Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Guo Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4180721 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality: a systematic evaluation.
Guo Yuming Y Gasparrini Antonio A Armstrong Ben B Li Shanshan S Tawatsupa Benjawan B Tobias Aurelio A Lavigne Eric E de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho Micheline M Leone Michela M Pan Xiaochuan X Tong Shilu S Tian Linwei L Kim Ho H Hashizume Masahiro M Honda Yasushi Y Guo Yue-Liang Leon YL Wu Chang-Fu CF Punnasiri Kornwipa K Yi Seung-Muk SM Michelozzi Paola P Saldiva Paulo Hilario Nascimento PH Williams Gail G
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20141101 6
<h4>Background</h4>Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously.<h4>Methods</h4>We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada ...[more]
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Project description:IntroductionOur study aims at identifying and quantifying the relationship between the cold and heat exposure and the risk of cardiovascular mortality through a systematic review and meta-analysis.Material and methodsA systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. Peer-reviewed studies about the temperature and cardiovascular mortality were retrieved in the MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Scopus databases from January 2000 up to the end of 2015. The pooled effect sizes of short-term effect were calculated for the heat exposure and cold exposure separately. Also, we assessed the dose-response relationship of temperature-cardiovascular mortality by a change in units of latitudes, longitude, lag days and annual mean temperature by meta-regression.ResultAfter screening the titles, abstracts and full texts, a total of 26 articles were included in the meta-analysis. The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased by 5% (RR, 1.055; 95% CI [1.050-1.060]) for the cold exposure and 1.3% (RR, 1.013; 95% CI [1.011-1.015]) for the heat exposure. The short-term effects of cold and heat exposure on the risk of cardiovascular mortality in males were 3.8% (RR, 1.038; 95% CI [1.034-1.043]) and 1.1%( RR, 1.011; 95% CI [1.009-1.013]) respectively. Moreover, the effects of cold and heat exposure on risk of cardiovascular mortality in females were 4.1% (RR, 1.041; 95% CI [1.037-1.045]) and 1.4% (RR, 1.014; 95% CI [1.011-1.017]) respectively. In the elderly, it was at an 8.1% increase and a 6% increase in the heat and cold exposure, respectively. The greatest risk of cardiovascular mortality in cold temperature was in the 14 lag days (RR, 1.09; 95% CI [1.07-1.010]) and in hot temperatures in the seven lag days (RR, 1.14; 95% CI [1.09-1.17]). The significant dose-response relationship of latitude and longitude in cold exposure with cardiovascular mortality was found. The results showed that the risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with each degree increased significantly in latitude and longitude in cold exposure (0.2%, 95% CI [0.006-0.035]) and (0.07%, 95% CI [0.0003-0.014]) respectively. The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with each degree increase in latitude in heat exposure (0.07%, 95% CI [0.0008-0.124]).ConclusionOur findings indicate that the increase and decrease in ambient temperature had a relationship with the cardiovascular mortality. To prevent the temperature- related mortality, persons with cardiovascular disease and the elderly should be targeted. The review has been registered with PROSPERO (registration number CRD42016037673).
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Project description:Background and objectivesHeat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research.MethodsThe electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis.ResultsA total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised.ConclusionsMost studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.
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Project description:Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China.We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities.Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050).Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.
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Project description:Diabetes is well-known as one of the many chronic diseases that affect different age groups. Currently, most studies that evaluated the effects of temperature on diabetes mortality focused on temperate and subtropical settings, but no study has been conducted to assess the relationship in a tropical setting. We conducted the first multi-city study carried out in tropical cities, which evaluated the temperature-diabetes relationship. We collected daily diabetes mortality (ICD E10-E14) of four Philippine cities from 2006 to 2011. Same period meteorological data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We used a generalized additive model coupled with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) in determining the relative risks. Results showed that both low and high temperatures pose greater risks among diabetics. Likewise, the study was able to observe the: (1) high risk brought about by low temperature, aside from the largely observed high risks by high temperature; and (2) protective effects in low temperature percentile. These results provide significant policy implications with strategies related to diabetes risk groups in relation to health service and care strategies.
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Project description:It is well-established that exposure to non-optimum temperatures adversely affects public health, with the negative impact varying with latitude, as well as various climatic and population characteristics. This work aims to assess the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, in Northern Greece. For this, a standard time-series over-dispersed Poisson regression was fit, along with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), using a maximum lag of 21 days, to capture the non-linear and delayed temperature-related effects. A U-shaped relationship was found between temperature and cardiorespiratory mortality for the overall population and various subgroups and the minimum mortality temperature was observed around the 65th percentile of the temperature distribution. Exposure to extremely high temperatures was found to put the highest risk of cardiorespiratory mortality in all cases, except for females which were found to be more sensitive to extreme cold. It is remarkable that the highest burden of temperature-related mortality was attributed to moderate temperatures and primarily to moderate cold. The elderly were found to be particularly susceptible to both cold and hot thermal stress. These results provide new evidence on the health response of the population to low and high temperatures and could be useful to local authorities and policy-makers for developing interventions and prevention strategies for reducing the adverse impact of ambient temperature.
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Project description:Geographic variation in body size is common within many animal species. The causes of this pattern, however, remain largely unexplored in most vertebrate groups. Bats are widely distributed globally owing to their ability of powered flight. Most bat species encounter a variety of climatic conditions across their distribution range, making them an ideal taxon for the study of ecogeographic patterns in body size. Here, we used adult least horseshoe bats, Rhinolophus pusillus, to test whether geographic variation in body size was determined by heat conservation, heat dissipation, climatic seasonality, or primary productivity. We measured body mass and head-body length for 246 adult bats from 12 allopatric colonies in China. We quantified the ecological conditions inhabited by each colony, including mean maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, and annual net primary productivity (ANPP). Body mass and head-body length, 2 of the most reliable indicators of body size, exhibited marked differences between colonies. After controlling for spatial autocorrelation, the mean minimum temperature of the coldest month explained most of the variation in body size among colonies, regardless of sex. The mean maximum temperature, climatic seasonality, and ANPP had limited power in predicting body size of males or females in comparison with mean minimum temperature. These results support the heat conservation hypothesis and suggest adaptive responses of body size to cold climates in cave-dwelling bats.
| S-EPMC7705506 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.MethodsWe collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature-mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.FindingsWe analysed 74,225,200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43-7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80-90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02-7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39-0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84-0·87) of total mortality.InterpretationMost of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.FundingUK Medical Research Council.
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Project description:BackgroundTypical thermoregulatory responses to elevated temperatures among healthy individuals include reduced blood pressure and perspiration. Individuals with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) are susceptible to systemic fluctuations caused by ambient temperature changes that may increase morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure (preSBP) and interdialytic weight gain (IDWG) can independently mediate the association between ambient temperature, all-cause hospital admissions (ACHA), and all-cause mortality (ACM).MethodsThe study population consisted of ESKD patients receiving hemodialysis treatments at Fresenius Medical Care facilities in Philadelphia County, PA, from 2011 to 2019 (n = 1981). Within a time-to-event framework, we estimated the association between daily maximum dry-bulb temperature (TMAX) and, as separate models, ACHA and ACM during warmer calendar months. Clinically measured preSBP and IDWG responses to temperature increases were estimated using linear mixed effect models. We employed the difference (c-c') method to decompose total effect models for ACHA and ACM using preSBP and IDWG as time-dependent mediators. Covariate adjustments for exposure-mediator and total and direct effect models include age, race, ethnicity, blood pressure medication use, treatment location, preSBP, and IDWG. We considered lags up to two days for exposure and 1-day lag for mediator variables (Lag 2-Lag 1) to assure temporality between exposure-outcome models. Sensitivity analyses for 2-day (Lag 2-only) and 1-day (Lag 1-only) lag structures were also conducted.ResultsBased on Lag 2- Lag 1 temporal ordering, 1 °C increase in daily TMAX was associated with increased hazard of ACHA by 1.4% (adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.014; 95% confidence interval, 1.007-1.021) and ACM 7.5% (adjusted HR, 1.075, 1.050-1.100). Short-term lag exposures to 1 °C increase in temperature predicted mean reductions in IDWG and preSBP by 0.013-0.015% and 0.168-0.229 mmHg, respectively. Mediation analysis for ACHA identified significant indirect effects for all three studied pathways (preSBP, IDWG, and preSBP + IDWG) and significant indirect effects for IDWG and conjoined preSBP + IDWG pathways for ACM. Of note, only 1.03% of the association between temperature and ACM was mediated through preSBP. The mechanistic path for IDWG, independent of preSBP, demonstrated inconsistent mediation and, consequently, potential suppression effects in ACHA (-15.5%) and ACM (-6.3%) based on combined pathway models. Proportion mediated estimates from preSBP + IDWG pathways achieved 2.2% and 0.3% in combined pathway analysis for ACHA and ACM outcomes, respectively. Lag 2 discrete-time ACM mediation models exhibited consistent mediation for all three pathways suggesting that 2-day lag in IDWG and preSBP responses can explain 2.11% and 4.41% of total effect association between temperature and mortality, respectively.ConclusionWe corroborated the previously reported association between ambient temperature, ACHA and ACM. Our results foster the understanding of potential physiological linkages that may explain or suppress temperature-driven hospital admissions and mortality risks. Of note, concomitant changes in preSBP and IDWG may have little intermediary effect when analyzed in combined pathway models. These findings advance our assessment of candidate interventions to reduce the impact of outdoor temperature change on ESKD patients.
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