Dataset Information

Untreated brain arteriovenous malformation: patient-level meta-analysis of hemorrhage predictors.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To identify risk factors for intracranial hemorrhage in the natural history course of brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) using individual patient data meta-analysis of 4 existing cohorts.

Methods

We harmonized data from Kaiser Permanente of Northern California (n = 856), University of California San Francisco (n = 787), Columbia University (n = 672), and the Scottish Intracranial Vascular Malformation Study (n = 210). We censored patients at first treatment, death, last visit, or 10-year follow-up, and performed stratified Cox regression analysis of time-to-hemorrhage after evaluating hemorrhagic presentation, sex, age at diagnosis, deep venous drainage, and AVM size as predictors. Multiple imputation was performed to assess impact of missing data.

Results

A total of 141 hemorrhage events occurred during 6,074 patient-years of follow-up (annual rate of 2.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0%-2.7%), higher for ruptured (4.8%, 3.9%-5.9%) than unruptured (1.3%, 1.0%-1.7%) AVMs at presentation. Hemorrhagic presentation (hazard ratio 3.86, 95% CI 2.42-6.14) and increasing age (1.34 per decade, 1.17-1.53) independently predicted hemorrhage and remained significant predictors in the imputed dataset. Female sex (1.49, 95% CI 0.96-2.30) and exclusively deep venous drainage (1.60, 0.95-2.68, p = 0.02 in imputed dataset) may be additional predictors. AVM size was not associated with intracerebral hemorrhage in multivariable models (p > 0.5).

Conclusion

This large, individual patient data meta-analysis identified hemorrhagic presentation and increasing age as independent predictors of hemorrhage during follow-up. Additional AVM cohort data may further improve precision of estimates, identify new risk factors, and allow validation of prediction models.

SUBMITTER: Kim H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4141996 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Children with untreated brain arteriovenous malformations (bAVM) are at risk of encountering life-threatening hemorrhage very early in their lives. The primary aim of invasive treatment is to reduce unfavorable outcome associated with a bAVM rupture. A better understanding of the morbidity of bAVM hemorrhage might be helpful for weighing the risks of untreated bAVM and invasive treatment. Our aim was to assess the clinical outcome after bAVM rupture and identify features to predict severe hemorrhage in children.We identified all consecutive children admitted to our institution for bAVMs between July 2009 and December 2014. Clinical outcome after hemorrhagic presentation and subsequent hemorrhage was evaluated using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) for children. The association of demographic characteristics and bAVM morphology with severe hemorrhage (mRS >3 or requiring emergency hematoma evacuation) was studied using univariate and multivariable regression analyses. A nomogram based on multivariable analysis was formulated to predict severe hemorrhage risk for individual patients.A total of 134 patients were identified with a mean treatment-free follow-up period of 2.1 years. bAVM ruptured in 83 (62%) children: 82 had a hemorrhage at presentation and 6 of them experienced a recurrent hemorrhage during follow-up; 1 patient had other diagnostic symptoms but bled during follow-up. Among them, 49% (41/83) had a severe hemorrhage; emergency hematoma evacuation was required in 28% of them (23/83), and 24% (20/83) remained as disabled (mRS ?3) at last follow-up. Forty-six percent (38/82) of children with hemorrhagic presentation were severely disabled (mRS >3). Forty-three percent (3/7) were severely disabled after subsequent hemorrhage. The annual rate of severe subsequent hemorrhage was 1% in the overall cohort and 3.3% in children with ruptured presentation. All the subsequent severe hemorrhage events occurred in children with severe hemorrhage history (7%, 3/41). Periventricular location, non-temporal lobe location, and long draining vein were predictors for severe hemorrhage in pediatric untreated bAVMs. A nomogram based on bAVM morphology was contracted to predict severe hemorrhage risk for individual patients, which was well calibrated and had a good discriminative ability (adjusted C-statistic, 0.72).Evaluating bAVM morbidity and morphology might be helpful for weighing the risks of untreated bAVM in pediatric patients.

Project description:Objectives: Rupture of a brain arteriovenous malformation (bAVM) can cause intracranial hemorrhage and severe clinical outcomes. At present, the mechanisms of bAVM-related hemorrhage are poorly understood. This study aimed to summarize the potential genetic risk factors for bAVM-related hemorrhage and appraise the methodological quality of existing genetic studies on bAVM-related hemorrhage using a cross-sectional design. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted on genetic studies associated with bAVM-related hemorrhage published in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Internet, and Wangfang databases, up to November 2022. Subsequently, a cross-sectional study was performed to describe the potential candidate genetic variants of bAVM associated with risk of hemorrhage and to evaluate the methodological quality of the identified studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale and Q-genie tool. Results: Of the 1811 records identified in the initial search, nine studies met the filtering criteria and were included. Twelve single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), including IL6 rs1800795, IL17A rs2275913, MMP9 rs9509, VEGFA rs1547651, and EPHB4 rs314353, rs314308, and rs314313, were associated with bAVM-related hemorrhage. However, only 12.5% of the evaluated SNPs showed statistical power> 0.80 (α = 0.05). Methodological quality assessment revealed significant flaws in the designs of the included studies, such as less reliable representativeness of recruited individuals, short follow-up periods in cohort studies, and less comparability between groups of hemorrhagic and non-hemorrhagic patients. Conclusion: IL1B, IL6, IL17A, APOE, MMP9, VEGFA and EPHB4 were potentially associated with bAVM-related hemorrhage. The methodological designs of the analyzed studies required improvement in order to obtain more reliable results. Regional alliances and rare disease banks need to be established to recruit large numbers of bAVM patients (especially familial and extreme-trait cases) in a multicenter, prospective cohort study with an adequate follow-up period. Furthermore, it is important to use advanced sequencing techniques and efficient measures to filter candidate genetic variants.