Regime shifts in exploited marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gardmark A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4247399 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Worldwide declines of fish stocks raise concerns about deleterious consequences of harvesting for stock abundances and individual life histories, and call for appropriate recovery strategies. Fishes in exploited stocks mature earlier at either larger or smaller sizes due to both genetic and plastic responses. The latter occur commonly when reduced competition for food leads to faster growth. Using a size-structured consumer-resource model, which accounts for both genetic and plastic responses, we show that fisheries-induced evolutionary changes in individual life history and stock properties can easily become irreversible. As a result of annual spawning, early maturation at small sizes and late maturation at large sizes can become alternative, evolutionarily and ecologically stable states under otherwise identical environmental conditions. Exploitation of late-maturing populations can then induce an evolutionary regime shift to smaller maturation sizes associated with stepwise, 1-year decreases in age at first reproduction. Complete and early fishing moratoria slowly reverse this process, but belated or partial closure of fisheries may accelerate or even instigate further evolution to smaller sizes at maturation. We suggest that stepwise decreases in maturation age can be used as early warnings of upcoming evolutionary changes, and should inspire timely restrictions of fisheries.
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Project description:Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980-2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years.
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Project description:Complex natural systems, spanning from individuals and populations to ecosystems and social-ecological systems, often exhibit abrupt reorganizations in response to changing stressors, known as regime shifts or critical transitions. Theory suggests that such systems feature folded stability landscapes with fluctuating resilience, fold-bifurcations, and alternate basins of attraction. However, the implementation of such features to elucidate response mechanisms in an empirical context is scarce, due to the lack of generic approaches to quantify resilience dynamics in individual natural systems. Here, we introduce an Integrated Resilience Assessment (IRA) framework: a three-step analytical process to assess resilience and construct stability landscapes of empirical systems. The proposed framework involves a multivariate analysis to estimate holistic system indicator variables, non-additive modelling to estimate alternate attractors, and a quantitative resilience assessment to scale stability landscapes. We implement this framework to investigate the temporal development of the Mediterranean marine communities in response to sea warming during 1985-2013, using fisheries landings data. Our analysis revealed a nonlinear tropicalisation of the Mediterranean Sea, expressed as abrupt shifts to regimes dominated by thermophilic species. The approach exemplified here for the Mediterranean Sea, revealing previously unknown resilience dynamics driven by climate forcing, can elucidate resilience and shifts in other complex systems.
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Project description:Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.
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Project description:Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.
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Project description:We test the validity of using the regime shift theory to account for differences in environmental state of coastal lagoons as a response to variation in connectivity with the sea, using free-living nematodes as a surrogate. The study is based on sediment samples from the inner and outer portions of 15 coastal lagoons (5 open to the sea, 5 intermittently open/closed, and 5 permanently closed lakes) along the southern coast of Brazil. Environmental data suggested that there are two contrasting environmental conditions, with coastal lakes being significantly different from open and intermittent lagoons. Marine nematode assemblages corroborate these two mutually exclusive alternative stable states (open vs. closed systems), but assemblages from the intermittently open/closed lagoons showed a gradual change in species composition between both systems independently of the environmental conditions. The gradient in the structural connectivity among lagoons and the sea, due to their regime shifts, changes the movement of resources and consumers and the internal physico-chemical gradients, directly affecting regional species diversity. Whereas openness to the sea increased similarity in nematode assemblage composition among connected lagoons, isolation increased dissimilarity among closed lagoons. Our results from a large-scale sampling program indicated that as lagoons lose connectivity with the sea, shifting the environmental state, local processes within individual intermittently open/closed lagoons and particularly within coastal lakes become increasingly more important in structuring these communities. The main implication of these findings is that depending on the local stable state we may end up with alternative regional patterns of biodiversity.
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