Dataset Information

Detection of independent associations in a large epidemiologic dataset: a comparison of random forests, boosted regression trees, conventional and penalized logistic regression for identifying independent factors associated with H1N1pdm influenza infections.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Big data is steadily growing in epidemiology. We explored the performances of methods dedicated to big data analysis for detecting independent associations between exposures and a health outcome.

Methods

We searched for associations between 303 covariates and influenza infection in 498 subjects (14% infected) sampled from a dedicated cohort. Independent associations were detected using two data mining methods, the Random Forests (RF) and the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT); the conventional logistic regression framework (Univariate Followed by Multivariate Logistic Regression - UFMLR) and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) with penalty in multivariate logistic regression to achieve a sparse selection of covariates. We developed permutations tests to assess the statistical significance of associations. We simulated 500 similar sized datasets to estimate the True (TPR) and False (FPR) Positive Rates associated with these methods.

Results

Between 3 and 24 covariates (1%-8%) were identified as associated with influenza infection depending on the method. The pre-seasonal haemagglutination inhibition antibody titer was the unique covariate selected with all methods while 266 (87%) covariates were not selected by any method. At 5% nominal significance level, the TPR were 85% with RF, 80% with BRT, 26% to 49% with UFMLR, 71% to 78% with LASSO. Conversely, the FPR were 4% with RF and BRT, 9% to 2% with UFMLR, and 9% to 4% with LASSO.

Conclusions

Data mining methods and LASSO should be considered as valuable methods to detect independent associations in large epidemiologic datasets.

SUBMITTER: Mansiaux Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4146451 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Detection of independent associations in a large epidemiologic dataset: a comparison of random forests, boosted regression trees, conventional and penalized logistic regression for identifying independent factors associated with H1N1pdm influenza infections.

Mansiaux Yohann Y Carrat Fabrice F

BMC medical research methodology 20140826

<h4>Background</h4>Big data is steadily growing in epidemiology. We explored the performances of methods dedicated to big data analysis for detecting independent associations between exposures and a health outcome.<h4>Methods</h4>We searched for associations between 303 covariates and influenza infection in 498 subjects (14% infected) sampled from a dedicated cohort. Independent associations were detected using two data mining methods, the Random Forests (RF) and the Boosted Regression Trees (BR ...[more]

PMID: 25154404

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Project description:BackgroundClinical models to predict first trimester viability are traditionally based on multivariable logistic regression (LR) which is not directly interpretable for non-statistical experts like physicians. Furthermore, LR requires complete datasets and pre-established variables specifications. In this study, we leveraged the internal non-linearity, feature selection and missing values handling mechanisms of machine learning algorithms, along with a post-hoc interpretability strategy, as potential advantages over LR for clinical modeling.MethodsThe dataset included 1154 patients with 2377 individual scans and was obtained from a prospective observational cohort study conducted at a hospital in London, UK, from March 2014 to May 2019. The data were split into a training (70%) and a test set (30%). Parsimonious and complete multivariable models were developed from two algorithms to predict first trimester viability at 11-14 weeks gestational age (GA): LR and light gradient boosted machine (LGBM). Missing values were handled by multiple imputation where appropriate. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework was applied to derive individual explanations of the models.ResultsThe parsimonious LGBM model had similar discriminative and calibration performance as the parsimonious LR (AUC 0.885 vs 0.860; calibration slope: 1.19 vs 1.18). The complete models did not outperform the parsimonious models. LGBM was robust to the presence of missing values and did not require multiple imputation unlike LR. Decision path plots and feature importance analysis revealed different algorithm behaviors despite similar predictive performance. The main driving variable from the LR model was the pre-specified interaction between fetal heart presence and mean sac diameter. The crown-rump length variable and a proxy variable reflecting the difference in GA between expected and observed GA were the two most important variables of LGBM. Finally, while variable interactions must be specified upfront with LR, several interactions were ranked by the SHAP framework among the most important features learned automatically by the LGBM algorithm.ConclusionsGradient boosted algorithms performed similarly to carefully crafted LR models in terms of discrimination and calibration for first trimester viability prediction. By handling multi-collinearity, missing values, feature selection and variable interactions internally, the gradient boosted trees algorithm, combined with SHAP, offers a serious alternative to traditional LR models.

Dataset Information

Detection of independent associations in a large epidemiologic dataset: a comparison of random forests, boosted regression trees, conventional and penalized logistic regression for identifying independent factors associated with H1N1pdm influenza infections.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Detection of independent associations in a large epidemiologic dataset: a comparison of random forests, boosted regression trees, conventional and penalized logistic regression for identifying independent factors associated with H1N1pdm influenza infections.

Similar Datasets

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