Cardiovascular disease risk models and longitudinal changes in cognition: a systematic review.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Background
Cardiovascular disease and its risk factors have consistently been associated with poor cognitive function and incident dementia. Whether cardiovascular disease prediction models, developed to predict an individual's risk of future cardiovascular disease or stroke, are also informative for predicting risk of cognitive decline and dementia is not known.Objective
The objective of this systematic review was to compare cohort studies examining the association between cardiovascular disease risk models and longitudinal changes in cognitive function or risk of incident cognitive impairment or dementia.Materials and methods
Medline, PsychINFO, and Embase were searched from inception to March 28, 2014. From 3,413 records initially screened, 21 were included.Results
The association between numerous different cardiovascular disease risk models and cognitive outcomes has been tested, including Framingham and non-Framingham risk models. Five studies examined dementia as an outcome; fourteen studies examined cognitive decline or incident cognitive impairment as an outcome; and two studies examined both dementia and cognitive changes as outcomes. In all studies, higher cardiovascular disease risk scores were associated with cognitive changes or risk of dementia. Only four studies reported model prognostic performance indices, such as Area Under the Curve (AUC), for predicting incident dementia or cognitive impairment and these studies all examined non-Framingham Risk models (AUC range: 0.74 to 0.78).Conclusions
Cardiovascular risk prediction models are associated with cognitive changes over time and risk of dementia. Such models are easily obtainable in clinical and research settings and may be useful for identifying individuals at high risk of future cognitive decline and dementia.
SUBMITTER: Harrison SL
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4257686 | biostudies-literature | 2014
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Cardiovascular disease risk models and longitudinal changes in cognition: a systematic review.
Harrison Stephanie L SL Ding Jie J Tang Eugene Y H EY Siervo Mario M Robinson Louise L Jagger Carol C Stephan Blossom C M BC
PloS one 20141205 12
<h4>Background</h4>Cardiovascular disease and its risk factors have consistently been associated with poor cognitive function and incident dementia. Whether cardiovascular disease prediction models, developed to predict an individual's risk of future cardiovascular disease or stroke, are also informative for predicting risk of cognitive decline and dementia is not known.<h4>Objective</h4>The objective of this systematic review was to compare cohort studies examining the association between cardi ...[more]
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Project description:Objective To provide an overview of prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population.Design Systematic review.Data sources Medline and Embase until June 2013.Eligibility criteria for study selection Studies describing the development or external validation of a multivariable model for predicting CVD risk in the general population.Results 9965 references were screened, of which 212 articles were included in the review, describing the development of 363 prediction models and 473 external validations. Most models were developed in Europe (n=167, 46%), predicted risk of fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease (n=118, 33%) over a 10 year period (n=209, 58%). The most common predictors were smoking (n=325, 90%) and age (n=321, 88%), and most models were sex specific (n=250, 69%). Substantial heterogeneity in predictor and outcome definitions was observed between models, and important clinical and methodological information were often missing. The prediction horizon was not specified for 49 models (13%), and for 92 (25%) crucial information was missing to enable the model to be used for individual risk prediction. Only 132 developed models (36%) were externally validated and only 70 (19%) by independent investigators. Model performance was heterogeneous and measures such as discrimination and calibration were reported for only 65% and 58% of the external validations, respectively.Conclusions There is an excess of models predicting incident CVD in the general population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear owing to methodological shortcomings, incomplete presentation, and lack of external validation and model impact studies. Rather than developing yet another similar CVD risk prediction model, in this era of large datasets, future research should focus on externally validating and comparing head-to-head promising CVD risk models that already exist, on tailoring or even combining these models to local settings, and investigating whether these models can be extended by addition of new predictors.
| S-EPMC4868251 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Stroke is associated with an increased risk of dementia; however, the impact of stroke on cognition has been found to be variable, such that stroke survivors can show decline, remain stable, or revert to baseline cognitive functioning. Knowing the natural history of cognitive impairment after stroke is important for intervention. The aim of this systematic review is to investigate the longitudinal course of cognitive function in stroke survivors.Three electronic databases (Medline, Embase, PsycINFO) were searched using OvidSP from inception to July 15, 2016. Longitudinal studies with ?2 time points of cognitive assessment after stroke were included. In total, 5952 articles were retrieved and 14 were included. There was a trend toward significant deterioration in cognitive test scores in stroke survivors (8 studies). Cognitive stability (3 studies) and improvement (3 studies) were also demonstrated, although follow-up time tended to be shorter in these studies. Variables associated with impairment included age, ethnicity, premorbid cognitive performance, depression, stroke location, and history of previous stroke. Associations with APOE*E4 (apolipoprotein E with the E4 allele) allele status and sex were mixed.Stroke is associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline, but cognitive decline is not a consequence. Factors associated with decline, such as sociodemographic status, health-related comorbidity, stroke history, and clinical features could be used in models to predict future risk of dementia after stroke. A risk model approach could identify patients at greatest risk for timely intervention to reduce the frequency or delay the onset of poststroke cognitive impairment and dementia.
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Project description:BackgroundThere is an increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China, which represents the leading cause of mortality. Precise CVD risk identification is the fundamental prevention component. This study sought to systematically review the CVD risk prediction models derived and/or validated in the Chinese population to promote primary CVD prevention.MethodsReports were included if they derived or validated one or more CVD risk prediction models in the Chinese population. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP database, etc., were searched. The risk of bias was assessed with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Meta-analysis was performed in R using the package metamisc.ResultsFrom 55,183 records, 22 studies were included. Twelve studies derived 18 CVD risk prediction models, of which seven models were derived based on a multicentre cohort including more than two provinces of mainland China, and one was a model developed based on a New Zealand cohort including Chinese individuals. The number of predictors ranged from 6 to 22. The definitions of predicted outcomes showed considerable heterogeneity. Fourteen articles described 29 validations of 8 models. The Framingham model and pooled cohort equations (PCEs) are the most frequently validated foreign tools. Discrimination was acceptable and similar for men and women among models (0.60-0.83). The calibration estimates changed substantially from one population to another. Prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Risk in China (China-PAR) showed good calibration [observed/expected events ratio = 0.99, 95% PI (0.57,1.70)] and female sex [1.10, 95% PI (0.23,5.16)].ConclusionsSeveral models have been developed or validated in the Chinese population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear due to incomplete external validation and head-to-head comparison. Future research should focus on externally validating or tailoring these models to local settings.Trail registrationThis systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, CRD42021277453).
| S-EPMC9400257 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To identify, critically appraise and summarise existing systematic reviews on the impact of global cardiovascular risk assessment in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adults.Systematic review of systematic reviews published between January 2005 and October 2016 in The Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE or CINAHL databases, and post hoc analysis of primary trials.Systematic reviews of interventions involving global cardiovascular risk assessment relative to no formal risk assessment in adults with no history of CVD. The primary outcomes of interest were CVD-related morbidity and mortality and all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were systolic blood pressure (SBP), cholesterol and smoking.We identified six systematic reviews of variable but generally of low quality (mean Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews 4.2/11, range 0/11 to 7/11). No studies identified by the systematic reviews reported CVD-related morbidity or mortality or all-cause mortality. Meta-analysis of reported randomised controlled trials (RCTs) showed small reductions in SBP (mean difference (MD) -2.22?mm?Hg (95% CI -3.49 to -0.95); I2=66%; n=9; GRADE: very low), total cholesterol (MD -0.11?mmol/L (95% CI -0.20 to -0.02); I2=72%; n=5; GRADE: very low), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (MD -0.15?mmol/L (95% CI -0.26 to -0.05), I2=47%; n=4; GRADE: very low) and smoking cessation (RR 1.62 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.43); I2=17%; n=7; GRADE: low). The median follow-up time of reported RCTs was 12?months (range 2-36?months).The quality of existing systematic reviews was generally poor and there is currently no evidence reported in these reviews that the prospective use of global cardiovascular risk assessment translates to reductions in CVD morbidity or mortality. There are reductions in SBP, cholesterol and smoking but they may not be clinically significant given their small effect size and short duration. Resources need to be directed to conduct high-quality systematic reviews focusing on hard patient outcomes, and likely further primary RCTs.CRD42015019821.
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Project description:The high amount of saturated fatty acids (SFA) coupled with the rising availability and consumption of palm oil have lead to the assumption that palm oil contributes to the increased prevalence of cardiovascular diseases worldwide. We aimed at systematically synthesising the association of palm oil consumption with cardiovascular disease risk and cardiovascular disease-specific mortality.We systematically searched Central, Medline and Embase databases up to June 2017 without restriction on setting or language. We performed separate searches based on the outcomes: coronary heart disease and stroke, using keywords related to these outcomes and palm oil. We searched for published interventional and observational studies in adults (Age: >18 years old). Two investigators extracted data and a consensus was reached with involvement of a third. Only narrative synthesis was performed for all of the studies, as the data could not be pooled.Our search retrieved 2,738 citations for stroke with one included study and 1,777 citations for coronary heart disease (CHD) with four included studies. Palmitic acid was reported to be associated with risk of myocardial infarction (MI) (OR 2.76; 95%CI = 1.39-5.47). Total SFA intake was reported to be not significant for risk of MI. Varying intake of fried foods, highest contributor to total SFA with 36% of households using palm oil for frying, showed no significant associations to risk of MI. Odds of developing first non-fatal acute MI was higher in palm oil compared to soybean oil with 5% trans-fat (OR = 1.33; 95%CI = 1.09-1.62) than palm oil compared to soybean oil with 22% trans-fat (OR = 1.16; 95%CI = 0.86-1.56). Nevertheless, these risk estimates were non-significant and imprecise. The trend amongst those taking staple pattern diet (characterised by higher palm oil, red meat and added sugar consumption) was inconsistent across the factor score quintiles. During the years of 1980 and 1997, for every additional kilogram of palm oil consumed per-capita annually, CHD mortality risk was 68 deaths per 100,000 (95% CI = 21-115) in developing countries and 17 deaths per 100,000 (95%CI = 5.3-29) in high-income countries, whereas stroke was associated with 19 deaths per 100,000 (95%CI = -12-49) and 5.1 deaths per 100,000 (95% CI: -1.2-11) respectively. The evidence for the outcomes of this review were all graded as very low. The findings of this review should be interpreted with some caution, owing to the lack of a pooled effect estimate of the association, significant bias in selection criteria and confounding factors, inclusion of other food items together with palm oil, and the possible out-dated trend in the ecological study.In view of the abundance of palm oil in the market, quantifying its true association with CVD outcomes is challenging. The present review could not establish strong evidence for or against palm oil consumption relating to cardiovascular disease risk and cardiovascular disease-specific mortality. Further studies are needed to establish the association of palm oil with CVD. A healthy overall diet should still be prioritised for good cardiometabolic health.
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Project description:ObjectiveThe identification of methodology for modelling cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using longitudinal data and risk factor trajectories.MethodsWe screened MEDLINE-Ovid from inception until 3 June 2020. MeSH and text search terms covered three areas: data type, modelling type and disease area including search terms such as "longitudinal", "trajector*" and "cardiovasc*" respectively. Studies were filtered to meet the following inclusion criteria: longitudinal individual patient data in adult patients with ≥3 time-points and a CVD or mortality outcome. Studies were screened and analyzed by one author. Any queries were discussed with the other authors. Comparisons were made between the methods identified looking at assumptions, flexibility and software availability.ResultsFrom the initial 2601 studies returned by the searches 80 studies were included. Four statistical approaches were identified for modelling the longitudinal data: 3 (4%) studies compared time points with simple statistical tests, 40 (50%) used single-stage approaches, such as including single time points or summary measures in survival models, 29 (36%) used two-stage approaches including an estimated longitudinal parameter in survival models, and 8 (10%) used joint models which modelled the longitudinal and survival data together. The proportion of CVD risk prediction models created using longitudinal data using two-stage and joint models increased over time.ConclusionsSingle stage models are still heavily utilized by many CVD risk prediction studies for modelling longitudinal data. Future studies should fully utilize available longitudinal data when analyzing CVD risk by employing two-stage and joint approaches which can often better utilize the available data.
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Project description:BackgroundCognitive impairment affects up to 80 percent of the stroke population, however, both the available evidence about post-stroke cognition and the measures used to evaluate it longitudinally have not been well described. The aims of this systematic scoping review were: to identify and characterize studies evaluating cognition longitudinally after stroke; to summarize the cognitive instruments used and the domains they target; and to organize cognitive domains assessed using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF).MethodsWe used a systematic scoping approach to search for peer-reviewed articles involving adults with stroke that evaluated cognition longitudinally. Screening of titles, abstracts, and full reports was completed independently by two reviewers, across six electronic databases (PubMed, PsycInfo, Medline, Cinahl Plus, Embase, and Web of Science). Cognitive domains were mapped to an ICF function independently by the same two reviewers, using a previously tested, standardized approach.ResultsA total of 5,540 records were found; 257 were included, representing a total pooled sample of 120,860 stroke survivors. Of these studies, 200 (78%) provided specific cognitive outcomes from the longitudinal evaluations, 57 (22%) reported model predictions, and 77 (30%) included interventions. Cognition was evaluated with 356 unique instruments, targeting 95 distinct cognitive domains, and 17 mental functions from the ICF. The Mini-Mental State Examination was the most frequently used instrument (117 reports, 46%). Other tools used longitudinally were the Trail Making Test (17% of reports), tests of verbal fluency (14%), the Functional Independence Measure (14%), the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (13%), the Digit Span (11%), and the Stroop test (10%). Global cognition was evaluated in 170 reports (66%), followed by higher-level cognitive functioning (29%), memory (28%), language (21%), attention (21%), and perceptual skills (14%). Studies using functional (or performance-based) cognitive assessments over time were scarce (< 1%).ConclusionOur findings indicate that whilst there is a substantial number of studies available that report longitudinal evaluations of cognition after stroke, there is large variability in the measures used and the cognitive domains they target. Nonetheless, the available data for evaluation of cognition over time after stroke can be organized and described systematically.
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Project description:AimTo provide a comprehensive overview of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models for women and models that include female-specific predictors.MethodsWe performed a systematic review of CVD risk prediction models for women in the general population by updating a previous review. We searched Medline and Embase up to July 2017 and included studies in which; (a) a new model was developed, (b) an existing model was validated, or (c) a predictor was added to an existing model.ResultsA total of 285 prediction models for women have been developed, of these 160 (56%) were female-specific models, in which a separate model was developed solely in women and 125 (44%) were sex-predictor models. Out of the 160 female-specific models, 2 (1.3%) included one or more female-specific predictors (mostly reproductive risk factors). A total of 591 validations of sex-predictor or female-specific models were identified in 206 papers. Of these, 333 (56%) validations concerned nine models (five versions of Framingham, SCORE, Pooled Cohort Equations and QRISK). The median and pooled C statistics were comparable for sex-predictor and female-specific models. In 260 articles the added value of new predictors to an existing model was described, however in only 3 of these female-specific predictors (reproductive risk factors) were added.ConclusionsThere is an abundance of models for women in the general population. Female-specific and sex-predictor models have similar predictors and performance. Female-specific predictors are rarely included. Further research is needed to assess the added value of female-specific predictors to CVD models for women and provide physicians with a well-performing prediction model for women.
| S-EPMC6324808 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Overweight and obesity is a major public health concern that includes associations with the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors during childhood and adolescence as well as premature mortality in adults. Despite the high prevalence of childhood and adolescent obesity as well as adult CVD, individual studies as well as previous systematic reviews examining the relationship between childhood obesity and adult CVD have yielded conflicting results. The purpose of this study was to use the aggregate data meta-analytic approach to address this gap.Studies were included if they met the following criteria: (1) longitudinal and cohort studies (including case-cohort), (2) childhood exposure and adult outcomes collected on the same individual over time, (3) childhood obesity, as defined by the original study authors, (4) English-language articles, (5) studies published up to June, 2015, (6) one or more of the following CVD risk factors [systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL), and triglycerides (TG)], (7) outcome(s) not self-reported, and (8) exposure measurements (child's adiposity) assessed by health professionals, trained investigators, or self-reported. Studies were retrieved by searching three electronic databases as well as citation tracking. Fisher's r to z score was calculated for each study for each outcome. Pooled effect sizes were calculated using random-effects models while risk of bias was assessed using the STROBE instrument. In order to try and identify sources of heterogeneity, random-effects meta-regression was also performed.Of the 4840 citations reviewed, a total of 23 studies were included in the systematic review and 21 in the meta-analysis. The findings suggested that childhood obesity is significantly and positively associated with adult SBP (Zr = 0.11; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.14), DBP (Zr = 0.11; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.14), and TG (Zr =0.08; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.13), and significantly and inversely associated with adult HDL (Zr = -0.06; 95% CI: -0.10, -0.02). For those studies that adjusted for adult body mass index (BMI), associations were reversed, suggesting that adult BMI may be a potential mediator. Nine studies had more than 33% of items that placed them at an increased risk for bias.The results of this study suggest that childhood obesity may be a risk factor for selected adult CVD risk factors. However, a need exists for additional, higher-quality studies that include, but are not limited to, both unadjusted and adjusted measures such as BMI before any definitive conclusions can be reached.PROSPERO 2015: CRD42015019763 .
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Project description:AimsTo consolidate evidence to determine (i) the association between cardiovascular risk factors and health outcomes with coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19); and (ii) the impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular health.Methods and resultsAn umbrella review of systematic reviews was conducted. Fourteen medical databases and pre-print servers were searched from 1 January 2020 to 5 November 2020. The review focused on reviews rated as moderate or high-quality using the AMSTAR 2 tool. Eighty-four reviews were identified; 31 reviews were assessed as moderate quality and one was high-quality. The following risk factors were associated with higher mortality and severe COVID-19: renal disease [odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval) for mortality 3.07 (2.43-3.88)], diabetes mellitus [OR 2.09 (1.80-2.42)], hypertension [OR 2.50 (2.02-3.11)], smoking history [risk ratio (RR) 1.26 (1.20-1.32)], cerebrovascular disease [RR 2.75 (1.54-4.89)], and cardiovascular disease [OR 2.65 (1.86-3.78)]. Liver disease was associated with higher odds of mortality [OR 2.81 (1.31-6.01)], but not severe COVID-19. Current smoking was associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19 [RR 1.80 (1.14-2.85)], but not mortality. Obesity associated with higher odds of mortality [OR 2.18 (1.10-4.34)], but there was an absence of evidence for severe COVID-19. In patients hospitalized with COVID-19, the following incident cardiovascular complications were identified: acute heart failure (2%), myocardial infarction (4%), deep vein thrombosis (7%), myocardial injury (10%), angina (10%), arrhythmias (18%), pulmonary embolism (19%), and venous thromboembolism (25%).ConclusionMany of the risk factors identified as associated with adverse outcomes with COVID-19 are potentially modifiable. Primary and secondary prevention strategies that target cardiovascular risk factors may improve outcomes for people following COVID-19.
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