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Stem cell transplantation as a dynamical system: are clinical outcomes deterministic?

ABSTRACT: Outcomes in stem cell transplantation (SCT) are modeled using probability theory. However, the clinical course following SCT appears to demonstrate many characteristics of dynamical systems, especially when outcomes are considered in the context of immune reconstitution. Dynamical systems tend to evolve over time according to mathematically determined rules. Characteristically, the future states of the system are predicated on the states preceding them, and there is sensitivity to initial conditions. In SCT, the interaction between donor T cells and the recipient may be considered as such a system in which, graft source, conditioning, and early immunosuppression profoundly influence immune reconstitution over time. This eventually determines clinical outcomes, either the emergence of tolerance or the development of graft versus host disease. In this paper, parallels between SCT and dynamical systems are explored and a conceptual framework for developing mathematical models to understand disparate transplant outcomes is proposed.

SUBMITTER: Toor AA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4253954 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stem cell transplantation as a dynamical system: are clinical outcomes deterministic?

Toor Amir A AA Kobulnicky Jared D JD Salman Salman S Roberts Catherine H CH Jameson-Lee Max M Meier Jeremy J Scalora Allison A Sheth Nihar N Koparde Vishal V Serrano Myrna M Buck Gregory A GA Clark William B WB McCarty John M JM Chung Harold M HM Manjili Masoud H MH Sabo Roy T RT Neale Michael C MC

Frontiers in immunology 20141203

Outcomes in stem cell transplantation (SCT) are modeled using probability theory. However, the clinical course following SCT appears to demonstrate many characteristics of dynamical systems, especially when outcomes are considered in the context of immune reconstitution. Dynamical systems tend to evolve over time according to mathematically determined rules. Characteristically, the future states of the system are predicated on the states preceding them, and there is sensitivity to initial condit ...[more]

PMID: 25520720

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a curative procedure for a variety of conditions. Despite major advances, a plethora of adverse clinical outcomes can develop post-transplantation including graft-versus-host disease and infections, which remain the major causes of morbidity and mortality. There is increasing evidence that the gastrointestinal microbiota is associated with clinical outcomes post-hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Herein, we investigated the longitudinal dynamics of the gut microbiota and metabolome and potential associations to clinical outcomes in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation at a single centre.RESULTS: On admission (baseline), the majority of patients presented with a different gut microbial composition in comparison to healthy control children with a significantly lower alpha diversity. A further, marked decrease in alpha diversity was observed immediately post-transplantation and in most microbial diversity, and composition did not return to baseline status while hospitalized. Longitudinal trajectories identified continuous fluctuations in microbial composition, with the dominance of a single taxon in a significant proportion of patients. Using pam clustering, three clusters were observed in the dataset. Cluster 1 was common pre-transplantation, characterized by a higher abundance of Clostridium XIVa, Bacteroides and Lachnospiraceae; cluster 2 and cluster 3 were more common post-transplantation with higher abundance of Streptococcus and Staphylococcus in the former whilst Enterococcus, Enterobacteriaceae and Escherichia predominated in the latter. Cluster 3 was also associated with a higher risk of viraemia. Likewise, further multivariate analysis reveals Enterobacteriaceae, viraemia, use of total parenteral nutrition and various antimicrobials contributing towards cluster 3, Streptococcaceae, Staphylococcaceae, Neisseriaceae, vancomycin and metronidazole contributing towards cluster 2. Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcaceae, Bifidobacteriaceae and not being on total parenteral nutrition contributed to cluster 1. Untargeted metabolomic analyses revealed changes that paralleled fluctuations in microbiota composition; importantly, low fecal butyrate was associated with higher risk of viraemia.CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the frequent shifts and dominations in the gut microbiota of pediatric patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The study reveals associations between the fecal microbiota, metabolome and viraemia. To identify and explore the potential of microbial biomarkers that may predict risk of complications post-HSCT, larger multi-centre studies investigating longitudinal microbial profiling in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation are warranted.

Project description:Quantitative relationship between the magnitude of variation in minor histocompatibility antigens (mHA) and graft versus host disease (GVHD) pathophysiology in stem cell transplant (SCT) donor-recipient pairs (DRP) is not established. In order to elucidate this relationship, whole exome sequencing (WES) was performed on 27 HLA matched related (MRD), & 50 unrelated donors (URD), to identify nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). An average 2,463 SNPs were identified in MRD, and 4,287 in URD DRP (p<0.01); resulting peptide antigens that may be presented on HLA class I molecules in each DRP were derived in silico (NetMHCpan ver2.0) and the tissue expression of proteins these were derived from determined (GTex). MRD DRP had an average 3,670 HLA-binding-alloreactive peptides, putative mHA (pmHA) with an IC50 of <500 nM, and URD, had 5,386 (p<0.01). To simulate an alloreactive donor cytotoxic T cell response, the array of pmHA in each patient was considered as an operator matrix modifying a hypothetical cytotoxic T cell clonal vector matrix; each responding T cell clone's proliferation was determined by the logistic equation of growth, accounting for HLA binding affinity and tissue expression of each alloreactive peptide. The resulting simulated organ-specific alloreactive T cell clonal growth revealed marked variability, with the T cell count differences spanning orders of magnitude between different DRP. Despite an estimated, uniform set of constants used in the model for all DRP, and a heterogeneously treated group of patients, higher total and organ-specific T cell counts were associated with cumulative incidence of moderate to severe GVHD in recipients. In conclusion, exome wide sequence differences and the variable alloreactive peptide binding to HLA in each DRP yields a large range of possible alloreactive donor T cell responses. Our findings also help understand the apparent randomness observed in the development of alloimmune responses.

Project description:BackgroundHaematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a curative procedure for a variety of conditions. Despite major advances, a plethora of adverse clinical outcomes can develop post-transplantation including graft-versus-host disease and infections, which remain the major causes of morbidity and mortality. There is increasing evidence that the gastrointestinal microbiota is associated with clinical outcomes post-haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Herein, we investigated the longitudinal dynamics of the gut microbiota and metabolome and potential associations to clinical outcomes in paediatric haematopoietic stem cell transplantation at a single centre.ResultsOn admission (baseline), the majority of patients presented with a different gut microbial composition in comparison with healthy control children with a significantly lower alpha diversity. A further, marked decrease in alpha diversity was observed immediately post-transplantation and in most microbial diversity, and composition did not return to baseline status whilst hospitalised. Longitudinal trajectories identified continuous fluctuations in microbial composition, with the dominance of a single taxon in a significant proportion of patients. Using pam clustering, three clusters were observed in the dataset. Cluster 1 was common pre-transplantation, characterised by a higher abundance of Clostridium XIVa, Bacteroides and Lachnospiraceae; cluster 2 and cluster 3 were more common post-transplantation with a higher abundance of Streptococcus and Staphylococcus in the former whilst Enterococcus, Enterobacteriaceae and Escherichia predominated in the latter. Cluster 3 was also associated with a higher risk of viraemia. Likewise, further multivariate analysis reveals Enterobacteriaceae, viraemia, use of total parenteral nutrition and various antimicrobials contributing towards cluster 3, Streptococcaceae, Staphylococcaceae, Neisseriaceae, vancomycin and metronidazole contributing towards cluster 2. Lachnospiraceae, Ruminococcaceae, Bifidobacteriaceae and not being on total parenteral nutrition contributed to cluster 1. Untargeted metabolomic analyses revealed changes that paralleled fluctuations in microbiota composition; importantly, low faecal butyrate was associated with a higher risk of viraemia.ConclusionsThese findings highlight the frequent shifts and dominations in the gut microbiota of paediatric patients undergoing haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The study reveals associations between the faecal microbiota, metabolome and viraemia. To identify and explore the potential of microbial biomarkers that may predict the risk of complications post-HSCT, larger multi-centre studies investigating the longitudinal microbial profiling in paediatric haematopoietic stem cell transplantation are warranted. Video abstract.

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Stem cell transplantation as a dynamical system: are clinical outcomes deterministic?

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Stem cell transplantation as a dynamical system: are clinical outcomes deterministic?

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