Re: "Validation of a method for reconstructing historical rates of smoking prevalence".
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lillard DR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4157701 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Re: "Validation of a method for reconstructing historical rates of smoking prevalence".
Lillard Dean R DR Christopoulou Rebekka R Gil Lacruz Ana A
American journal of epidemiology 20140725 6
Similar Datasets
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC10525057 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Historical precipitation records are fundamental for the management of water resources, yet rainfall observations typically span 100-150 years at most, with considerable uncertainties surrounding earlier records. Here, we analyse some of the longest available precipitation records globally, for England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland. To assess the credibility of these records and extend them further back in time, we statistically reconstruct (using independent predictors) monthly precipitation series representing these regions for the period 1748-2000. By applying the Standardized Precipitation Index at 12-month accumulations (SPI-12) to the observed and our reconstructed series we re-evaluate historical meteorological droughts. We find strong agreement between observed and reconstructed drought chronologies in post-1870 records, but divergence in earlier series due to biases in early precipitation observations. Hence, the 1800s decade was less drought prone in our reconstructions relative to observations. Overall, the drought of 1834-1836 was the most intense SPI-12 event in our reconstruction for England and Wales. Newspaper accounts and documentary sources confirm the extent of impacts across England in particular. We also identify a major, "forgotten" drought in 1765-1768 that affected the British-Irish Isles. This was the most intense event in our reconstructions for Ireland and Scotland, and ranks first for accumulated deficits across all three regional series. Moreover, the 1765-1768 event was also the most extreme multi-year drought across all regional series when considering 36-month accumulations (SPI-36). Newspaper and other sources confirm the occurrence and major socio-economic impact of this drought, such as major rivers like the Shannon being fordable by foot. Our results provide new insights into historical droughts across the British Irish Isles. Given the importance of historical droughts for stress-testing the resilience of water resources, drought plans and supply systems, the forgotten drought of 1765-1768 offers perhaps the most extreme benchmark scenario in more than 250-years.
| S-EPMC7818482 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundKeel flowers are bilaterally symmetrical, pentamerous flowers with three different petal types and reproductive organs enclosed by keel petals; generally there is also connation of floral parts such as stamens and keel petals. In this study, the evolution of keel flowers within the order Fabales is explored to investigate whether the establishment of this flower type within one of the species-rich families, the Fabaceae (Leguminosae), preceded and could have influenced the evolution of keel flowers in the Polygalaceae. We conducted molecular dating, and ancestral area and ancestral state analyses for a phylogeny constructed for 678 taxa using published matK, rbcL and trnL plastid gene regions.ResultsWe reveal the temporal and spatial origins of keel flowers and traits associated with pollinators, specifically floral symmetry, the presence or absence of a pentamerous corolla and three distinct petal types, the presence or absence of enclosed reproductive organs, androecium types, inflorescence types, inflorescence size, flower size, plant height and habit. Ancestral area reconstructions show that at the time keel flowers appeared in the Polygaleae, subfamily Papilionoideae of the Fabaceae was already distributed almost globally; at least eight clades of the Papilionoideae had keel flowers with a functional morphology broadly similar to the morphology of the first evolving Polygaleae flowers.ConclusionsThe multiple origins of keel flowers within angiosperms likely represent convergence due to bee specialization, and therefore pollinator pressure. In the case of the Fabales, the first evolving keel flowers of Polygaleae have a functional morphology that corresponds with keel flowers of species of the Papilionoideae already present in the environment. These findings are consistent with the keel-flowered Polygaleae exploiting pollinators of keel-flowered Papilionoideae. The current study is the first to use ancestral reconstructions of traits associated with pollination to demonstrate that the multiple evolutionary origins of the keel flower pollinator syndrome in Fabales are consistent with, though do not prove, mimicry.
| S-EPMC9004149 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The understanding of recent climate extremes and the characterization of climate risk require examining these extremes within a historical context. However, the existing datasets of observed extremes generally exhibit spatial gaps and inaccuracies due to inadequate spatial extrapolation. This problem arises from traditional statistical methods used to account for the lack of measurements, particularly prevalent before the mid-20th century. In this work, we use artificial intelligence to reconstruct observations of European climate extremes (warm and cold days and nights) by leveraging Earth system model data from CMIP6 through transfer learning. Our method surpasses conventional statistical techniques and diffusion models, showcasing its ability to reconstruct past extreme events and reveal spatial trends across an extensive time span (1901-2018) that is not covered by most reanalysis datasets. Providing our dataset to the climate community will improve the characterization of climate extremes, resulting in better risk management and policies.
| S-EPMC11502677 | biostudies-literature
Project description:MotivationSingle-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) enables comprehensive characterization of the cell state. However, its destructive nature prohibits measuring gene expression changes during dynamic processes such as embryogenesis or cell state divergence due to injury or disease. Although recent studies integrating scRNA-seq with lineage tracing have provided clonal insights between progenitor and mature cells, challenges remain. Because of their experimental nature, observations are sparse, and cells observed in the early state are not the exact progenitors of cells observed at later time points. To overcome these limitations, we developed LineageVAE, a novel computational methodology that utilizes deep learning based on the property that cells sharing barcodes have identical progenitors.ResultsLineageVAE is a deep generative model that transforms scRNA-seq observations with identical lineage barcodes into sequential trajectories toward a common progenitor in a latent cell state space. This method enables the reconstruction of unobservable cell state transitions, historical transcriptomes, and regulatory dynamics at a single-cell resolution. Applied to hematopoiesis and reprogrammed fibroblast datasets, LineageVAE demonstrated its ability to restore backward cell state transitions and infer progenitor heterogeneity and transcription factor activity along differentiation trajectories.Availability and implementationThe LineageVAE model was implemented in Python using the PyTorch deep learning library. The code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/LzrRacer/LineageVAE/.
| S-EPMC11494380 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the USA, historical data on the period over which industrial swine farms have operated are usually only available at the county scale and released every 5 years via the USDA Census of Agriculture, leaving the history of the swine industry and its potential legacy effects on the environment poorly understood. We developed a changepoint-based workflow that recreates the construction timelines of swine farms, specifically by identifying the construction years of swine manure lagoons from historical Landsat 5 imagery for the period of 1984 to 2012. The study focused on the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, a major pork-producing state in the USA. The algorithm successfully predicted the year of swine waste lagoon construction (+ /- 1 year) with an accuracy of approximately 94% when applied to the study area. By estimating the year of construction of 3405 swine waste lagoons in NC, we increased the resolution of available information on the expansion of swine production from the county scale to spatially-explicit locations. We further analyzed how the locations of swine waste lagoons changed in proximity to water resources over time, and found a significant increase in swine waste lagoon distances to the nearest water feature across the period of record.
| S-EPMC8810989 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecombination rates vary at the level of the species, population and individual. Now recognized as a transient feature of the genome, recombination rates at a given locus can change markedly over time. Existing inferential methods, predominantly based on linkage disequilibrium patterns, return a long-term average estimate of past recombination rates. Such estimates can be misleading, but no analytical framework to infer recombination rates that have changed over time is currently available.ResultsWe apply coalescent modeling in conjunction with a suite of summary statistics to show that the recombination history of a locus can be reconstructed from a time series of genetic samples. More usefully, we describe a new method, based on n-tuple dataset subsampling, to infer past changes in recombination rate from DNA sequences taken at a single time point. This subsampling strategy can correctly assign simulated loci to constant, increasing and decreasing recombination models with an accuracy of 84%.ConclusionsWhile providing an important stepping-stone to determining past recombination rates, n-tuple subsampling still exhibits a moderate error rate. Theoretical limitations indicated by coalescent theory suggest that highly accurate inference of past recombination rates will remain challenging. Nevertheless, we show for the first time that reconstructing historic recombination rates is possible in principle.
| S-EPMC3605148 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The range of the Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) has decreased dramatically over the last 100 years. This species is still under extreme risk of extinction and conservation efforts are rigorous. Understanding the long-term dynamics of the population decline would be helpful to offer insight into the mechanism behind the decline and endangerment and improve conservation perspectives and strategies. Historical data collection has been the challenge for reconstructing the historical distribution. In China, new gazetteers having systematic compilation and considerable local ecological data can be considered as an important complementary for reconstruction. Therefore, we have set up a data set (mainly based on the new gazetteers) in order to identify the historical range of the Amur Leopard from the 1950s to 2014. The result shows that the Amur leopard was historically widely distributed with large populations in Northeastern China, but it presented a sharp decline after the 1970s. The decline appeared from the plains to the mountains and northeast to southwest since the 1950s. Long-term historical data, mainly from new gazetteers, demonstrates that such resources are capable of tracking species change through time and offers an opportunity to reduce data shortage and enhance understanding in conservation.
| S-EPMC4926640 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Natural history collections and tropical tree diversity are both treasure troves of biological and evolutionary information, but their accessibility for scientific study is impeded by a number of properties. DNA in historical specimens is generally highly fragmented, complicating the recovery of high-grade genetic material. Furthermore, our understanding of hyperdiverse, wide-spread tree assemblages is obstructed by extensive species ranges, fragmented knowledge of tropical tree diversity and phenology, and a widespread lack of species-level diagnostic characters, prohibiting the collecting of readily identifiable specimens which can be used to build, revise or strengthen taxonomic frameworks. This, in turn, delays the application of downstream conservation action. A sizable component of botanical collections are sterile-thus eluding identification and are slowing down progress in systematic treatments of tropical biodiversity. With rapid advances in genomics and bioinformatic approaches to biodiversity research, museomics is emerging as a new field breathing life into natural collections that have been built up over centuries. Using MIGseq (multiplexed ISSR genotyping by sequencing), we generated 10,000s of short loci, for both freshly collected materials and museum specimens (aged >100 years) of Lithocarpus-a widespread tropical tree genus endemic to the Asian tropics. Loci recovery from historical and recently collected samples was not affected by sample age and preservation history of the study material, underscoring the reliability and flexibility of the MIGseq approach. Phylogenomic inference and biogeographic reconstruction across insular Asia, highlights repeated migration and diversification patterns between continental regions and islands. Results indicate that co-occurring insular species at the extremity of the distribution range are not monophyletic, raising the possibility of multiple independent dispersals along the outer edge of Wallacea. This suggests that dispersal of large seeded tree genera throughout Malesia and across Wallacea may have been less affected by large geographic distances and the presence of marine barriers than generally assumed. We demonstrate the utility of MIGseq in museomic studies using non-model taxa, presenting the first range-wide genomic assessment of Lithocarpus and tropical Fagaceae as a proof-of-concept. Our study shows the potential for developing innovative genomic approaches to improve the capture of novel evolutionary signals using valuable natural history collections of hyperdiverse taxa.
| S-EPMC7244142 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Chrysotile-containing joint compound was commonly used in construction of residential and commercial buildings through the mid 1970s; however, these products have not been manufactured in the United States for more than 30 years. Little is known about actual human exposures to chrysotile fibers that may have resulted from use of chrysotile-containing joint compounds, because few exposure and no health-effects studies have been conducted specifically with these products. Because limited amounts of historical joint compounds are available (and the stability or representativeness of aged products is suspect), it is currently impossible to conduct meaningful studies to better understand the nature and magnitude of potential exposures to chrysotile that may have been associated with historical use of these products. Therefore, to support specific exposure and toxicology research activities, two types of chrysotile-containing joint compounds were produced according to original formulations from the late 1960s. To the extent possible, ingredients were the same as those used originally, with many obtained from the original suppliers. The chrysotile used historically in these products was primarily Grade 7RF9 from the Philip Carey mine. Because this mine is closed, a suitable alternate was identified by comparing the sizes and mineral composition of asbestos structures in a sample of what has been represented to be historical joint compound (all of which were chrysotile) to those in samples of three currently commercially available Grade 7 chrysotile products. The re-created materials generally conformed to original product specifications (e.g. viscosity, workability, crack resistance), indicating that these materials are sufficiently representative of the original products to support research activities.
| S-EPMC2565755 | biostudies-literature