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Genetic risk prediction and a 2-stage risk screening strategy for coronary heart disease.

ABSTRACT: Genome-wide association studies have identified several genetic variants associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic risk discrimination and reclassification and apply the results for a 2-stage population risk screening strategy for CHD.We genotyped 28 genetic variants in 24 124 participants in 4 Finnish population-based, prospective cohorts (recruitment years 1992-2002). We constructed a multilocus genetic risk score and evaluated its association with incident cardiovascular disease events. During the median follow-up time of 12 years (interquartile range 8.75-15.25 years), we observed 1093 CHD, 1552 cardiovascular disease, and 731 acute coronary syndrome events. Adding genetic information to conventional risk factors and family history improved risk discrimination of CHD (C-index 0.856 versus 0.851; P=0.0002) and other end points (cardiovascular disease: C-index 0.840 versus 0.837, P=0.0004; acute coronary syndrome: C-index 0.859 versus 0.855, P=0.001). In a standard population of 100 000 individuals, additional genetic screening of subjects at intermediate risk for CHD would reclassify 2144 subjects (12%) into high-risk category. Statin allocation for these subjects is estimated to prevent 135 CHD cases over 14 years. Similar results were obtained by external validation, where the effects were estimated from a training data set and applied for a test data set.Genetic risk score improves risk prediction of CHD and helps to identify individuals at high risk for the first CHD event. Genetic screening for individuals at intermediate cardiovascular risk could help to prevent future cases through better targeting of statins.

SUBMITTER: Tikkanen E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4210840 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Genetic risk prediction and a 2-stage risk screening strategy for coronary heart disease.

Tikkanen Emmi E Havulinna Aki S AS Palotie Aarno A Salomaa Veikko V Ripatti Samuli S

Arteriosclerosis, thrombosis, and vascular biology 20130418 9

<h4>Objective</h4>Genome-wide association studies have identified several genetic variants associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic risk discrimination and reclassification and apply the results for a 2-stage population risk screening strategy for CHD.<h4>Approach and results</h4>We genotyped 28 genetic variants in 24 124 participants in 4 Finnish population-based, prospective cohorts (recruitment years 1992-2002). We constructed a multilocu ...[more]

PMID: 23599444

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Project description:BackgroundA Genetic risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD) improves the ability of predicting coronary heart disease (CHD). It is unclear whether i) the use of a CAD genetic risk score is superior to the measurement of coronary artery calcification (CAC) for CHD risk assessment and ii) the CHD risk assessment using a CAD genetic risk score differs between men and women.MethodsWe included 4041 participants (age-range: 45-76 years, 1919 men) of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study without CHD or stroke at baseline. A standardized weighted CAD genetic risk score was constructed using 70 known genetic variants. The risk score was divided into quintiles (Q1-Q5). We specified low (Q1), intermediate (Q2-Q4) and high (Q5) genetic risk groups. Incident CHD was defined as fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke and coronary death. The association between the genetic risk score and genetic risk groups with incident CHD was assessed using Cox models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95%-confidence intervals (CI). The models were adjusted by age and sex (Model1), as well as by established CHD risk factors (RF) and CAC (Model2). The analyses were further stratified by sex and controlled for multiple testing.ResultsDuring a median follow-up time of 11.6 ± 3.7 years, 343 participants experienced CHD events (219 men). Per-standard deviation (SD) increase in the genetic risk score was associated with 18% increased risk for incident CHD (Model1: p = 0.002) which did not change after full adjustment (Model2: HR = 1.18 per-SD (p = 0.003)). In Model2 we observed a 60% increased CHD risk in the high (p = 0.009) compared to the low genetic risk group. Stratifying by sex, only men showed statistically significantly higher risk for CHD (Model2: HR = 1.23 per-SD (p = 0.004); intermediate: HR = 1.52 (p = 0.04) and high: HR = 1.88 (p = 0.008)) with no statistically significant risk observed in women.ConclusionOur results suggest that the CAD genetic risk score could be useful for CHD risk prediction, at least in men belonging to the higher genetic risk group, but it does not outbalance the value of CT-based quantification of CAC which works independently on both men and women and allows better risk stratification in both the genders.

Dataset Information

Genetic risk prediction and a 2-stage risk screening strategy for coronary heart disease.

Publications

Genetic risk prediction and a 2-stage risk screening strategy for coronary heart disease.

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