Dataset Information

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity.

ABSTRACT: With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N-30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

SUBMITTER: Seferian R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4136572 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity.

Séférian Roland R Bopp Laurent L Gehlen Marion M Swingedouw Didier D Mignot Juliette J Guilyardi Eric E Servonnat Jérôme J

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20140728 32

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N-30°S), ...[more]

PMID: 25071174

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Project description:The allocation of the net primary productivity (NPP) of an ecosystem between canopy, woody tissue and fine roots is an important descriptor of the functioning of that ecosystem, and an important feature to correctly represent in terrestrial ecosystem models. Here, we collate and analyse a global dataset of NPP allocation in tropical forests, and compare this with the representation of NPP allocation in 13 terrestrial ecosystem models. On average, the data suggest an equal partitioning of allocation between all three main components (mean 34 ± 6% canopy, 39 ± 10% wood, 27 ± 11% fine roots), but there is substantial site-to-site variation in allocation to woody tissue versus allocation to fine roots. Allocation to canopy (leaves, flowers and fruit) shows much less variance. The mean allocation of the ecosystem models is close to the mean of the data, but the spread is much greater, with several models reporting allocation partitioning outside of the spread of the data. Where all main components of NPP cannot be measured, litterfall is a good predictor of overall NPP (r(2) = 0.83 for linear fit forced through origin), stem growth is a moderate predictor and fine root production a poor predictor. Across sites the major component of variation of allocation is a shifting allocation between wood and fine roots, with allocation to the canopy being a relatively invariant component of total NPP. This suggests the dominant allocation trade-off is a 'fine root versus wood' trade-off, as opposed to the expected 'root-shoot' trade-off; such a trade-off has recently been posited on theoretical grounds for old-growth forest stands. We conclude by discussing the systematic biases in estimates of allocation introduced by missing NPP components, including herbivory, large leaf litter and root exudates production. These biases have a moderate effect on overall carbon allocation estimates, but are smaller than the observed range in allocation values across sites.

Dataset Information

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity.

Publications

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity.

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