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Surrogate measures and consistent surrogates.

ABSTRACT: Surrogates which allow one to predict the effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest from the effect of the treatment on the surrogate are of importance when it is difficult or expensive to measure the primary outcome. Unfortunately, the use of such surrogates can give rise to paradoxical situations in which the effect of the treatment on the surrogate is positive, the surrogate and outcome are strongly positively correlated, but the effect of the treatment on the outcome is negative, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the "surrogate paradox." New results are given for consistent surrogates that extend the existing literature on sufficient conditions that ensure the surrogate paradox is not manifest. Specifically, it is shown that for the surrogate paradox to be manifest it must be the case that either there is (i) a direct effect of treatment on the outcome not through the surrogate and in the opposite direction as that through the surrogate or (ii) confounding for the effect of the surrogate on the outcome, or (iii) a lack of transitivity so that treatment does not positively affect the surrogate for all the same individuals for whom the surrogate positively affects the outcome. The conditions for consistent surrogates and the results of the article are important because they allow investigators to predict the direction of the effect of the treatment on the outcome simply from the direction of the effect of the treatment on the surrogate. These results on consistent surrogates are then related to the four approaches to surrogate outcomes described by Joffe and Greene (2009, Biometrics 65, 530-538) to assess whether the standard criteria used by these approaches to assess whether a surrogate is "good" suffice to avoid the surrogate paradox.

SUBMITTER: Vanderweele TJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4221255 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Surrogate measures and consistent surrogates.

Vanderweele Tyler J TJ

Biometrics 20130901 3

Surrogates which allow one to predict the effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest from the effect of the treatment on the surrogate are of importance when it is difficult or expensive to measure the primary outcome. Unfortunately, the use of such surrogates can give rise to paradoxical situations in which the effect of the treatment on the surrogate is positive, the surrogate and outcome are strongly positively correlated, but the effect of the treatment on the outcome is negative, a ...[more]

PMID: 24073861

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Project description:Background:In July 2018, the FDA first published a table listing all surrogate measures that it has used, and may accept for future use, in regulatory approval. However, the strength of surrogacy for those measures was not formally assessed. Using the case example of breast cancer, we aimed to evaluate the strength of correlation of surrogate measures listed in the FDA's Table with overall survival. Methods:This cross-sectional study of the FDA's Table of Surrogate Endpoints was conducted in May 2019. All surrogate measures listed in the FDA table as appropriate for accelerated or regular approval for breast cancer were extracted. We identified studies evaluating the correlation of treatment benefit in the surrogate with treatment benefit in overall survival and extracted results from the correlation analysis. Findings:Five surrogate endpoints were listed for breast cancer in the FDA website: pathological complete response rates (pCR), event-free survival (EFS), disease-free survival (DFS), objective response rates (ORR), and progression-free survival (PFS), of which pCR was listed as appropriate only for accelerated approval, while the rest were considered appropriate for accelerated or regular approval. No correlation study evaluated the correlation of treatment effects on EFS with that on OS. The results from correlation studies evaluating pCR, DFS, ORR, and PFS suggest that the treatment effects on none of these surrogate measures were strongly correlated with treatment effects on OS (r<0.85 or R2 < 0.7, except for DFS in HER2 positive early breast cancer (R2 = 0.75). Interpretation:Using breast cancer as an example, we evaluated the underlying evidence for the surrogate endpoints for solid tumors listed in the FDA's Table of Surrogate Endpoints and found weak or missing correlations of treatment effects on these surrogates with treatment effects on OS . Surrogate measures should be predictive of clinical benefit to be useful in supporting regular FDA approval. Funding:Work on this project was funded by the Arnold Ventures. Dr. Kesselheim is also supported by the Harvard-MIT Center for Regulatory Science. The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Project description:BackgroundThe choice of outcome measure is a critical decision in the design of any clinical trial, but many Phase III clinical trials in critical care fail to detect a difference between the interventions being compared. This may be because the surrogate outcomes used to show beneficial effects in early phase trials (which informed the design of the subsequent Phase III trials) are not valid guides to the differences between the interventions for the main outcomes of the Phase III trials. We undertook a systematic review (1) to generate a list of outcome measures used in critical care trials, (2) to determine the variability in the outcome reporting in the respiratory subgroup and (3) to create a smaller list of potential early phase endpoints in the respiratory subgroup.MethodsData related to outcomes were extracted from studies published in the six top-ranked critical care journals between 2010 and 2020. Outcomes were classified into subcategories and categories. A subset of early phase endpoints relevant to the respiratory subgroup was selected for further investigation. The variability of the outcomes and the variability in reporting was investigated.ResultsA total of 6905 references were retrieved and a total of 294 separate outcomes were identified from 58 studies. The outcomes were then classified into 11 categories and 66 subcategories. A subset of 22 outcomes relevant for the respiratory group were identified as potential early phase outcomes. The summary statistics, time points and definitions show the outcomes are analysed and reported in different ways.ConclusionThe outcome measures were defined, analysed and reported in a variety of ways. This creates difficulties for synthesising data in systematic reviews and planning definitive trials. This review once again highlights an urgent need for standardisation and validation of surrogate outcomes reported in critical care trials. Future work should aim to validate and develop a core outcome set for surrogate outcomes in critical care trials.

Project description:BackgroundWith the rising prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in obese children, it is becoming imperative to detect disturbed glucose metabolism as early as possible in order to prevent T2D development.Subjects/methodsCross-sectional study of 92 obese children (median age 11.7 years, 51% female) and 7 lean children (median age 11.4 years, 57% female) who underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in a tertiary pediatric care center. Glucose tolerance was assessed and different indices for β-cell function, insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion were calculated.ResultsNineteen obese children were identified with prediabetes (PD, 12 impaired glucose tolerance, 4 increased fasting glucose and 3 combined). Compared with the 73 obese children with normal glucose tolerance (nGT), subjects with PD had higher insulin resistance, but lower insulin sensitivity and β-cell function, although their glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels were comparable. The Whole Body Insulin Sensitivity Index (WBISI) and β-cell function by Insulin Secretion-Sensitivity Index-2 (ISSI-2) strongly correlated with the OGTT glucose area under the curve 0-120 min (r = 0.392, p < 0.0002; r = 0.547, p < 0.0001, respectively). When testing the relation between early insulin response during OGTT by insulinogenic index and insulin sensitivity assessed by WBISI, a hyperbolic relationship between insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity was found. The calculated disposition index was lower in subjects with PD vs. nGT (median 459 vs. 792, p = 0.004). We identified the OGTT 30-min/120-min insulin ratio as a simple marker, which is significantly lower in obese children with vs. without PD (median 0.87 vs. 1.29, p = 0.021) and which has a better sensitivity and specificity for detecting PD than HbA1c among obese children.ConclusionsChildren with identified PD had changes of several markers for β-cell function, insulin sensitivity and resistance before changes in HbA1c occurred. The lower disposition index indicates that these children have already inadequate β-cell compensation for the degree of insulin resistance.

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Surrogate measures and consistent surrogates.

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Surrogate measures and consistent surrogates.

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