Dataset Information

A marginal benefit approach for vaccinating influenza "superspreaders".

ABSTRACT: There is widespread recognition that interventions targeting "superspreaders" are more effective at containing epidemics than strategies aimed at the broaderHowever, little attention has been devoted to determining optimal levels of coverage for targeted vaccination strategies, given the nonlinear relationship between program scale and the costs and benefits of identifying and successfully administering vaccination to potential superspreaders.We developed a framework for such an assessment derived from a transmission model of seasonal influenza parameterized to emulate typical seasonal influenza epidemics in the US. We used this framework to estimate how the marginal benefit of expanded targeted vaccination changes with the proportion of the target population already vaccinated.The benefit of targeting additional superspreaders varies considerably as a function of both the baseline vaccination coverage and proximity to the herd immunity threshold. The general form of the marginal benefit function starts low, particularly for severe epidemics, increases monotonically until its peak at the point of herd immunity, and then plummets rapidly. We present a simplified transmission model, primarily designed to convey qualitative insight rather than quantitative precision. With appropriate contact data, future work could address more complex population structures, such as age structure and assortative mixing patterns. Our illustrative example highlights the general economic and epidemiological findings of our method but does not address intervention design, policy, and resource allocation issues related to practical implementation of this particular scenario.Our approach offers a means of estimating willingness to pay for search costs associated with targeted vaccination of superspreaders, which can inform policies regarding whether a targeted intervention should be implemented and, if so, up to what levels.

SUBMITTER: Skene KJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4209160 | biostudies-literature | 2014 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A marginal benefit approach for vaccinating influenza "superspreaders".

Skene Katherine J KJ Paltiel A David AD Shim Eunha E Galvani Alison P AP

Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 20140501 4

<h4>Background</h4>There is widespread recognition that interventions targeting "superspreaders" are more effective at containing epidemics than strategies aimed at the broader<h4>Population</h4>However, little attention has been devoted to determining optimal levels of coverage for targeted vaccination strategies, given the nonlinear relationship between program scale and the costs and benefits of identifying and successfully administering vaccination to potential superspreaders.<h4>Methods</h4 ...[more]

PMID: 24740238

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Project description:ObjectiveTo assess the reduction in the vaccine preventable burden of cancer in men if boys are vaccinated along with girls against oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV).DesignBayesian evidence synthesis approach used to evaluate the impact of vaccination against HPV types 16 and 18 on the burden of anal, penile, and oropharyngeal carcinomas among heterosexual men and men who have sex with men. The reduced transmission of vaccine-type HPV from vaccination of girls was assumed to lower the risk of HPV associated cancer in all men but not to affect the excess risk of HPV associated cancers among men who have sex with men.SettingGeneral population in the Netherlands.InterventionInclusion of boys aged 12 into HPV vaccination programmes.Main outcome measuresQuality adjusted life years (QALYs) and numbers needed to vaccinate.ResultsBefore HPV vaccination, 14.9 (95% credible interval 12.2 to 18.1) QALYs per thousand men were lost to vaccine preventable cancers associated with HPV in the Netherlands. This burden would be reduced by 37% (28% to 48%) if the vaccine uptake among girls remains at the current level of 60%. To prevent one additional case of cancer among men, 795 boys (660 to 987) would need to be vaccinated; with tumour specific numbers for anal, penile, and oropharyngeal cancer of 2162, 3486, and 1975, respectively. The burden of HPV related cancer in men would be reduced by 66% (53% to 805) if vaccine uptake among girls increases to 90%. In that case, 1735 boys (1240 to 2900) would need to be vaccinated to prevent an additional case; with tumour specific numbers for anal, penile, and oropharyngeal cancer of 2593, 29107, and 6484, respectively.ConclusionsMen will benefit indirectly from vaccination of girls but remain at risk of cancers associated with HPV. The incremental benefit of vaccinating boys when vaccine uptake among girls is high is driven by the prevention of anal carcinomas, which underscores the relevance of HPV prevention efforts for men who have sex with men.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The present study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of an influenza vaccination program for children in the Netherlands. This requires an evaluation of the long-term impact of such a program on the burden of influenza across all age groups, using a transmission model that accounts for the seasonal variability in vaccine effectiveness and the shorter duration of protection following vaccination as compared to natural infection. METHODS:We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis based on a stochastic dynamic transmission model that has been calibrated to reported GP visits with influenza-like illness in the Netherlands over 11 seasons (2003/2004 to 2014/2015). We analyzed the costs and effects of extending the current program with vaccination of children aged 2-16 years at 50% coverage over 20 consecutive seasons. We measured the effects in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and we adopted a societal perspective. RESULTS:The childhood vaccination program is estimated to have an average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €3944 per QALY gained and is cost-effective in the general population (across 1000 simulations; conventional Dutch threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained). The childhood vaccination program is not estimated to be cost-effective for the target-group itself with an average ICER of €57,054 per QALY gained. Uncertainty analyses reveal that these ICERs hide a wide range of outcomes. Even though introduction of a childhood vaccination program decreases the number of infections, it tends to lead to larger epidemics: in 23.3% of 1000 simulations, the childhood vaccination program results in an increase in seasons with a symptomatic attack rate larger than 5%, which is expected to cause serious strain on the health care system. In 6.4% of 1000 simulations, the childhood vaccination program leads to a net loss of QALYs. These findings are robust across different targeted age groups and vaccination coverages. CONCLUSIONS:Modeling indicates that childhood influenza vaccination is cost-effective in the Netherlands. However, childhood influenza vaccination is not cost-effective when only outcomes for the children themselves are considered. In approximately a quarter of the simulations, the introduction of a childhood vaccination program increases the frequency of seasons with a symptomatic attack rate larger than 5%. The possibility of an overall health loss cannot be excluded.

Dataset Information

A marginal benefit approach for vaccinating influenza "superspreaders".

Publications

A marginal benefit approach for vaccinating influenza "superspreaders".

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