric model of intertemporal choice, a quasi-hyperbolic temporal discounting function, which was estimated for each subject group separately.ResultsUnder conditions of potential gain, depressed subjects demonstrated greater discounting for gains across all time frames compared to controls. In the realm of losses, both subgroups of depressed subjects discounted more steeply than controls for short time frames. However, for delayed losses ranging from >1-10 years, MDD+PTSD subjects showed shallower discounting rates relative to MDD-only subjects, who continued to discount future losses steeply. Risk attitudes did not contribute to differences in intertemporal choice.ConclusionsDepressed patients make choices that minimize current pain and maximize current reward, despite severe later consequences or lost opportunities. Anxiety associated with PTSD may serve as a partially protective factor in decision-making about long-term potential losses compared to MDD patients without PTSD.

Project description:A new variety of zinc biofortified wheat (Zincol-2016) was released in Pakistan in 2016. The primary aim of this study was to examine the effects of consuming Zincol-2016 wheat flour on biochemical and functional markers of zinc status in a population with widespread zinc deficiency. An individually-randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled cross over design was used. Fifty households were recruited to participate in the study, with each household included at least one woman of reproductive age (16-49 years) who was neither pregnant nor breast feeding or currently taking nutritional supplements. All households were provided with control flour for an initial 2-week baseline period, followed by the intervention period where households were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to receive biofortified flour (group A; n = 25) and control flour (group B; n = 25) for 8-weeks, then switched to the alternate flour for 8-weeks. The trial has been registered with the ISRCTN (https://www.isrctn.com), ID ISRCTN83678069. The primary outcome measure was plasma zinc concentration, and the secondary outcome measures were plasma selenium and copper concentrations, plasma copper:zinc ratio and fatty acid desaturase and elongase activity indices. Nutrient intake was assessed using 24-h dietary recall interviews. Mineral concentrations in plasma were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and free fatty acids and sphingolipids by mass spectrometry. Linear Mixed Model regression and General Linear Model with repeated measures were used to analyse the outcomes. Based on an average flour consumption of 224 g/day, Zincol-2016 flour provided an additional daily zinc intake of between 3.0 and 6.0 mg for white and whole grain flour, respectively. No serious adverse events were reported. This resulted in significant, increase in plasma zinc concentration after 4 weeks [mean difference 41.5 μg/L, 95% CI (6.9-76.1), p = 0.02]. This was not present after 8 weeks (p = 0.6). There were no consistent significant effects of the intervention on fatty acid desaturase and elongase activity indices. Regular consumption of Zincol-2016 flour increased the daily zinc intake of women of reproductive age by 30-60%, however this was not associated with a sustained improvement in indices of zinc status.

Dataset Information

Heat Stress Increases Long-term Human Migration in Rural Pakistan.

Publications

Heat Stress Increases Long-term Human Migration in Rural Pakistan.

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