Dataset Information

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

ABSTRACT: Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and/or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical properties. In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend during the 20(th) century, with an especially striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. "warming hole"). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF), longwave cloud forcing (LWCF), aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor as well as global coupled climate models to explore the attribution of the "warming hole". We find that the observed cooling trend in summer Tmax can be attributed mainly to SWCF due to aerosols with offset from the greenhouse effect of precipitable water vapor. A global coupled climate model reveals that the observed "warming hole" can be produced only when the aerosol fields are simulated with a reasonable degree of accuracy as this is necessary for accurate simulation of SWCF over the region. These results provide compelling evidence of the role of the aerosol indirect effect in cooling regional climate on the Earth. Our results reaffirm that LWCF can warm both winter Tmax and Tmin.

SUBMITTER: Yu S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4221782 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

Yu Shaocai S Alapaty Kiran K Mathur Rohit R Pleim Jonathan J Zhang Yuanhang Y Nolte Chris C Eder Brian B Foley Kristen K Nagashima Tatsuya T

Scientific reports 20141106

Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and/or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical properties. In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend during the 20(th) century, with an especially striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. "warming hole"). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing (SW ...[more]

PMID: 25373416

Similar Datasets

Project description:Aerosol acidity governs several key processes in aerosol physics and chemistry, thus affecting aerosol mass and composition and ultimately climate and human health. Previous studies have reported aerosol pH values separately in China and the United States (USA), implying different aerosol acidity between these two countries. However, there is debate about whether mass concentration or chemical composition is the more important driver of differences in aerosol acidity. A full picture of the pH difference and the underlying mechanisms responsible is hindered by the scarcity of simultaneous measurements of particle composition and gaseous species, especially in China. Here we conduct a comprehensive assessment of aerosol acidity in China and the USA using extended ground-level measurements and regional chemical transport model simulations. We show that aerosols in China are significantly less acidic than in the USA, with pH values 1-2 units higher. Based on a proposed multivariable Taylor series method and a series of sensitivity tests, we identify major factors leading to the pH difference. Compared to the USA, China has much higher aerosol mass concentrations (gas + particle, by a factor of 8.4 on average) and a higher fraction of total ammonia (gas + particle) in the aerosol composition. Our assessment shows that the differences in mass concentrations and chemical composition play equally important roles in driving the aerosol pH difference between China and the USA - increasing the aerosol mass concentrations (by a factor of 8.4) but keeping the relative component contributions the same in the USA as the level in China increases the aerosol pH by ~1.0 units and further shifting the chemical composition from US conditions to China's that are richer in ammonia increases the aerosol pH by ~0.9 units. Therefore, China being both more polluted than the USA and richer in ammonia explains the aerosol pH difference. The difference in aerosol acidity highlighted in the present study implies potential differences in formation mechanisms, physicochemical properties, and toxicity of aerosol particles in these two countries.

Project description:BackgroundTraumatic brachial plexus injuries (BPIs) disproportionately affect young, able-bodied individuals. Beyond direct costs associated with medical treatment, there are far-reaching indirect costs related to disability and lost productivity. Our objective was to estimate per-patient indirect cost associated with BPI.MethodsWe estimated indirect costs as the sum of (1) short-term wage loss, (2) long-term wage loss, and (3) disability payments. Short-term (6-month) wage loss was the product of missed work days and the average earnings per day. The probability of return to work was derived from a systematic review of the literature, and long-term wage loss and disability payments were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to perform a sensitivity analysis of long-term wage loss by varying age, sex, and return to work simultaneously. Disability benefits were estimated from U.S. Social Security Administration data. All cost estimates are in 2018 U.S. dollars.ResultsA systematic review of the literature demonstrated that the patients with BPI had a mean age of 26.4 years, 90.5% were male, and manual labor was the most represented occupation. On the basis on these demographics, our base case was a 26-year-old American man working as a manual laborer prior to BPI, with an annual wage of $36,590. Monte Carlo simulation estimated a short-term wage loss of $22,740, a long-term wage loss of $737,551, and disability benefits of $353,671. The mean total indirect cost of traumatic BPI in the Monte Carlo simulations was $1,113,962 per patient over the post-injury lifetime (median: $801,723, interquartile range: $22,740 to $2,350,979). If the probability of the patient returning to work at a different, lower-paying job was doubled, the per-patient total indirect cost was $867,987.ConclusionsBPI can have a far-reaching economic impact on both individuals and society. If surgical reconstruction enables patients with a BPI to return to work, the indirect cost of this injury decreases.Level of evidenceEconomic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Dataset Information

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

Publications

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets