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World population stabilization unlikely this century.

ABSTRACT: The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.

SUBMITTER: Gerland P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4230924 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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World population stabilization unlikely this century.

Gerland Patrick P Raftery Adrian E AE Sevčíková Hana H Li Nan N Gu Danan D Spoorenberg Thomas T Alkema Leontine L Fosdick Bailey K BK Chunn Jennifer J Lalic Nevena N Bay Guiomar G Buettner Thomas T Heilig Gerhard K GK Wilmoth John J

Science (New York, N.Y.) 20140918 6206

The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Mu ...[more]

PMID: 25301627

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Project description:Background and aimsEvaluation of population projection matrices (PPMs) that are focused on asymptotically based properties of populations is a commonly used approach to evaluate projected dynamics of managed populations. Recently, a set of tools for evaluating the properties of transient dynamics has been expanded to evaluate PPMs and to consider the dynamics of populations prior to attaining the stable-stage distribution, a state that may never be achieved in disturbed or otherwise ephemeral habitats or persistently small populations. This study re-evaluates data for a tropical orchid and examines the value of including such analyses in an integrative approach.MethodsSix small populations of Lepanthes rubripetala were used as a model system and the R software package popdemo was used to produce estimates of the indices for the asymptotic growth rate (lambda), sensitivities, reactivity, first-time step attenuation, maximum amplification, maximum attenuation, maximal inertia and maximal attenuation. The response in lambda to perturbations of demographic parameters using transfer functions and multiple perturbations on growth, stasis and fecundity were also determined. The results were compared with previously published asymptotic indices.Key resultsIt was found that combining asymptotic and transient dynamics expands the understanding of possible population changes. Comparison of the predicted density from reactivity and first-time step attenuation with the observed change in population size in two orchid populations showed that the observed density was within the predicted range. However, transfer function analysis suggests that the traditional approach of measuring perturbation of growth rates and persistence (inertia) may be misleading and is likely to result in erroneous management decisions.ConclusionsBased on the results, an integrative approach is recommended using traditional PPMs (asymptotic processes) with an evaluation of the diversity of dynamics that may arise when populations are not at a stable-stage distribution (transient processes). This method is preferable for designing rapid and efficient interventions after disturbances, and for developing strategies to establish new populations.

Project description:Ocean-going ships were key to rising maritime economies of the Early Modern period, and understanding how they were built is critical to grasp the challenges faced by shipwrights and merchant seafarers. Shipwreck timbers hold material evidence of the dynamic interplay of wood supplies, craftmanship, and evolving ship designs that helped shape the Early Modern world. Here we present the results of dendroarchaeological research carried out on Batavia's wreck timbers, currently on display at the Western Australian Shipwrecks Museum in Fremantle. Built in Amsterdam in 1628 CE and wrecked on its maiden voyage in June 1629 CE in Western Australian waters, Batavia epitomises Dutch East India Company (Verenigde Oostindische Compagnie, or VOC) shipbuilding. In the 17th century, the VOC grew to become the first multinational trading enterprise, prompting the rise of the stock market and modern capitalism. Oak (Quercus sp.) was the preferred material for shipbuilding in northern and western Europe, and maritime nations struggled to ensure sufficient supplies to meet their needs and sustain their ever-growing mercantile fleets and networks. Our research illustrates the compatibility of dendrochronological studies with musealisation of shipwreck assemblages, and the results demonstrate that the VOC successfully coped with timber shortages in the early 17th century through diversification of timber sources (mainly Baltic region, Lübeck hinterland in northern Germany, and Lower Saxony in northwest Germany), allocation of sourcing regions to specific timber products (hull planks from the Baltic and Lübeck, framing elements from Lower Saxony), and skillful woodworking craftmanship (sapwood was removed from all timber elements). These strategies, combined with an innovative hull design and the use of wind-powered sawmills, allowed the Dutch to produce unprecedented numbers of ocean-going ships for long-distance voyaging and interregional trade in Asia, proving key to their success in 17th-century world trade.

Project description:Background: In their landmark report on the "Principles and Practice of Screening for Disease" (1968), Wilson and Jungner noted that the practice of screening is just as important for securing beneficial outcomes and avoiding harms as the formulation of principles. Many jurisdictions have since established various kinds of "screening governance organizations" to provide oversight of screening practice. Yet to date there has been relatively little reflection on the nature and organization of screening governance itself, or on how different governance arrangements affect the way screening is implemented and perceived and the balance of benefits and harms it delivers. Methods: An international expert policy workshop convened by the three lead authors. Results: While effective governance is essential to promote beneficial screening practices and avoid attendant harms, screening governance organizations face enduring challenges. These challenges are social and ethical as much as technical. Evidence-based adjudication of the benefits and harms of population screening must take account of factors that inform the production and interpretation of evidence, including the divergent professional, financial and personal commitments of stakeholders. Similarly, when planning and overseeing organized screening programs, screening governance organizations must persuade or compel multiple stakeholders to work together to a common end. Screening governance organizations in different jurisdictions vary widely in how they are constituted, how they relate to other interested organizations and actors, and what powers and authority they wield. Yet we know little about how these differences affect the way screening is implemented, and with what consequences. Conclusions: Systematic research into how screening governance is organized in different jurisdictions would facilitate policy learning to address enduring challenges. Even without such research, informal exchange and sharing of experiences between screening governance organizations can deliver invaluable insights into the social as well as the technical aspects of governance.

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World population stabilization unlikely this century.

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World population stabilization unlikely this century.

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