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Estimating the effectiveness in HIV prevention trials by incorporating the exposure process: application to HPTN 035 data.

ABSTRACT: Estimating the effectiveness of a new intervention is usually the primary objective for HIV prevention trials. The Cox proportional hazard model is mainly used to estimate effectiveness by assuming that participants share the same risk under the covariates and the risk is always non-zero. In fact, the risk is only non-zero when an exposure event occurs, and participants can have a varying risk to transmit due to varying patterns of exposure events. Therefore, we propose a novel estimate of effectiveness adjusted for the heterogeneity in the magnitude of exposure among the study population, using a latent Poisson process model for the exposure path of each participant. Moreover, our model considers the scenario in which a proportion of participants never experience an exposure event and adopts a zero-inflated distribution for the rate of the exposure process. We employ a Bayesian estimation approach to estimate the exposure-adjusted effectiveness eliciting the priors from the historical information. Simulation studies are carried out to validate the approach and explore the properties of the estimates. An application example is presented from an HIV prevention trial.

SUBMITTER: Zhang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4239192 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating the effectiveness in HIV prevention trials by incorporating the exposure process: application to HPTN 035 data.

Zhang Jingyang J Brown Elizabeth R ER

Biometrics 20140520 3

Estimating the effectiveness of a new intervention is usually the primary objective for HIV prevention trials. The Cox proportional hazard model is mainly used to estimate effectiveness by assuming that participants share the same risk under the covariates and the risk is always non-zero. In fact, the risk is only non-zero when an exposure event occurs, and participants can have a varying risk to transmit due to varying patterns of exposure events. Therefore, we propose a novel estimate of effec ...[more]

PMID: 24845658

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Project description:Use of HIV prevention methods may vary for women by types of sexual partners. In a microbicide safety and effectiveness trial (HPTN 035) differences in adherence to a microbicide study gel were compared between women with new versus ongoing partnerships over time. 1,757 women in the three HPTN 035 trial's arms completed the Follow-up Partner Status (FPS) questionnaire at their last study visit. Women married at baseline were asked if they had the same husband, new husband or new partner. Unmarried women were asked if they had changed partners or married. Self-reported gel adherence during the last sex act was compared at each quarterly visit between women with ongoing versus new partners. High gel adherence was compared with low gel adherence (85-100 vs. <85 % of last vaginal sex acts reported with gel use, respectively) in multivariable models to assess associations with partner change. Overall 7 % of women (n = 123) reported a new partner and 41 % (51) of those reported a new husband. Median gel adherence was reported to be 100 % in women with ongoing partners and 75 % for women with new partners (p < 0.001). In women reporting no gel use in their last sex act, only 12.5 % of the women with a new partner and none of those with an ongoing partner reported using condoms (p < 0.001). Fewer women with new partners reported using both the gel and condom during the last sex act as compared to women with ongoing partners (median 50 vs. 71.4 %, p < 0.001). After adjusting for age, site, education level, and sexual frequency, women with ongoing partners were more likely to report high gel adherence than those with new partners (AOR 2.5, 95 % CI 1.6, 3.9). This pattern persisted when gel use over time was compared between women with new versus ongoing partners. In the HPTN 035 trial, women with new partners had higher HIV incidence and reported less gel use and higher condom use. Specific counseling and support are needed to help women use potential HIV prevention methods, including microbicides, when they are changing partners.

Project description:The objective of this study was to describe the impact of intense counseling to reduce vaginal hygiene practices and its effect on bacterial vaginosis. A secondary data analysis of the HIV Prevention Trials Network 035 study was undertaken, focusing on HIV-negative, nonpregnant women who were at least 18 years old, in seven African sites and one US site. At enrollment and during follow-up quarterly visits, vaginal hygiene practices were determined by face-to-face administration of a behavioral assessment questionnaire. Vaginal hygiene practices were categorized as insertion into the vagina of (1) nothing, (2) water only, and (3) other substances with or without water. Each practice was quantified by frequency and type/combination of inserted substances. At quarterly visits, diagnosis of bacterial vaginosis was made using the Nugent score. Trends for vaginal hygiene practices and bacterial vaginosis were evaluated using generalized estimating equation models. A total of 3087 participants from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 035 study were eligible for this analysis. At enrollment, 1859 (60%) reported recent vaginal hygiene practices. By one year, this figure had decreased to 1019 (33%) with counseling. However, bacterial vaginosis prevalence remained consistent across the study observation period, with 36%-38% of women testing positive for the condition ( p for trend = 0.27). Overall, those who reported douching with water only (AOR = 1.03, 95%CI: 0.94-1.13) and those who reported inserting other substances (AOR= 0.98, 95%CI: 0.88-1.09) in the past quarter were not more likely to have bacterial vaginosis compared to those who reported no insertions. However, in South Africa, an increase in bacterial vaginosis was seen among those who reported inserting other substances (AOR: 1.48, 95%CI: 1.17, 1.88). In conclusion, targeted counseling against vaginal hygiene practices resulted in change in self-reported behavior but did not have an impact on bacterial vaginosis diagnosis in all but one site.

Dataset Information

Estimating the effectiveness in HIV prevention trials by incorporating the exposure process: application to HPTN 035 data.

Publications

Estimating the effectiveness in HIV prevention trials by incorporating the exposure process: application to HPTN 035 data.

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