Comparison of statistical and clinical predictions of functional outcome after ischemic stroke.
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ABSTRACT: Background
To determine whether the predictions of functional outcome after ischemic stroke made at the bedside using a doctor's clinical experience were more or less accurate than the predictions made by clinical prediction models (CPMs).Methods and findings
A prospective cohort study of nine hundred and thirty one ischemic stroke patients recruited consecutively at the outpatient, inpatient and emergency departments of the Western General Hospital, Edinburgh between 2002 and 2005. Doctors made informal predictions of six month functional outcome on the Oxford Handicap Scale (OHS). Patients were followed up at six months with a validated postal questionnaire. For each patient we calculated the absolute predicted risk of death or dependence (OHS≥3) using five previously described CPMs. The specificity of a doctor's informal predictions of OHS≥3 at six months was good 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94 to 0.97) and similar to CPMs (range 0.94 to 0.96); however the sensitivity of both informal clinical predictions 0.44 (95% CI: 0.39 to 0.49) and clinical prediction models (range 0.38 to 0.45) was poor. The prediction of the level of disability after stroke was similar for informal clinical predictions (ordinal c-statistic 0.74 with 95% CI 0.72 to 0.76) and CPMs (range 0.69 to 0.75). No patient or clinician characteristic affected the accuracy of informal predictions, though predictions were more accurate in outpatients.Conclusions
CPMs are at least as good as informal clinical predictions in discriminating between good and bad functional outcome after ischemic stroke. The place of these models in clinical practice has yet to be determined.
SUBMITTER: Thompson DD
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4192583 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:IntroductionStroke remains a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Effective and prompt prognostic evaluation is vital for determining the appropriate management strategy. Radiomics is an emerging noninvasive method used to identify the quantitative imaging indicators for predicting important clinical outcomes. This study was conducted to investigate and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting ischemic stroke prognosis using the modified Rankin scale (mRS).MethodsA total of 598 consecutive patients with subacute infarction confirmed by diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), from January 2018 to December 2019, were retrospectively assessed. They were assigned to the good (mRS ≤ 2) and poor (mRS > 2) functional outcome groups, respectively. Then, 399 patients examined by MR scanner 1 and 199 patients scanned by MR scanner 2 were assigned to the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Infarction lesions underwent manual segmentation on DWI, extracting 402 radiomic features. A radiomics nomogram encompassing patient characteristics and the radiomics signature was built using a multivariate logistic regression model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated in the training and validation cohorts. Ultimately, decision curve analysis was implemented to assess the clinical value of the nomogram. The performance of infarction lesion volume was also evaluated using univariate analysis.ResultsStroke lesion volume showed moderate performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.678. The radiomics signature, including 11 radiomics features, exhibited good prediction performance. The radiomics nomogram, encompassing clinical characteristics (age, hemorrhage, and 24 h National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score) and the radiomics signature, presented good discriminatory potential in the training cohort [AUC = 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.86], which was validated in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.73; 95% CI 0.63-0.82). In addition, it demonstrated good calibration in the training (p = 0.55) and validation (p = 0.21) cohorts. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical value of this nomogram.ConclusionThis novel noninvasive clinical-radiomics nomogram shows good performance in predicting ischemic stroke prognosis.
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Project description:BACKGROUND: The insula is a small but complex structure located in the depth of the sylvian fissure, covered by the frontal, parietal and temporal operculum. Ischemic strokes limited to the insula are rare and have not been well studied. Our objective is to better define the clinical presentation and outcome of insular ischemic strokes (IIS). METHODS: We reviewed the institutional prospective, consecutive stroke database from two centers to identify patients with IIS seen between 2008 and 2010. We also searched the Medline database using the keywords insula(r), infarction and stroke to identify previously published IIS cases confirmed by MRI. Minimal extension to an adjacent operculum or subinsular area was accepted. Clinicoradiological correlation was performed by distinguishing IIS involving the anterior (AIC) or posterior insular cortex (PIC). We collected clinical, demographic and radiological data. The outcome was determined using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). RESULTS: We identified 7 patients from our institutions and 16 previously published cases of IIS. Infarcts were limited to the AIC (n = 4) or the PIC (n = 12) or affected both (n = 7). The five most frequent symptoms were somatosensory deficits (n = 10), aphasia (n = 10), dysarthria (n = 10), a vestibular-like syndrome (n = 8) and motor deficits (n = 6). A significant correlation was found between involvement of the PIC and somatosensory manifestations (p = 0.04). No other statistically significant associations were found. IIS presentation resembled a partial anterior circulation infarct (n = 9), a lacunar infarct (n = 2) or a posterior circulation infarct (n = 2). However, most cases presented findings that did not fit with these classical patterns (n = 10). At the 6 month follow up, mRS was 0 in 8/23 (35%) patients, 1-2 in 7/23 (30%) and unknown in 8/23 (35%). CONCLUSIONS: IIS presentation is variable. Due to the confluence of functions in a restricted region, it results in multimodal deficits. It should be suspected when vestibular-like or motor but especially somatosensory, speech or language disturbances are combined in the same patient. The outcome of IIS is often favorable. Larger prospective studies are needed to better define the clinical presentation and outcome of IIS.
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Project description:Background and Purpose: Stroke-related functional risk scores are used to predict patients' functional outcomes following a stroke event. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of machine-learning algorithms for predicting functional outcomes in acute ischemic stroke patients after endovascular treatment. Methods: Data were from the Precise and Rapid Assessment of Collaterals with Multi-phase CT Angiography (PROVE-IT), an observational study of 614 ischemic stroke patients. Regression and machine learning models, including random forest (RF), classification and regression tree (CART), C5.0 decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), adaptive boost machine (ABM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, and logistic regression models were used to train and predict the 90-day functional impairment risk, which is measured by the modified Rankin scale (mRS) score > 2. The models were internally validated using split-sample cross-validation and externally validated in the INTERRSeCT cohort study. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and Brier score. Results: Of the 614 patients included in the training data, 249 (40.5%) had 90-day functional impairment (i.e., mRS > 2). The median and interquartile range (IQR) of age and baseline NIHSS scores were 77 years (IQR = 69-83) and 17 (IQR = 11-22), respectively. Both logistic regression and machine learning models had comparable predictive accuracy when validated internally (AUC range = [0.65-0.72]; MCC range = [0.29-0.42]) and externally (AUC range = [0.66-0.71]; MCC range = [0.34-0.42]). Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms and logistic regression had comparable predictive accuracy for predicting stroke-related functional impairment in stroke patients.
| S-EPMC7479334 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and Purpose- We sought to explore the effect of genetic imbalance on functional outcome after ischemic stroke (IS). Methods- Copy number variation was identified in high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism microarray data of IS patients from the CADISP (Cervical Artery Dissection and Ischemic Stroke Patients) and SiGN (Stroke Genetics Network)/GISCOME (Genetics of Ischaemic Stroke Functional Outcome) networks. Genetic imbalance, defined as total number of protein-coding genes affected by copy number variations in an individual, was compared between patients with favorable (modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2) and unfavorable (modified Rankin Scale score of ?3) outcome after 3 months. Subgroup analyses were confined to patients with imbalance affecting ohnologs-a class of dose-sensitive genes, or to those with imbalance not affecting ohnologs. The association of imbalance with outcome was analyzed by logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, stroke subtype, stroke severity, and ancestry. Results- The study sample comprised 816 CADISP patients (age 44.2±10.3 years) and 2498 SiGN/GISCOME patients (age 67.7±14.2 years). Outcome was unfavorable in 122 CADISP and 889 SiGN/GISCOME patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that increased genetic imbalance was associated with less favorable outcome in both samples (CADISP: P=0.0007; odds ratio=0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.95 and SiGN/GISCOME: P=0.0036; odds ratio=0.94; 95% CI, 0.91-0.98). The association was independent of age, sex, stroke severity on admission, stroke subtype, and ancestry. On subgroup analysis, imbalance affecting ohnologs was associated with outcome (CADISP: odds ratio=0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.95 and SiGN/GISCOME: odds ratio=0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.98) whereas imbalance without ohnologs lacked such an association. Conclusions- Increased genetic imbalance was associated with poorer functional outcome after IS in both study populations. Subgroup analysis revealed that this association was driven by presence of ohnologs in the respective copy number variations, suggesting a causal role of the deleterious effects of genetic imbalance.
| S-EPMC7441497 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Currently, few studies are reported on the composition of microbiota in stroke patients and the association with stroke prognosis. This study investigated the differing microbiota composition in stroke patients and confirmed the association of microbiota composition with poor functional outcome. Between January of 2018 and December of 2019, 198 patients with acute cerebral infarction were included in this study. For the case-control study, age and sex-matched normal healthy subjects (n = 200) were included when receiving their health screening examinations. We isolated bacterial extracellular membrane vesicles and extracted DNA from blood samples. Taxonomic assignments were performed by using the sequence reads of 16S rRNA genes following blood microbiota analysis. Statistical analysis was conducted appropriately by using Statistical Analysis System software. The mean age of the stroke patients were 63.7 ± 12.5 years, and the male sex was 58.5%. Of the total enrolled patients, poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Score ≥ 3) was noted in 19.7%. The principal component analysis of microbiota composition revealed significant differences between healthy control subjects and stroke patients. At the genus level, Aerococcaceae(f), ZB2(c), TM7-1(c), and Flavobacterium were significantly increased in stroke patients compared to the healthy controls, whereas Mucispirillum, rc4-4, Akkermansia, Clostridiales(o), Lactobacillus, and Stenotrophomonas were decreased considerably. For the functional outcome after ischemic stroke, Anaerococcus, Blautia, Dialister, Aerococcaceae(f), Propionibacterium, Microbacteriaceae(f), and Rothia were enriched in the group with good outcomes, whereas Ruminococcaceae(f) and Prevotella were enriched in the group with poor outcome. There was apparent dysbiosis of blood microbiota in patients with acute ischemic stroke compared to healthy people. Ruminococcaceae(f) and Prevotella were elevated in stroke patients with poor functional outcome.
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Project description: Not available
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Project description:BackgroundMixed data exist regarding the association between hyperglycemia and functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke when accounting for the impact of leptomeningeal collateral flow. We sought to determine whether collateral status modifies the association between treatment group and functional outcome in a subset of patients with large vessel occlusion enrolled in the Stroke Hyperglycemia Insulin Network Effort (SHINE) trial.MethodsIn this post-hoc analysis, we analyzed patients enrolled into the SHINE trial with anterior circulation large vessel occlusion who underwent imaging with CT angiography prior to glucose control treatment group assignment. The primary analysis assessed the degree to which collateral status modified the effect between treatment group and functional outcome as defined by the 90-day modified Rankin Scale score. Logistic regression was used to model the data, with adjustments made for thrombectomy status, age, post-perfusion thrombolysis in cerebral infarction (TICI) score, tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) use, and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score. Five SHINE trial centers contributed data for this analysis. Statistical significance was defined as a p-value < 0.05.ResultsAmong the 1151 patients in the SHINE trial, 57 with angiographic data were included in this sub-analysis, of whom 19 had poor collaterals and 38 had good collaterals. While collateral status had no effect (p = 0.855) on the association between glucose control treatment group and functional outcome, patients with good collaterals were more likely to have a favorable functional outcome (p = 0.001, OR 5.02; 95% CI 1.37-16.0).ConclusionsIn a post-hoc analysis using a subset of patients with angiographic data enrolled in the SHINE trial, collateral status did not modify the association between glucose control treatment group and functional outcome. However, consistent with prior studies, there was a significant association between good collateral status and favorable outcome in patients with large vessel occlusion stroke.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier is NCT01369069. Registration date is June 8, 2011.
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Project description:BackgroundVasoregulatory autoantibodies including autoantibodies targeting G-protein-coupled receptors might play a functional role in vascular diseases. We investigated the impact of vasoregulatory autoantibodies on clinical outcome after ischemic stroke.Methods and resultsData were used from the PROSCIS-B (Prospective Cohort With Incident Stroke-Berlin). Autoantibody-targeting receptors such as angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1R), endothelin-1 type A receptor, complement factor-3 and -5 receptors, vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 and -2, vascular endothelial growth factor A and factor B were measured. We explored associations of high antibody levels with (1) poor functional outcome defined as modified Rankin Scale >2 or Barthel Index <60 at 1 year after stroke, (2) Barthel Index scores over time using general estimating equations, and (3) secondary vascular events (recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction) or death up to 3 years using Cox proportional hazard models. We included 491 patients with ischemic stroke with data on autoantibody levels and outcome. In models adjusted for demographics and vascular risk factors, high autoantibody concentrations (quartile 4) targeting complement factor C3a receptor, vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-2, and vascular endothelial growth factor B were associated with poor functional outcome at 1 year: (odds ratio, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.1-3.6]; odds ratio, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.1-3.2]; and odds ratio, 2.1 [95% CI, 1.2-3.6], respectively) and with lower Barthel Index scores over 3 years (complement factor C3a receptor: adjusted β=-3.3 [95% CI, -5.7 to -0.5]; VEGF-B: adjusted β=-2.4 [95% CI, -4.8 to -0.06]). Patients with high autoantibody levels were not at higher risk for secondary vascular events or death.ConclusionsHigh levels of autoantibodies against vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-2, vascular endothelial growth factor B, and complement factor C3a receptor measured are associated with poor functional outcome after stroke but not with recurrent vascular events or death.RegistrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01363856.
| S-EPMC10727313 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Autonomic dysfunctions including impaired baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) can develop after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and may predispose patients to subsequent cardiovascular adverse events and serve as potential indicators of long-term mortality. This study aimed to determine the potential short-term prognostic significance of BRS after AIS. All patients admitted to Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital within 72 h after onset of first-ever AIS between April 2008 and December 2012 were enrolled. Autonomic evaluation with continuous 10-minute monitoring of beat-to-beat hemodynamic and intracranial parameters was performed within 1 week after stroke by using the Task Force Monitor and transcranial Doppler. The 176 enrolled AIS patients were divided into high-BRS and low-BRS groups. All but two enrolled patients (who died within 3 months after stroke) attended scheduled follow-ups. The high-BRS group had significantly lower National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores at 1 and 2 weeks after stroke and at discharge; lower modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after stroke; and lower rates of complications and stroke recurrence compared to the low-BRS group. This study provides novel evidence of the utility of BRS to independently predict outcomes after AIS. Furthermore, modifying BRS may hold potential in future applications as a novel therapeutic strategy for acute stroke.
| S-EPMC6462921 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo discover common genetic variants associated with poststroke outcomes using a genome-wide association (GWA) study.MethodsThe study comprised 6,165 patients with ischemic stroke from 12 studies in Europe, the United States, and Australia included in the GISCOME (Genetics of Ischaemic Stroke Functional Outcome) network. The primary outcome was modified Rankin Scale score after 60 to 190 days, evaluated as 2 dichotomous variables (0-2 vs 3-6 and 0-1 vs 2-6) and subsequently as an ordinal variable. GWA analyses were performed in each study independently and results were meta-analyzed. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, stroke severity (baseline NIH Stroke Scale score), and ancestry. The significance level was p < 5 × 10-8.ResultsWe identified one genetic variant associated with functional outcome with genome-wide significance (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-2 vs 3-6, p = 5.3 × 10-9). This intronic variant (rs1842681) in the LOC105372028 gene is a previously reported trans-expression quantitative trait locus for PPP1R21, which encodes a regulatory subunit of protein phosphatase 1. This ubiquitous phosphatase is implicated in brain functions such as brain plasticity. Several variants detected in this study demonstrated suggestive association with outcome (p < 10-5), some of which are within or near genes with experimental evidence of influence on ischemic stroke volume and/or brain recovery (e.g., NTN4, TEK, and PTCH1).ConclusionsIn this large GWA study on functional outcome after ischemic stroke, we report one significant variant and several variants with suggestive association to outcome 3 months after stroke onset with plausible mechanistic links to poststroke recovery. Future replication studies and exploration of potential functional mechanisms for identified genetic variants are warranted.
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