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Quantitative assessment of relative roles of drivers of acute respiratory diseases.

ABSTRACT: Several thousands of people, including children, suffer from acute respiratory disease (ARD) every year worldwide. Pro-active planning and mitigation for these diseases require identification of the major drivers in a location-specific manner. While the importance of air pollutants in ARD has been extensively studied and emphasized, the role of weather variables has been less explored. With Delhi with its large population and pollution as a test case, we examine the relative roles of air pollution and weather (cold days) in ARD. It is shown that both the number of cold days and air pollution play important roles in ARD load; however, the number of cold days emerges as the major driver. These conclusions are consistent with analyses for several other states in India. The robust association between ARD load and cold days provides basis for estimating and predicting ARD load through dynamical model, as well as impact of climate change.

SUBMITTER: Goswami P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4200410 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantitative assessment of relative roles of drivers of acute respiratory diseases.

Goswami Prashant P Baruah Jurismita J

Scientific reports 20141017

Several thousands of people, including children, suffer from acute respiratory disease (ARD) every year worldwide. Pro-active planning and mitigation for these diseases require identification of the major drivers in a location-specific manner. While the importance of air pollutants in ARD has been extensively studied and emphasized, the role of weather variables has been less explored. With Delhi with its large population and pollution as a test case, we examine the relative roles of air polluti ...[more]

PMID: 25322687

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Project description:ObjectScarlet fever is an acute respiratory infectious disease that endangers public health and imposes a huge economic burden. In this paper, we systematically studied its spatial and temporal evolution and explore its potential ecological drivers. The goal of this research is to provide a reference for analysis based on surveillance data of scarlet fever and other acute respiratory infectious illnesses, and offer suggestions for prevention and control.MethodThis research is based on a spatiotemporal multivariate model (Endemic-Epidemic model). Firstly, we described the epidemiology status of the scarlet fever epidemic in Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2019. Secondly, we used spatial autocorrelation analysis to understand the spatial pattern. Thirdly, we applied the endemic-epidemic model to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics by quantitatively decomposing cases into endemic, autoregressive, and spatiotemporal components. Finally, we explored potential ecological drivers that could influence the spread of scarlet fever.ResultsFrom 2016 to 2019, the incidence of scarlet fever in Sichuan Province varied much among cities. In terms of temporal distribution, there were 1-2 epidemic peaks per year, and they were mainly concentrated from April to June and October to December. In terms of transmission, the endemic and temporal spread were predominant. Our findings imply that the school holiday could help to reduce the spread of scarlet fever, and a standard increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was associated with 2.6 folds contributions to the epidemic among cities.ConclusionScarlet fever outbreaks are more susceptible to previous cases, as temporal spread accounted for major transmission in many areas in Sichuan Province. The school holidays and GDP can influence the spread of infectious diseases. Given that covariates could not fully explain heterogeneity, adding random effects was essential to improve accuracy. Paying attention to critical populations and hotspots, as well as understanding potential drivers, is recommended for acute respiratory infections such as scarlet fever. For example, our study reveals GDP is positively associated with spatial spread, indicating we should consider GDP as an important factor when analyzing the potential drivers of acute infectious disease.

Project description:Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) prognostication during the acute phase is often subjective among physicians and often affects treatment decisions. The present study explores objective imaging parameters using quantitative corticospinal tract (CST) fiber reconstruction during the acute phase of ICH and correlates these parameters with functional outcome and patient recovery. We prospectively enrolled nonsurgical spontaneous supratentorial ICH patients and obtained an MRI scan on day 5 ± 1. Q-space diffeomorphic reconstruction was performed using DSI Studio, and quantitative anisotropy (QA) was calculated. The CST was reconstructed based on QA. The dichotomized modified Rankin Scale score on day 90 (favorable outcome = 0-2) and Barthel Index (favorable recovery = 100 on day 90 or improvement between discharge and day 90 > 60%) were assessed. Thirty-three patients, median age 72 years (interquartile range (IQR) 64-83), 21 female (64%), 21 (64%) with lobar hemorrhage, median ICH volume on admission 15.0 (IQR 7.0-27.4) mL, were included. Sixteen patients (48%) had a favorable outcome and 24 (73%) had a favorable recovery. The mean number of ipsilesional reconstructed CST fiber pathways was higher in patients with favorable outcomes (153 (standard deviation (SD) 103) vs. 60 (SD 39), p = 0.003) and predicted outcome after adjustment (Exp(B) = 1.016 (95% CI = 1.002-1.030)). QA in the ipsilesional posterior limb of the internal capsule showed a trend towards an association with favorable outcome (Exp(B) = 1.194 (95% CI = 0.991-1.439 (adjusted))). The total (ipsilesional + contralesional) number of reconstructed fiber pathways was associated with favorable recovery (Exp(B) = 1.025 (95% CI = 1.003-1.047 (adjusted))). Quantitative tractography parameters assessed in the acute phase of ICH may represent a promising predictor of long-term outcome and recovery. This might facilitate prognostic evaluation and organization of rehabilitation.

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Quantitative assessment of relative roles of drivers of acute respiratory diseases.

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Quantitative assessment of relative roles of drivers of acute respiratory diseases.

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