Redefining the HIV epidemic in Nigeria: from national to state level.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Governments are increasingly recognizing the need to focus limited HIV resources on specific geographic areas and specific populations to have a greater impact. Nigeria, with the second largest HIV epidemic in the world, is an important example of where more localized programming has the potential to improve the efficiency of the HIV response.Methods
Using Spectrum software we modelled the Nigerian HIV epidemic using two methods: First, we created national HIV estimates using trends in urban and rural areas. Second, we created national HIV estimates using trends from each of the 37 states in Nigeria and aggregated these results. In both instances we used HIV surveillance data from antenatal clinics and household surveys and aggregated the trends to determine the national epidemic.Results
The state models showed divergent trends in the 37 states. Comparing the national results calculated from the two methods resulted in different conclusions. In the aggregated state files, adult HIV incidence in Nigeria was stable between 2005 and 2013 (change of -6%), whereas the urban and rural file suggested incidence was decreasing over the same time (change of -50%). This difference was also reflected in the HIV prevalence trends, although the two methods showed similar trends in AIDS-related mortality. The two models had similar adult HIV prevalence in 2013: 3.0% (2.0-4.5%) in the aggregated state files versus 3.2% (3.0-3.5%) in the urban/rural file.Conclusion
The state-level estimates provide insight into the variations of the HIV epidemic in each state and provide useful information for programme managers. However, the reliability of the results is highly dependent on the amount and quality of data available from each sub-national area.
SUBMITTER: Mahy M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4247268 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Redefining the HIV epidemic in Nigeria: from national to state level.
Mahy Mary M Nzima Masauso M Ogungbemi Michael K MK Ogbang Doris A DA Morka Mercy Chinenye MC Stover John J
AIDS (London, England) 20141101
<h4>Background</h4>Governments are increasingly recognizing the need to focus limited HIV resources on specific geographic areas and specific populations to have a greater impact. Nigeria, with the second largest HIV epidemic in the world, is an important example of where more localized programming has the potential to improve the efficiency of the HIV response.<h4>Methods</h4>Using Spectrum software we modelled the Nigerian HIV epidemic using two methods: First, we created national HIV estimate ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe U.S. Ending the HIV epidemic (EHE) plan aims to reduce annual HIV incidence by 90% by 2030, by first focusing interventions on 57 regions (EHE jurisdictions) that contributed to more than 50% of annual HIV diagnoses. Mathematical models that project HIV incidence evaluate the impact of interventions and inform intervention decisions. However, current models are either national level, which do not consider jurisdictional heterogeneity, or independent jurisdiction-specific, which do not consider cross jurisdictional interactions. Data suggests that a significant proportion of persons have sexual partnerships outside their own jurisdiction. However, the sensitivity of these jurisdictional interactions on model outcomes and intervention decisions hasn't been studied.MethodsWe developed an ordinary differential equations based compartmental model to generate national-level projections of HIV in the U.S., through dynamic simulations of 96 epidemiological sub-models representing 54 EHE and 42 non-EHE jurisdictions. A Bernoulli equation modeled HIV-transmissions using a mixing matrix to simulate sexual partnerships within and outside jurisdictions. To evaluate sensitivity of jurisdictional interactions on model outputs, we analyzed 16 scenarios, combinations of a) proportion of sexual partnerships mixing outside jurisdiction: no-mixing, low-level-mixing-within-state, high-level-mixing-within-state, or high-level-mixing-within-and-outside-state; b) jurisdictional heterogeneity in care and demographics: homogenous or heterogeneous; and c) intervention assumptions for 2019-2030: baseline or EHE-plan (diagnose, treat, and prevent).ResultsChange in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios varied by EHE and non-EHE jurisdictions and aggregation-level. When assuming jurisdictional heterogeneity and baseline-intervention, the change in aggregated incidence ranged from - 2 to 0% for EHE and 5 to 21% for non-EHE, but within each jurisdiction it ranged from - 31 to 46% for EHE and - 18 to 109% for non-EHE. Thus, incidence estimates were sensitive to jurisdictional mixing more at the jurisdictional level. As a result, jurisdiction-specific HIV-testing intervals inferred from the model to achieve the EHE-plan were also sensitive, e.g., when no-mixing scenarios suggested testing every 1 year (or 3 years), the three mixing-levels suggested testing every 0.8 to 1.2 years, 0.6 to 1.5 years, and 0.6 to 1.5 years, respectively (or 2.6 to 3.5 years, 2 to 4.8 years, and 2.2 to 4.1 years, respectively). Similar patterns were observed when assuming jurisdictional homogeneity, however, change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios were high even in aggregated incidence.ConclusionsAccounting jurisdictional mixing and heterogeneity could improve model-based analyses.
| S-EPMC9701422 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:HIV and AIDS care requires frequent visits to the hospital. Patient satisfaction with care services during hospital visits is important in considering quality and outcome of care. Increasing number of patients needing treatment led to the decentralization of care to lower level hospitals without documented patient perception on the quality of services. The study determined and compared patient satisfaction with HIV and AIDS care services in public and private hospitals and identified the factors that influence it. METHOD:This was a cross-sectional comparative study of patients receiving antiretroviral treatment in public and private hospitals in Anambra State. The sampling frame for the hospitals consisted of all registered public and private hospitals that have rendered antiretroviral services for at least one year. There were three public urban, nine public rural, eleven private urban and ten private rural hospitals that met the criteria. One hospital was selected by simple random sampling (balloting) from each group. Out of a total of 6334 eligible patients (had received ART for at least 12 months), 1270 were recruited by simple random sampling from the hospitals proportionate to size of patient in each hospital. Adapted, validated and pretested Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (PSQ18) was interviewer-administered on consenting patients as an exit interview. A Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis were conducted at 5% level of significance. RESULT:There were 635 participants each in public and private hospitals. Of the 408 patients who had primary education or less, 265(65.0%) accessed care in public hospitals compared to 143(35.0%) who accessed care in private hospital (p<0.001). Similarly, of the 851 patients who were currently married, 371 (43.6%) accessed their care in public compared to 480 (56.4%) who accessed care in private (p<0.001). The proportion of participants who were satisfied were more in public hospitals (71.5%) compared to private hospitals (41.4%). The difference in proportion was statistically significant (?2 = 116.85, p <0.001). Good retention in care [AOR: 2.3, 95%CI: 1.5-3.5] was the only predictor of satisfaction in public hospitals while primary education [adjusted odds ratio (AOR); 2.3, 95%CI: 1.5-3.4], residing in rural area [AOR: 2.0, 95%CI: 1.4-2.9], and once-daily dosing [AOR: 3.2, 95%CI: 2.1-4.8] were independent predictors of patient' satisfaction among private hospital respondents. CONCLUSION:Satisfaction was higher among patients attending public hospitals. Patient's satisfaction was strongly associated with retention in care among patients in public hospitals. However, in private hospitals, it was influenced by the patient's level of education, place of residence, and antiretroviral medication dosing frequency.
| S-EPMC6203402 | biostudies-other
Project description:IntroductionSocial network strategies have been used by health departments to identify undiagnosed cases of HIV. Heterosexual cycle (HET4) of National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) is a social network strategy implemented in jurisdictions. The main objectives of this research are to 1) evaluate the utility of the NHBS HET cycle data for network analysis; 2) to apply statistical analysis in support of previous HIV research, as well as to develop new research results focused on demographic variables and prevention/intervention with respect to heterosexual HIV risk; and 3) to employ NHBS data to inform policy with respect to the EHE plan.MethodWe used data from the 2016 NHBS HET4 (DC). A total of 747 surveys were collected. We used the free social-network analysis package, GEPHI, for all network visualization using adjacency matrix representation. We additionally conducted logistic regression analysis to examine the association of selected variables with HIV status in three models representing 1) demographic and economic effects, 2) behavioral effects, and 3) prevention-intervention effects.ResultsThe results showed 3% were tested positive. Seed 1 initiated the largest networks with 426 nodes (15 positives); seed 4 with 273 nodes (6 positives). Seed 3 had 35 nodes (2 positives). All 23 HIV diagnoses were recruited from 4 zip-codes across DC. The risk of testing positive was higher among people high-school dropouts (Relative Risk (RR) (25.645); 95 CI% 5.699, 115.987), unemployed ((4.267); 1.295, 14.064), returning citizens ((14.319); 4.593, 44.645). We also found in the final model higher association of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) awareness among those tested negative ((4.783); 1.042, 21.944) and HIV intervention in the past 12 months with those tested positive ((17.887); 2.350,136.135).ConclusionThe network visualization was used to address the primary aim of the analysis-evaluate the success of the implementation of the NHBS as a social network strategy to find new diagnoses. NHBS remains one of the strongest behavioral supplements for DC's HIV planning activities. As part of the evaluation process our analysis helps to understand the impact of demographic, behavioral, and prevention efforts on peoples' HIV status. We strongly recommend other jurisdictions use network visualizations to evaluate the efficacy in reaching hidden populations.
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Project description:National vaccination coverage estimates from household surveys are widely used in monitoring and planning of immunization programs. In Nigeria, survey-reported national coverage estimates have shown large fluctuations in the past few years. In this paper, we examine the impact of state-level survey weighting on Nigeria's national vaccination coverage estimation. In particular, we focus three vaccination-related outcomes among children aged 12-23 months: the coverage of the third dose of diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus vaccine (DPT3); the coverage of the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1); and the availability rate of home-based vaccination record (HBR). We compare the sample selection and weight assignment of three major survey programs in Nigeria, and show that considerable portions of the changes in survey-reported national coverage estimates can be explained by shifts in state-level weights. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of state weighting method in estimating aggregated national coverage figures and provides important context for interpreting changes in coverage estimates between surveys in the future.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:National programs are often developed with little consideration to the sub-national local factors that might affect program success. These factors include political support, capacity for implementation of program and variation in malnutrition indices being tackled. State context factors are evident in the distribution of malnutrition (e.g. high prevalence or gap among Local Government Areas), in the implementation of nutrition-sensitive interventions (e.g. access to early childhood education) and in the political economic context (e.g. presence of external funding agencies). Context is shaped by the economy, population, religion, and poverty, which impact everyday lives. Considering these contexts, a roadmap was developed and validated. The aim of this paper is to report expert review and stakeholder validation to determine feasibility of the developed contextualised roadmap for two Nigerian states. METHODS:A validation tool was developed and reviewed using three experts. The content review occurred in two rounds to obtain recommendation and revisions of the developed roadmap and the validation tool. A pilot test of the roadmap and validation tool was done using two stakeholders in South Africa. The roadmap and the validation tool were then sent to the stakeholders and potential end-users in Nigeria using electronic media. Two research assistants were also engaged to deliver and collect hard copies to those who preferred it. RESULTS:Of the ten stakeholders invited, nine responded. All participants showed an adequate understanding of the roadmap as evidenced by the scores given. Responses regarding the translation of the roadmap to implementation varied. The majority (86,6%) either strongly agreed or agreed that the actions were translatable (43.0 and 43.6% respectively). CONCLUSIONS:The final roadmap comprises of actions that are appropriate for the state's context. It is recommended that stakeholders or end-users of any programme must be involved in the validation of such contextual programmes to improve chances of success.
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Project description:BackgroundHealth systems need to be evaluated to ascertain if they are meeting their objectives. There is an increased interest in health system responsiveness (HSR) as a means to appraise health systems. This becomes vital as we put people at the centre of integrated health systems and put a premium on their rights and perspectives. Thus, this study assessed the levels, distribution and factors associated with HSR in Oyo State.MethodsThe study was a cross-sectional study with 717 adults, who had used an out-patient health facility in the preceding 12 months, interviewed using a semi-structured, interviewer-administered questionnaire. HSR was measured on a multi-domain and multi-item (7 domains and 20 items) 5-point Likert scale that was developed by the WHO to measure HSR globally. Summary scores were computed for level, distribution and the most important domains of HSR. Determinants of poor HSR were determined using binomial logistic regression. The level of statistical significance was set at 5%.ResultsThe overall level of HSR was 47%. The highest-rated domains were confidentiality (72%), dignity (64%) and choice (60%), while the least rated were prompt attention (43%) and communication (52%). The overall distribution of HSR was 0.228 (range of 0 to 1) with the domains of prompt attention (0.595) and choice (0.506) being the most unequally distributed. The most important domains were communication, prompt attention and dignity. The least important domains were choice and confidentiality. The factors associated with poor HSR (overall) were no formal education, (OR = 2.81; 95% CI: 1.35-5.86), primary education as the highest level of education (OR = 2.19; 95% CI: 1.28-3.75), poor socioeconomic class (OR = 1.86; 95% CI: 1.23-2.80), using a government-owned facility (OR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.11-2.19) and not using the usual health facility (OR = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.13-2.53).ConclusionsThe overall level of HSR in Oyo State was low with the domains of prompt attention, communication and autonomy being the least rated domains. Therefore, concerted efforts should be targeted at improving HSR as this will improve wellbeing, health system utilization, and the overall health system.
| S-EPMC9281151 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the South, people living with HIV experience worse health outcomes than in other geographic regions, likely due to regional political, structural, and socioeconomic factors. We describe the neighborhoods of women (n = 1,800) living with and without HIV in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS), a cohort with Southern sites in Chapel Hill, NC; Atlanta, GA; Birmingham, AL; Jackson, MS; and Miami, FL; and non-Southern sites in Brooklyn, NY; Bronx, NY; Washington, DC; San Francisco, CA; and Chicago, IL. In 2014, participants' addresses were geocoded and matched to several administrative data sources. There were a number of differences between the neighborhood contexts of Southern and non-Southern WIHS participants. Southern states had the lowest income eligibility thresholds for family Medicaid, and consequently higher proportions of uninsured individuals. Modeled proportions of income devoted to transportation were much higher in Southern neighborhoods (Location Affordability Index of 28-39% compared to 16-23% in non-Southern sites), and fewer participants lived in counties where hospitals reported providing HIV care (55% of GA, 63% of NC, and 76% of AL participants lived in a county with a hospital that provided HIV care, compared to >90% at all other sites). Finally, the states with the highest adult incarceration rates were all in the South (per 100,000 residents: AL 820, MS 788, GA 686, FL 644). Many Southern states opted not to expand Medicaid, invest little in transportation infrastructure, and have staggering rates of incarceration. Resolution of racial and geographic disparities in HIV health outcomes will require addressing these structural barriers.
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Project description:INTRODUCTION:The period of transition from pediatric to adult care has been associated with poor health outcomes among 10-19 year old adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV). This has prompted a focus on the quality of transition services, especially in high ALHIV-burden countries. Due to lack of guidelines, there are no healthcare transition standards for Nigeria's estimated 240,000 ALHIV. We conducted a nationwide survey to characterize routine transition procedures for Nigerian ALHIV. MATERIALS AND METHODS:This cross-sectional survey was conducted at public healthcare facilities supported by five local HIV service implementing partners. Comprehensive HIV treatment facilities with ≥1 year of HIV service provision and ≥20 ALHIVs enrolled were selected. A structured questionnaire assessed availability of treatment, care and transition services for ALHIV. Transition was defined as a preparatory process catering to the medical, psychosocial, and educational needs of adolescents moving from pediatric to adult care. Comprehensive transition services were defined by 6 core elements: policy, tracking and monitoring, readiness evaluation, planning, transfer of care, and follow-up. RESULTS:All 152 eligible facilities were surveyed and comprised 106 (69.7%) secondary and 46 (30.3%) tertiary centers at which 17,662 ALHIV were enrolled. The majority (73, 48.3%) of the 151 facilities responding to the "clinic type" question were family-centered and saw all clients together regardless of age. Only 42 (27.8%) facilities had an adolescent-specific HIV clinic; 53 (35.1%) had separate pediatric/adolescent and adult HIV clinics, of which 39 (73.6%) reported having a transfer/transition policy. Only 6 (15.4%) of these 39 facilities reported having a written protocol. There was a bimodal peak at 15 and 18 years for age of ALHIV transfer to adult care. No surveyed facility met the study definition for comprehensive transition services. CONCLUSIONS:Facilities surveyed were more likely to have non-specialized HIV treatment services and had loosely-defined, abrupt transfer versus transition practices, which lacked the core transition elements. Evidence-based standards of transitional care tailored to non-specialized HIV treatment programs need to be established to optimize transition outcomes among ALHIV in Nigeria and in similar settings.
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Project description:Human Parvovirus B19 (B19V) is a global infection with over 50% of infected children residing in sub-Saharan Africa. It causes persistent anaemia under immuno-compromised states such as HIV infection, thereby complicating the course of HIV infection. This study was therefore designed to determine the prevalence and genotypes of B19V among HIV positive children. Blood specimens were collected from HIV positive children and genomic DNA extracted and assayed for the presence of Parvovirus B19 DNA using polymerase chain reaction and the product detected by gel electrophoresis. Amplicons for positive PCR were purified and sequenced for genotype analysis. For the purpose of comparison (differences in the sequences of the NS1/VP1u region), nine HIV negative children were enrolled in this study. Two (1.3%) of the 158 HIV infected children were positive for Parvovirus B19 DNA. Analysis of the results showed a low prevalence of Parvovirus B19 among HIV positive children but a significant relationship was established between Parvovirus B19 infection and the severity of anaemia (p=0.015). Phylogenetic analysis of the sequence data showed that all the B19 virus isolates detected in this study were genotype 1. This study therefore has been able to give an insight to the prevalence and circulating genotypes of Parvovirus B19 among HIV infected children and also establishing a relationship between anaemia and parvovirus B19 infection.
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Project description:UnlabelledHuman leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I-associated polymorphisms in HIV-1 that persist upon transmission to HLA-mismatched hosts may spread in the population as the epidemic progresses. Transmission of HIV-1 sequences containing such adaptations may undermine cellular immune responses to the incoming virus in future hosts. Building upon previous work, we investigated the extent of HLA-associated polymorphism accumulation in HIV-1 polymerase (Pol) through comparative analysis of linked HIV-1/HLA class I genotypes sampled during historic (1979 to 1989; n = 338) and modern (2001 to 2011; n = 278) eras from across North America (Vancouver, BC, Canada; Boston, MA; New York, NY; and San Francisco, CA). Phylogenies inferred from historic and modern HIV-1 Pol sequences were star-like in shape, with an inferred most recent common ancestor (epidemic founder virus) sequence nearly identical to the modern North American subtype B consensus sequence. Nevertheless, modern HIV-1 Pol sequences exhibited roughly 2-fold-higher patristic (tip-to-tip) genetic distances than historic sequences, with HLA pressures likely driving ongoing diversification. Moreover, the frequencies of published HLA-associated polymorphisms in individuals lacking the selecting HLA class I allele was on average ∼2.5-fold higher in the modern than in the historic era, supporting their spread in circulation, though some remained stable in frequency during this time. Notably, polymorphisms restricted by protective HLA alleles appear to be spreading to a greater relative extent than others, though these increases are generally of modest absolute magnitude. However, despite evidence of polymorphism spread, North American hosts generally remain at relatively low risk of acquiring an HIV-1 polymerase sequence substantially preadapted to their HLA profiles, even in the present era.ImportanceHLA class I-restricted cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) escape mutations in HIV-1 that persist upon transmission may accumulate in circulation over time, potentially undermining host antiviral immunity to the transmitted viral strain. We studied >600 experimentally collected HIV-1 polymerase sequences linked to host HLA information dating back to 1979, along with phylogenetically reconstructed HIV-1 sequences dating back to the virus' introduction into North America. Overall, our results support the gradual spread of many-though not all-HIV-1 polymerase immune escape mutations in circulation over time. This is consistent with recent observations from other global regions, though the extent of polymorphism accumulation in North America appears to be lower than in populations with high seroprevalence, older epidemics, and/or limited HLA diversity. Importantly, the risk of acquiring an HIV-1 polymerase sequence at transmission that is substantially preadapted to one's HLA profile remains relatively low in North America, even in the present era.
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