Dataset Information

Latent time-varying factors in longitudinal analysis: a linear mixed hidden Markov model for heart rates.

ABSTRACT: Longitudinal data are often segmented by unobserved time-varying factors, which introduce latent heterogeneity at the observation level, in addition to heterogeneity across subjects. We account for this latent structure by a linear mixed hidden Markov model. It integrates subject-specific random effects and Markovian sequences of time-varying effects in the linear predictor. We propose an expectation?-maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation, based on data augmentation. It reduces to the iterative maximization of the expected value of a complete likelihood function, derived from an augmented dataset with case weights, alternated with weights updating. In a case study of the Survey on Stress Aging and Health in Russia, the model is exploited to estimate the influence of the observed covariates under unobserved time-varying factors, which affect the cardiovascular activity of each subject during the observation period.

SUBMITTER: Lagona F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4159441 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Latent time-varying factors in longitudinal analysis: a linear mixed hidden Markov model for heart rates.

Lagona Francesco F Jdanov Dmitri D Shkolnikova Maria M

Statistics in medicine 20140602 23

Longitudinal data are often segmented by unobserved time-varying factors, which introduce latent heterogeneity at the observation level, in addition to heterogeneity across subjects. We account for this latent structure by a linear mixed hidden Markov model. It integrates subject-specific random effects and Markovian sequences of time-varying effects in the linear predictor. We propose an expectationŰ-maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation, based on data augmentation. It reduce ...[more]

PMID: 24889355

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Project description:BackgroundThe Baum-Welch learning procedure for Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) provides a powerful tool for tailoring HMM topologies to data for use in knowledge discovery and clustering. A linear memory procedure recently proposed by Miklós, I. and Meyer, I.M. describes a memory sparse version of the Baum-Welch algorithm with modifications to the original probabilistic table topologies to make memory use independent of sequence length (and linearly dependent on state number). The original description of the technique has some errors that we amend. We then compare the corrected implementation on a variety of data sets with conventional and checkpointing implementations.ResultsWe provide a correct recurrence relation for the emission parameter estimate and extend it to parameter estimates of the Normal distribution. To accelerate estimation of the prior state probabilities, and decrease memory use, we reverse the originally proposed forward sweep. We describe different scaling strategies necessary in all real implementations of the algorithm to prevent underflow. In this paper we also describe our approach to a linear memory implementation of the Viterbi decoding algorithm (with linearity in the sequence length, while memory use is approximately independent of state number). We demonstrate the use of the linear memory implementation on an extended Duration Hidden Markov Model (DHMM) and on an HMM with a spike detection topology. Comparing the various implementations of the Baum-Welch procedure we find that the checkpointing algorithm produces the best overall tradeoff between memory use and speed. In cases where sequence length is very large (for Baum-Welch), or state number is very large (for Viterbi), the linear memory methods outlined may offer some utility.ConclusionOur performance-optimized Java implementations of Baum-Welch algorithm are available at http://logos.cs.uno.edu/~achurban. The described method and implementations will aid sequence alignment, gene structure prediction, HMM profile training, nanopore ionic flow blockades analysis and many other domains that require efficient HMM training with EM.

Dataset Information

Latent time-varying factors in longitudinal analysis: a linear mixed hidden Markov model for heart rates.

Publications

Latent time-varying factors in longitudinal analysis: a linear mixed hidden Markov model for heart rates.

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