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The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI, urbanization in 1980 and 2008. METHODS AND RESULTS:Country-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of population-based data. We analyzed the associations between risk factors and per capita national income, a measure of Western diet, and, for BMI, the percentage of the population living in urban areas. In 1980, there was a positive association between national income and population mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. By 2008, the slope of the association between national income and systolic blood pressure became negative for women and zero for men. Total cholesterol was associated with national income and Western diet in both 1980 and 2008. In 1980, BMI rose with national income and then flattened at ?Int$7000; by 2008, the relationship resembled an inverted U for women, peaking at middle-income levels. BMI had a positive relationship with the percentage of urban population in both 1980 and 2008. Fasting plasma glucose had weaker associations with these country macro characteristics, but it was positively associated with BMI. CONCLUSIONS:The changing associations of metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables indicate that there will be a global pandemic of hyperglycemia and diabetes mellitus, together with high blood pressure in low-income countries, unless effective lifestyle and pharmacological interventions are implemented.

SUBMITTER: Danaei G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4181853 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008.

Danaei Goodarz G Singh Gitanjali M GM Paciorek Christopher J CJ Lin John K JK Cowan Melanie J MJ Finucane Mariel M MM Farzadfar Farshad F Stevens Gretchen A GA Riley Leanne M LM Lu Yuan Y Rao Mayuree M Ezzati Majid M

Circulation 20130312 14

<h4>Background</h4>It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI, urbanization in 1980 and 2008.<h4>Methods and results</h4>Country-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of pop ...[more]

PMID: 23481623

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Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about population levels of energy expenditure, as national surveillance systems typically employ only crude measures. The National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) in the UK measured energy expenditure in a 10% subsample by gold-standard doubly labelled water (DLW).MethodsDLW-subsample participants from the NDNS (383 males, 387 females) aged 4-91 years were recruited between 2008 and 2015 (rolling programme). Height and weight were measured and body-fat percentage estimated by deuterium dilution.ResultsAbsolute total energy expenditure (TEE) increased steadily throughout childhood, ranging from 6.2 and 7.2 MJ/day in 4- to 7-year-olds to 9.7 and 11.7 MJ/day for 14- to 16-year-old girls and boys, respectively. TEE peaked in 17- to 27-year-old women (10.7 MJ/day) and 28- to 43-year-old men (14.4 MJ/day), before decreasing gradually in old age. Physical-activity energy expenditure (PAEE) declined steadily with age from childhood (87 kJ/day/kg in 4- to 7-year-olds) through to old age (38 kJ/day/kg in 71- to 91-year-olds). No differences were observed by time, region and macronutrient composition. Body-fat percentage was strongly inversely associated with PAEE throughout life, irrespective of expressing PAEE relative to body mass or fat-free mass. Compared with females with <30% body fat, females with >40% recorded 29 kJ/day/kg body mass and 18 kJ/day/kg fat-free mass less PAEE in analyses adjusted for age, geographical region and time of assessment. Similarly, compared with males with <25% body fat, males with >35% recorded 26 kJ/day/kg body mass and 10 kJ/day/kg fat-free mass less PAEE.ConclusionsThis first nationally representative study reports levels of human-energy expenditure as measured by gold-standard methodology; values may serve as a reference for other population studies. Age, sex and body composition are the main determinants of energy expenditure. Key Messages This is the first nationally representative study of human energy expenditure, covering the UK in the period 2008-2015. Total energy expenditure (MJ/day) increases steadily with age throughout childhood and adolescence, peaks in the 3rd decade of life in women and 4th decade of life in men, before decreasing gradually in old age. Physical activity energy expenditure (kJ/day/kg or kJ/day/kg fat-free mass) declines steadily with age from childhood to old age, more steeply so in males. Body-fat percentage is strongly inversely associated with physical activity energy expenditure. We found little evidence that energy expenditure varied by geographical region, over time, or by dietary macronutrient composition.

Dataset Information

The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008.

Publications

The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008.

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