Dataset Information

Month of birth and risk of multiple sclerosis: confounding and adjustments.

ABSTRACT: A month of birth effect on multiple sclerosis (MS) risk has been reported from different countries. Recent critics have suggested that this finding is caused by confounding and that adequately adjusting for year and place of birth would markedly reduce this effect. All inhabitants in Norway are registered in the Norwegian Population Registry (Statistics Norway), making this an ideal area for performing adjusted analyses. Using the entire Norwegian population born between 1930 and 1979 (n = 2,899,260), we calculated the excess between observed and expected number of births for each month for 6649 Norwegian MS patients, 5711 mothers, 5247 fathers, and 8956 unaffected siblings. The analyses were adjusted for year of birth and place of birth according to the 19 counties in Norway. An unadjusted analysis revealed 13% fewer MS births than expected in February (P = 0.0015; Bonferroni corrected P = 0.018), 10% more in April (P = 0.0083; Bonferroni corrected P = 0.0996) and 15% more in December (P = 0.00058; Bonferroni corrected P = 0.007). Adjustments for both year and place of birth significantly altered our results for February and December, but even after these adjustments there were still 10% more MS births than expected in April (P = 0.00796; Bonferroni corrected P = 0.096). MS patients had a higher incidence of April births than their siblings (Fisher-exact test; P = 0.011), mothers (Fisher-exact test; P = 0.004), and fathers (Fisher-exact test; P = 0.011) without MS. Adjustments for confounding significantly affected our results. However, even after adjustments, there appears to be a persistent higher than expected frequency of April births in the MS population.

SUBMITTER: Torkildsen O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4212485 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Month of birth and risk of multiple sclerosis: confounding and adjustments.

Torkildsen Oivind O Aarseth Jan J Benjaminsen Espen E Celius Elisabeth E Holmøy Trygve T Kampman Margitta T MT Løken-Amsrud Kristin K Midgard Rune R Myhr Kjell-Morten KM Riise Trond T Grytten Nina N

Annals of clinical and translational neurology 20140204 2

A month of birth effect on multiple sclerosis (MS) risk has been reported from different countries. Recent critics have suggested that this finding is caused by confounding and that adequately adjusting for year and place of birth would markedly reduce this effect. All inhabitants in Norway are registered in the Norwegian Population Registry (Statistics Norway), making this an ideal area for performing adjusted analyses. Using the entire Norwegian population born between 1930 and 1979 (n = 2,899 ...[more]

PMID: 25356394

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Project description:BACKGROUND:There are inconsistent reports about multiple sclerosis (MS) risk among migrants from low to high MS risk geographical regions. This study assessed the overall MS incidence and evaluated seasonality in birth and subsequent MS risk later in the life in second generation of migrants born and lived in Kuwait. METHODS:We assessed the overall and gender-specific MS risk in second generation of migrants born and lived in Kuwait between January 1, 1950 and April 30, 2013. Data on migrants' MS patients diagnosed and registered in Kuwait National MS Registry were used. Hewitt's non-parametric test was carried out to evaluate the seasonality in migrants' MS births in comparison with the second generation migrants' births in general population. RESULTS:During the study period, an overall risk of migrants' MS births (per 100,000 non-Kuwaiti births in general population) was 23.8 (95% CI: 20.8 - 27.0). Gender-specific MS risk showed that non-Kuwaiti female had statistically significant (p?=?0.003) higher risk (28.6; 95% CI: 24.2 - 33.7) than non-Kuwaiti males (18.7; 95% CI: 15.1-23.0). The month-specific distribution of migrants' MS births compared with migrants' births in general population did not differ significantly (?2 goodness-of-fit test statistic?=?9.51, p?=?0.575). Hewitt's non-parametric test revealed an evidence of slight but statistically non-significant (p?=?0.090) increased tendency of migrants' MS births during September through February. CONCLUSIONS:The proportion of migrants' MS births (per 100,000 migrants' births in general population) over the study period was 23.8 (95% CI: 20.8 - 27.0), which was statistically significantly higher than the previously reported Kuwaiti national MS births (16.2; 95% CI: 15.1-17.4) in Kuwait. Non-parametric analysis showed slight but statistically non-significant increased tendency of migrants' MS births from September through February. Knowledge of MS risk factors and how and when they act among genetically vulnerable individuals from gestation to early adulthood will help design prevention strategies.

Project description:BackgroundUsing observational data to assess the relative effectiveness of alternative cancer treatments is limited by patient selection into treatment, which often biases interpretation of outcomes. We evaluated methods for addressing confounding in treatment and survival of patients with early-stage prostate cancer in observational data and compared findings with those from a benchmark randomized clinical trial.MethodsWe selected 14 302 early-stage prostate cancer patients who were aged 66-74 years and had been treated with radical prostatectomy or conservative management from linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data from January 1, 1995, through December 31, 2003. Eligibility criteria were similar to those from a clinical trial used to benchmark our analyses. Survival was measured through December 31, 2007, by use of Cox proportional hazards models. We compared results from the benchmark trial with results from models with observational data by use of traditional multivariable survival analysis, propensity score adjustment, and instrumental variable analysis.ResultsProstate cancer patients receiving conservative management were more likely to be older, nonwhite, and single and to have more advanced disease than patients receiving radical prostatectomy. In a multivariable survival analysis, conservative management was associated with greater risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27 to 2.00) and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.35 to 1.59) than radical prostatectomy. Propensity score adjustments resulted in similar patient characteristics across treatment groups, although survival results were similar to traditional multivariable survival analyses. Results for the same comparison from the instrumental variable approach, which theoretically equalizes both observed and unobserved patient characteristics across treatment groups, differed from the traditional multivariable and propensity score results but were consistent with findings from the subset of elderly patient with early-stage disease in the trial (ie, conservative management vs radical prostatectomy: for prostate cancer-specific mortality, HR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.08 to 6.73; for all-cause mortality, HR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.46 to 2.59).ConclusionInstrumental variable analysis may be a useful technique in comparative effectiveness studies of cancer treatments if an acceptable instrument can be identified.

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Month of birth and risk of multiple sclerosis: confounding and adjustments.

Publications

Month of birth and risk of multiple sclerosis: confounding and adjustments.

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