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Selection bias in rheumatic disease research.

ABSTRACT: The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias--a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic--in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the 'risk factor paradox'--a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research.

SUBMITTER: Choi HK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4260806 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Selection bias in rheumatic disease research.

Choi Hyon K HK Nguyen Uyen-Sa US Niu Jingbo J Danaei Goodarz G Zhang Yuqing Y

Nature reviews. Rheumatology 20140401 7

The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias--a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more pro ...[more]

PMID: 24686510

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Project description:BackgroundComparator selection is an important consideration in the design of observational research studies that evaluate potential associations between drug therapies and adverse event risks. It can affect the validity of observational study results, and potentially impact data interpretation, regulatory decision making, and patient medication access.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to assess the impact of comparator selection bias using two real-world case studies evaluating an increased rate of acute myocardial infarction (AMI).MethodsData from the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan® electronic medical claims database were used to conduct two retrospective observational cohort studies, utilizing a cohort new-user design, comparing AMI risk between testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) and phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors (PDE5is) in men treated for hypogonadism, and triptans versus other prescribed acute treatments for migraine in adults. All patients were enrolled continuously in a health plan (no enrollment gap > 31 consecutive days) for ≥ 1 year before index. Baseline period was defined as 365 days prior to index. Exposure was defined by prescription and outcome of interest was defined as occurrence of AMI. Using Cox proportional hazard models, primary analysis for the TRT cohort compared AMI risk between propensity score (PS)-matched TRT-treated and untreated patients; secondary analysis evaluated risk between PS-matched TRT-treated and PDE5i-treated patients. For the triptan cohort, primary analysis compared AMI/ischemic stroke risk between PS-matched triptan-treated and opiate-treated patients; secondary analysis evaluated risk between PS-matched triptan-treated and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID)-treated patients and PS-matched non-prescription-treated migraine patients and general patients.ResultsNo significant association between TRT and AMI was observed among TRT-treated (N = 198,528, mean age 52.4 ± 11.4 years) versus PDE5i-treated men (N = 198,528, mean age 52.3 ± 11.5 years) overall (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.01; 95% CI 0.95-1.07; p = 0.80). Among patients with prior cardiovascular disease (CVD), risk of AMI was significantly increased for TRT-treated versus PDE5i-treated patients (aHR 1.13; 95% CI 1.03-1.25). The triptan study included three comparisons (triptans [N = 436,642] vs prescription NSAIDs [N = 334,152], opiates [N = 55,234], and untreated migraine [N = 1,168,212]), and a positive control (untreated vs general non-migraine patients [N = 11,735,009]). Analyses of MI risk in migraine patients prescribed triptans versus NSAIDs/opiates had mixed results: the point estimate ranged from 0.33 to 0.84 depending on chosen study window.ConclusionsCardiovascular outcomes were not worse in hypogonadism patients with TRT versus PDE5i; however, a potential association with AMI was found in patients with prior CVD receiving TRT versus PDE5i. Findings pointed to a pseudo-protective effect of triptans versus untreated migraine patients or those potentially older and less healthy patients exposed to prescription NSAIDs or opiates. Triptan users should not be compared with those using other anti-migraine prescriptions when evaluating cardiovascular outcomes in migraine patients. Presence of high cardiovascular risks may contribute to channeling bias-healthier subjects being selected to receive treatment-highlighting the importance of choosing comparators wisely in observational studies.

Dataset Information

Selection bias in rheumatic disease research.

Publications

Selection bias in rheumatic disease research.

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