Modelling the continental-scale spread of Schmallenberg virus in Europe: approaches and challenges.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gubbins S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4204989 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:A model previously developed for the wind-borne spread by midges of bluetongue virus in NW Europe in 2006 is here modified and applied to the spread of Schmallenberg virus in 2011. The model estimates that pregnant animals were infected 113 days before producing malformed young, the commonest symptom of reported infection, and explains the spatial and temporal pattern of infection in 70% of the 3,487 affected farms, most of which were infected by midges arriving through downwind movement (62% of explained infections), or a mixture of downwind and random movements (38% of explained infections), during the period of day (1600-2100 h, i.e. dusk) when these insects are known to be most active. The main difference with Bluetongue is the higher rate of spread of SBV, which has important implications for disease control.
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Project description:Malaria is one of the deadliest vector-borne diseases in the world. Researchers are developing new genetic and conventional vector control strategies to attempt to limit its burden. Novel control strategies require detailed safety assessment to ensure responsible and successful deployments. Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) and Anopheles coluzzii, two closely related subspecies within the species complex Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.), are among the dominant malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa. These two subspecies readily hybridise and compete in the wild and are also known to have distinct niches, each with spatially and temporally varying carrying capacities driven by precipitation and land use factors. We model the spread and persistence of a population-modifying gene drive system in these subspecies across sub-Saharan Africa by simulating introductions of genetically modified mosquitoes across the African mainland and its offshore islands. We explore transmission of the gene drive between the two subspecies that arise from different hybridisation mechanisms, the effects of both local dispersal and potential wind-aided migration to the spread, and the development of resistance to the gene drive. Given the best current available knowledge on the subspecies' life histories, we find that an introduced gene drive system with typical characteristics can plausibly spread from even distant offshore islands to the African mainland with the aid of wind-driven migration, with resistance beginning to take over within a decade. Our model accounts for regional to continental scale mechanisms, and demonstrates a range of realistic dynamics including the effect of prevailing wind on spread and spatio-temporally varying carrying capacities for subspecies. As a result, it is well-placed to answer future questions relating to mosquito gene drives as important life history parameters become better understood.
| S-EPMC9191746 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is a newly emerged orthobunyavirus that has caused widespread disease in cattle, sheep and goats in Europe. Like other orthobunyaviruses, SBV is characterized by a tripartite negative-sense RNA genome that encodes four structural and two non-structural proteins. This study showed that SBV has a wide in vitro host range, and that BHK-21 cells are a convenient host for both SBV propagation and assay by plaque titration. The SBV genome segments were cloned as cDNA and a three-plasmid rescue system was established to recover infectious virus. Recombinant virus behaved similarly in cell culture to authentic virus. The ORF for the non-structural NSs protein, encoded on the smallest genome segment, was disrupted by introduction of translation stop codons in the appropriate cDNA, and when this plasmid was used in reverse genetics, a recombinant virus that lacked NSs expression was recovered. This virus had reduced capacity to shut-off host-cell protein synthesis compared with the wild-type virus. In addition, the NSs-deleted virus induced interferon (IFN) in cells, indicating that, like other orthobunyaviruses, NSs functions as an IFN antagonist, most probably by globally inhibiting host-cell metabolism. The development of a robust reverse genetics system for SBV will facilitate investigation of its pathogenic mechanisms as well as the creation of attenuated strains that could be candidate vaccines.
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Project description:ObjectiveTo use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK.MethodsA mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19.ResultsImmediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone.ConclusionsA combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.
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Project description:A new strain of measles virus, D4-Hamburg, was imported from London to Hamburg in December 2008 and subsequently spread to Bulgaria, where an outbreak of >24,300 cases was observed. We analyzed spread of the virus to demonstrate the importance of addressing hard-to-reach communities within the World Health Organization European Region regarding access to medical care and vaccination campaigns. The D4-Hamburg strain appeared during 2009-2011 in Poland, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Greece, Romania, Turkey, Macedonia, Serbia, Switzerland, and Belgium and was repeatedly reimported to Germany. The strain was present in Europe for >27 months and led to >25,000 cases in 12 countries. Spread of the virus was prevalently but not exclusively associated with travel by persons in the Roma ethnic group; because this travel extends beyond the borders of any European country, measures to prevent the spread of measles should be implemented by the region as a whole.
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Project description:Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a severe helminth disease affecting humans, which is caused by the fox tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis. AE represents a serious public health issue in larger regions of China, Siberia, and other regions in Asia. In Europe, a significant increase in prevalence since the 1990s is not only affecting the historically documented endemic area north of the Alps but more recently also neighbouring regions previously not known to be endemic. The genetic diversity of the parasite population and respective distribution in Europe have now been investigated in view of generating a fine-tuned map of parasite variants occurring in Europe. This approach may serve as a model to study the parasite at a worldwide level.The genetic diversity of E. multilocularis was assessed based upon the tandemly repeated microsatellite marker EmsB in association with matching fox host geographical positions. Our study demonstrated a higher genetic diversity in the endemic areas north of the Alps when compared to other areas.The study of the spatial distribution of E. multilocularis in Europe, based on 32 genetic clusters, suggests that Europe can be considered as a unique global focus of E. multilocularis, which can be schematically drawn as a central core located in Switzerland and Jura Swabe flanked by neighbouring regions where the parasite exhibits a lower genetic diversity. The transmission of the parasite into peripheral regions is governed by a "mainland-island" system. Moreover, the presence of similar genetic profiles in both zones indicated a founder event.
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Project description:Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a major threat to human and animal health, with more than 80% of the global population being at risk of acquiring at least one major VBD. Being profoundly affected by the ongoing climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, modelling approaches become an essential tool to assess and compare multiple scenarios (past, present and future), and further the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is rapidly becoming the gold-standard method for this task. The purpose of this overview is to provide an insight of the use of ENM to assess the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. We have summarised some fundamental concepts and common approaches to ENM of VBDS, and then focused with a critical view on a number of crucial issues which are often disregarded when modelling the niches of VBDs. Furthermore, we have briefly presented what we consider the most relevant uses of ENM when dealing with VBDs. Niche modelling of VBDs is far from being simple, and there is still a long way to improve. Therefore, this overview is expected to be a useful benchmark for niche modelling of VBDs in future research.
| S-EPMC10141209 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Schmallenberg virus (SBV) emerged in Germany in 2011, spread rapidly across Europe, and almost disappeared in 2013. However, since late summer 2014, new cases have occurred in adult cattle. Full-genome analysis revealed some amino acid substitution differences from the first SBV sample. Viremia developed in experimentally infected sheep and cattle for 4-6 days.
| S-EPMC4480399 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In 2011, a novel Orthobunyavirus was identified in cattle and sheep in Germany and The Netherlands. This virus was named Schmallenberg virus (SBV). Later, presence of the virus was confirmed using real time RT-PCR in cases of congenital malformations of bovines and ovines in several European countries, including Belgium. In the absence of specific sequencing protocols for this novel virus we confirmed its presence in RT-qPCR positive field samples using DNase SISPA-next generation sequencing (NGS), a virus discovery method based on random amplification and next generation sequencing. An in vitro transcribed RNA was used to construct a standard curve allowing the quantification of viral RNA in the field samples. Two field samples of aborted lambs containing 7.66 and 7.64 log(10) RNA copies per µL total RNA allowed unambiguous identification of SBV. One sample yielded 192 SBV reads covering about 81% of the L segment, 56% of the M segment and 13% of the S segment. The other sample resulted in 8 reads distributed over the L and M segments. Three weak positive field samples (one from an aborted calf, two from aborted lambs) containing virus quantities equivalent to 4.27-4.89 log(10) RNA copies per µL did not allow identification using DNase SISPA-NGS. This partial sequence information was compared to the whole genome sequence of SBV isolated from bovines in Germany, identifying several sequence differences. The applied viral discovery method allowed the confirmation of SBV in RT-qPCR positive brain samples. However, the failure to confirm SBV in weak PCR-positive samples illustrates the importance of the selection of properly targeted and fresh field samples in any virus discovery method. The partial sequences derived from the field samples showed several differences compared to the sequences from bovines in Germany, indicating sequence divergence within the epidemic.
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Project description:West Nile virus is a widely spread arthropod-born virus, which has mosquitoes as vectors and birds as reservoirs. Humans, as dead-end hosts of the virus, may suffer West Nile Fever (WNF), which sometimes leads to death. In Europe, the first large-scale epidemic of WNF occurred in 1996 in Romania. Since then, human cases have increased in the continent, where the highest number of cases occurred in 2018. Using the location of WNF cases in 2017 and favorability models, we developed two risk models, one environmental and the other spatio-environmental, and tested their capacity to predict in 2018: 1) the location of WNF; 2) the intensity of the outbreaks (i.e. the number of confirmed human cases); and 3) the imminence of the cases (i.e. the Julian week in which the first case occurred). We found that climatic variables (the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the annual temperature range), human-related variables (rain-fed agriculture, the density of poultry and horses), and topo-hydrographic variables (the presence of rivers and altitude) were the best environmental predictors of WNF outbreaks in Europe. The spatio-environmental model was the most useful in predicting the location of WNF outbreaks, which suggests that a spatial structure, probably related to bird migration routes, has a role in the geographical pattern of WNF in Europe. Both the intensity of cases and their imminence were best predicted using the environmental model, suggesting that these features of the disease are linked to the environmental characteristics of the areas. We highlight the relevance of river basins in the propagation dynamics of the disease, as outbreaks started in the lower parts of the river basins, from where WNF spread towards the upper parts. Therefore, river basins should be considered as operational geographic units for the public health management of the disease.
| S-EPMC7790247 | biostudies-literature