Dataset Information

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics.

Methods/findings

Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD) and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and hosts developmental stages and to establish interactions between stages and phases of mosquito vectors in relation to vertebrate hosts for infection introduction in compartmental phases. An open-source modelling platforms, Universal Simulator and Qt integrated development environment were used to develop models in C++ programming language. Developed models include source codes for mosquito fecundity, host fecundity, water level, mosquito infection, host infection, interactions, and egg time. Extensible Markup Language (XML) files were used as recipes to integrate source codes in Qt creator with Universal Simulator plug-in. We observed that Floodwater Aedines and Culicine population continued to fluctuate with temperature and water level over simulation period while controlled by availability of host for blood feeding. Infection in the system was introduced by floodwater Aedines. Culicines pick infection from infected host once to amplify disease epidemic. Simulated mosquito population show sudden unusual increase between December 1997 and January 1998 a similar period when RVF outbreak occurred in Ngorongoro district.

Conclusion/significance

Findings presented here provide new opportunities for weather-driven RVF epidemic simulation modelling. This is an ideal approach for understanding disease transmission dynamics towards epidemics prediction, prevention and control. This approach can be used as an alternative source for generation of calibrated RVF epidemics data in different settings.

SUBMITTER: Mweya CN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4178157 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

Mweya Clement N CN Holst Niels N Mboera Leonard E G LE Kimera Sharadhuli I SI

PloS one 20140926 9

<h4>Background</h4>Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is weather dependent arboviral infection of livestock and humans. Population dynamics of mosquito vectors is associated with disease epidemics. In our study, we use daily temperature and rainfall as model inputs to simulate dynamics of mosquito vectors population in relation to disease epidemics.<h4>Methods/findings</h4>Time-varying distributed delays (TVDD) and multi-way functional response equations were implemented to simulate mosquito vectors and ho ...[more]

PMID: 25259792

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Project description:BackgroundThe impacts of vaccination on the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) have not been evaluated. We have developed a RVFV transmission model comprising two hosts-cattle as a separate host and sheep and goats as one combined host (herein after referred to as sheep)-and two vectors-Aedes species (spp) and Culex spp-and used it to predict the impacts of: (1) reactive vaccination implemented at various levels of coverage at pre-determined time points, (2) targeted vaccination involving either of the two host species, and (3) a periodic vaccination implemented biannually or annually before an outbreak.Methodology/principal findingsThe model comprises coupled vector and host modules where the dynamics of vectors and hosts are described using a system of difference equations. Vector populations are structured into egg, larva, pupa and adult stages and the latter stage is further categorized into three infection categories: susceptible, exposed and infectious mosquitoes. The survival rates of the immature stages (egg, larva and pupa) are dependent on rainfall densities extracted from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) for a Rift Valley fever (RVF) endemic site in Kenya over a period of 1827 days. The host populations are structured into four age classes comprising young, weaners, yearlings and adults and four infection categories including susceptible, exposed, infectious, and immune categories. The model reproduces the 2006/2007 RVF outbreak reported in empirical surveys in the target area and other seasonal transmission events that are perceived to occur during the wet seasons. Mass reactive vaccination strategies greatly reduce the potential for a major outbreak. The results also suggest that the effectiveness of vaccination can be enhanced by increasing the vaccination coverage, targeting vaccination on cattle given that this species plays a major role in the transmission of the virus, and using both periodic and reactive vaccination strategies.Conclusion/significanceReactive vaccination can be effective in mitigating the impacts of RVF outbreaks but practically, it is not always possible to have this measure implemented satisfactorily due to the rapid onset and evolution of RVF epidemics. This analysis demonstrates that both periodic and reactive vaccination ought to be used strategically to effectively control the disease.

Project description:BackgroundIn East Africa, epidemics of Rift Valley fever (RVF) occur in cycles of 5-15 years following unusually high rainfall. RVF transmission during inter-epidemic periods (IEP) generally passes undetected in absence of surveillance in mammalian hosts and vectors. We studied IEP transmission of RVF and evaluated the demographic, behavioural, occupational and spatial determinants of past RVF infection.MethodologyBetween March and August 2012 we collected blood samples, and administered a risk factor questionnaire among 606 inhabitants of 6 villages in the seasonally inundated Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. ELISA tests were used to detect RVFV IgM and IgG antibodies in serum samples. Risk factors were examined by mixed effects logistic regression.FindingsRVF virus IgM antibodies, indicating recent RVFV acquisition, were detected in 16 participants, representing 2.6% overall and in 22.5% of inhibition ELISA positives (n = 71). Four of 16 (25.0%) IgM positives and 11/71 (15.5%) of individuals with inhibition ELISA sero-positivity reported they had had no previous contact with host animals. Sero-positivity on inhibition ELISA was 11.7% (95% CI 9.2-14.5) and risk was elevated with age (odds ratio (OR) 1.03 per year; 95% CI 1.01-1.04), among milkers (OR 2.19; 95% CI 1.23-3.91), and individuals eating raw meat (OR 4.17; 95% CI 1.18-14.66). Households keeping livestock had a higher probability of having members with evidence of past infection (OR = 3.04, 95% CI = 1.42-6.48) than those that do not keep livestock.ConclusionThere is inter-epidemic acquisition of RVFV in Kilombero Valley inhabitants. In the wake of declining malaria incidence, these findings underscore the need for clinicians to consider RVF in the differential diagnosis for febrile illnesses. Several types of direct contact with livestock are important risk factors for past infection with RVFV in this study's population. However, at least part of RVFV transmission appears to have occurred through bites of infected mosquitoes.

Project description:BackgroundRift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne virus with serious implications for livestock health, human health, and the economy in Africa, and is suspected to be endemic in north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa. The vectors of RVFV in this area are poorly known, although several species, such as Aedes (Neomelaniconion) mcintoshi, Aedes (Neomelaniconion) circumluteolus, Aedes (Aedimorphus) durbanensis, and Culex (Lasioconops) poicilipes may be involved. The aim of the study was to determine the vertebrate blood meal sources of potential RVFV mosquito vectors in north-eastern KZN and to characterize the host-biting network.MethodsBlood-fed mosquitoes were collected monthly from November 2019 to February 2023 using a backpack aspirator, CO2-baited Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) miniature light traps and tent traps, in the vicinity of water bodies and livestock farming households. The mosquitoes were morphologically identified. DNA was extracted from individual mosquitoes and used as templates to amplify the vertebrate cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) and cytochrome b (cytb) genes using conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Amplicons were sequenced and queried in GenBank and the Barcode of Life Data systems to identify the vertebrate blood meal sources and confirm mosquito identifications. All mosquitoes were screened for RVFV using real time reverse transcription (RT)-PCR.ResultsWe identified the mammalian (88.8%) and avian (11.3%) blood meal sources from 409 blood-fed mosquitoes. Aedes circumluteolus (n = 128) made up the largest proportion of collected mosquitoes. Cattle (n = 195) and nyala (n = 61) were the most frequent domestic and wild hosts, respectively. Bipartite network analysis showed that the rural network consisted of more host-biting interactions than the reserve network. All mosquitoes tested negative for RVFV.ConclusionsSeveral mosquito species, including Ae. circumluteolus, and vertebrate host species, including cattle and nyala, could play a central role in RVFV transmission. Future research in this region should focus on these species to better understand RVFV amplification.

Dataset Information

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

Background

Methods/findings

Conclusion/significance

Publications

Simulation modelling of population dynamics of mosquito vectors for rift valley Fever virus in a disease epidemic setting.

Similar Datasets

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